KENTUCKY DERBY BETTING REPORT
- Handicapper
- Hollywood Sports
- League
- HORSE RACING
- Competition
- Kentucky Derby
- Release Date
- 05/03/2025 06:52 PM
- Event Date
- 05/03/2025 06:55 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
#18 Sovereignty to Show +179
(DraftKings)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- At 6:57 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing #18 Sovereignty to Show at the Kentucky Derby. Sovereignty is my Best Bet to win this race. Trainer Bill Mott and jockey Junior Alvarado are proven duo together — and I expect they have this horse ready to run the best race of life tonight. He won at Churchill Downs in Grade 3 Street Sense last October — so he is proven on this track. He has been steadily improving in his five starts although his second-place finish in his last race at the Florida Derby might raise some eyebrows. Frankly, it looks like Mott took it easy on this horse in the preparation for that race since his Kentucky Derby slot was all but assured. His training has been great in what was an ideal preparation for the first of the triple crown races. He’s a closer so handling the 1 1/4 mile distance should be fine. His Best Beyer number is 95 which is solid but not spectacular — but his Beyer rating of 92 at the Florida Derby suggests he was being eased into the Derby. As of 6:00 PM ET, Sovereignty was at 9-1 odds. The last nine winners of the Kentucky Derby have come in at 8:1 or higher odds. Given the rain today, these horses are running in the slop which creates a significant wild card for the top favorites since only a handful of the horses in the field have experience in the rain or mud. I recommend across-the-board Win/Place/Show bets on #13 Sovereignty (but for grading purposes, the official play is for #13 Sovereignty to Show).
As a bonus, my Top Overlay Bet on the horse that offers the most value relative to the odds is on #9 Burnham Square. This horse came from behind to win the Bluegrass at Keeneland in his most recent race last month. He also won the Holy Bull. This is a late-style runner who has improved with each race over six starts. He posted a Beyer figure of 96 at the Bluegrass. The eighth pole position (after the scratch of Rodriguez) is ideal. The pace was expected to be very fast — but it is a mystery how the slop will impact things given the inexperience of these three-year-olds in these conditions. It would seem a fast pace would help Burnham Square. His jockey is Brian Hernandez, Jr. who won the Kentucky Derby last year. His trainer is the veteran Ian Wilkes who decided to race the horse here despite getting beaten badly by Sovereignty at the Fountain of Youth. Wilkes would not be racing this horse here if he was not a believer since this is just his second Derby entry in his career. At 18-1 odds as of 6:00 PM ET, I love the value in these chaotic conditions. Those odds place him 10th of the 19 horses — and five of the last six winners closed at 15:1 or higher odds. I recommend across-the-board Win/Place/Show bets.
As another bonus, my Long Shot Bet is on #13 Publisher who is listed at 31-1 odds as of 6:00 PM ET. The son of Derby winner American Pharaoh can close if the pace collapses in this race. Publisher is one of the few horses in the field with a proven track record in rain and mud. Last September, he finished in third place at maiden special weight here at Churchill Downs. Then in late December, he finished in second place at another maiden special weight at Oaklawn. He has steadily improved — and his jump from a Beyer rating of 86 to 95 in his most recent race in his second-place finish at the Arkansas Derby suggests he has taken another step forward. His jockey is the proven Irad Ortiz, Jr. and his trainer Steve Asmussen is one of the best in the business despite zero Derby winners in 26 entries. At these odds, I will take the chance that the streak will eventually end. I recommend across-the-board Win/Place/Show bets.
My bonus boxed Trifecta bets both involve these three horses plus #8 Journalism. As the favorite at 7:2 as of 6:00 PM ET, that is underlay value to me. His jockey Umberto Rispoli lacks significant Derby experience. The fact that four of his five races have featured just four other horses is a big red flag since there are more horses in this race than he has faced in his entire career. This is a California horse that does not engage in quite as stiff competition — so I am passing at the 7:2 price. But when considering that 11 of the last 13 favorites have finished in the top three, I am not excluding him from my trifecta bet. Take #18, #9, #13, and #8 in a boxed trifecta bet.
Best of luck for us — Frank.
