25* NBA SATURDAY NIGHT ABC-TV SPECIAL FEATURE
- Handicapper
- Hollywood Sports
- League
- NBA
- Competition
- Houston Rockets vs Golden State Warriors
- Release Date
- 04/26/2025 06:03 PM
- Event Date
- 04/26/2025 08:40 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Houston Rockets +3.5 (-110)
(BetOnline)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- At 8:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Houston Rockets (567) plus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (568) in Game Three of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Houston (53-31) snapped a four-game losing streak with their 109-94 victory as a 4-point favorite at home against the Warriors on Wednesday. Golden State (50-35) had won two games in a row before that loss.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ROCKETS PLUS THE POINTS: Houston got the proverbial money off their back by winning their first playoff game in the Jalen Green era. I expect them to play loose and with confidence tonight. After struggling in Game One, Green was sensational in Game Two by scoring 38 points from 13 of 25 shooting including an 8 of 18 clip from behind the arc. Head coach Ime Udoka has his team playing physical basketball which should translate well into the postseason. The Rockets rank fifth in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They also lead the league by pulling down 36.3% of their missed shots. They outrebound their opponents by +7.0 Rebounds-Per-Game — and the Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games at home against teams who outrebound their opponents by +3.0 or more RPG. Golden State lacks size and does not have an effective counter to Houston’s big man Alperin Sengun. This young Rockets team will enter into this game rested and ready — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 39 games when playing for the second time in five days. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And while they had played three straight games at home before tonight, Houston has then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games after playing three or more games in a row at home. Additionally, while the books expect an old-fashioned NBA rock fight tonight with the Total set in the 203 range, that fits Udoka’s coaching style quite well when considering his teams have covered the point spread in 13 of the 21 games in his head coaching career when the Total was set from 200 to 209.5. Golden State’s Jimmy Butler is a game-time decision tonight after he suffered a pelvis injury during Wednesday’s game. He is officially listed as questionable — and we have to assume that Butler plays given his toughness. If he can’t take the court, then swell. But even if he plays tonight, he will likely not be close to 100%. As it is, the Warriors have scored only 94 and 95 points in the first two games of this series. This team lacked a reliable second scorer to help Stephen Curry which is why the organization traded for (and agreed to pay) Butler. Golden State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games after playing a game where they did not score more than 100 points. The Warriors are usually overvalued by the betting public when playing at home as the favorite as well — they have failed to cover the point spread in 42 of their last 63 games at home when playing the points including 20 of those 31 games this season. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home.
FINAL TAKE: Golden State has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 home games when attempting to avenge a loss on the road. 25* NBA Saturday Night ABC-TV Game of the Month is with the Houston Rockets (567) plus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (568). Best of luck for us — Frank.
