25* CBB FIRST FOUR NCAA TOURNEY TOTAL OF YEAR
- Handicapper
- Hollywood Sports
- League
- NCAAB
- Competition
- North Carolina vs San Diego State
- Release Date
- 03/18/2025 06:25 PM
- Event Date
- 03/18/2025 09:20 PM
- Bet Type
- Over / Under
- Pick
-
North Carolina vs San Diego State Over 142 (-110)
(BetOnline)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- At 9:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the North Carolina Tar Heels (671) and the San Diego State Aztecs (672) in the First Four of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: North Carolina (22-13) saw their two-game losing streak snapped in a 74-71 loss against Duke in the Semifinals of the ACC Tournament as a 7-point underdog on Friday. San Diego State (21-9) has lost two of their last three games after their 62-52 loss to Boise State as a 1.5-point underdog in the Quarterfinals of the Mountain West Conference Tournament on Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the University of Dayton Arena in Dayton, Ohio.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: San Diego State is a very good defensive team — but this game should go Over the Total for two primary reasons: North Carolina plays at a very fast pace and they can’t play defense. The Tar Heels average 70.4 adjusted possessions per game while averaging 16.3 seconds per possession — those marks rank 34th and 40th in the nation. And they are an elite offensive team that is playing its best basketball on that end of the court right now. They score 80.8 Points-Per-Game and rank 22nd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they rise to 12th in the metric in their last ten games. In their last nine regular season games, they ranked ninth in the nation in effective field goal percentage — they made 42.6% of their shots from behind the arc and 55.3% of their shots inside the arc. But in the last month of the regular season, North Carolina ranked 262nd in opponent effective field goal percentage with those foes making 39.3% of their shots from behind the arc which ranks 338th in the nation. They also play the 20th-worst defense in terms of Points-Per-Possession against the ball handler coming off screens in the pick-and-roll. The Tar Heels rank 70th in the nation on the road in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they surrender +1.8 more adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing away from home. The Aztecs do hold their opponents to 37.8% shooting — but North Carolina has played 7 of their last 11 road games Over the Total against teams who do not allow their opponents to make more than 42% of their shots. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. Additionally, they have played 26 of their last 36 games Over the Total against teams outside the ACC including 18 of those 22 games played on the road — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games this season against non-conference opponents Over the Total including six of those seven games played on the road. San Diego State mostly played teams in the Mountain West Conference that played at slow paces — only Fresno State and New Mexico averaged 69.2 or more possessions per game. In those four games, the Aztecs scored 75.5. PPG. They only made 38.3% of their shots in their loss to the Broncos which was the worst shooting effort in their last nine contests. San Diego State has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss including four of those five games played on the road. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after losing to fellow Mountain West Conference opponents including all three of those games played on the road. They have also played 9 of their last 13 road games Over the Total when playing for the second time in eight days. This Aztecs’ team is not as good defensively as some of head coach Brian Dutcher’s recent squads. They rank 290th in putting their opponents on the free throw line — and I like Overs in games when a team will score their share of points when the clock is stopped. And while the national average for 3-point shot attempts per field goal attempt is 39.0%, they rank 354th in the nation with their opponents launching 47.3% of their shots from behind the arc. San Diego State’s strong interior defense may compel the Tar Heels to rely on their good outside shooting. The Aztecs also rank 347th when playing on the road by allowing their opponents to pull down 35.6% of their missed shots. They are surrendering +3.3 more adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing on the road. But they are also scoring +2.3 more adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing away from home.
FINAL TAKE: Despite their good defenses under Dutcher, San Diego State has played 8 of their last 13 games in tournament play Over the Total. North Carolina has played 16 of their last 24 games on a neutral court Over the Total as a favorite or pick ‘em — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games on a neutral court when favored by up to six points or as a pick ‘em. The Tar Heels have also played 6 of their last 9 games in the Big Dance Over the Total. 25* CBB First Four NCAA Tournament Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the North Carolina Tar Heels (671) and the San Diego State Aztecs (672). Best of luck for us — Frank.
