MLB SUNDAY NIGHT ESPN SPECIAL
- Handicapper
- Hollywood Sports
- League
- MLB
- Competition
- New York Mets vs Seattle Mariners
- Release Date
- 08/11/2024 06:21 PM
- Event Date
- 08/11/2024 07:10 PM
- Bet Type
- Moneyline
- Pick
-
Seattle Mariners -126
(BetOnline)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Seattle Mariners (926) versus the New York Mets (925) listing both starting pitchers Luis Castillo and Luis Severino. THE SITUATION: Seattle (62-56) has won three games in a row after their 4-0 victory at home against the Mets on Saturday. New York (61-56) has lost two games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MARINERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Seattle has won 5 of their last 8 games after winning their last game — and they have won 6 of their last 9 games after scoring four or more runs. They have also won 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last contest. They have a 36-26 record at home — and they have won 30 of their last 50 games at home when favored including five of their last seven. Castillo gets the start tonight looking to build on his 9-11 record along with a 3.48 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in 24 starts. The veteran right-hander has been one of the most consistent pitchers in MLB and he is looking to register his seventh straight Quality Start. Castillo has been most effective at home at T-Mobile Park where he enjoys a 2.95 ERA along with a 1.07 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .236 in 13 starts as opposed to his 4.14 ERA along with a 1.29 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .242 in 11 starts on the road. He faces a slumping Mets lineup that has not scored yet in the first two games of this series. Since July 1st, New York ranks 25th in MLB in both weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers. The Mets have lost 8 of their last 9 games after scoring one run or less in their last game. They have also lost 5 of their last 8 games on the road. They counter with Severino who has a 7-5 record along with a 4.06 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 22 starts this season. The 128 2/3 innings he has logged this season is his biggest workload since 2018 when he pitched 191 1/3 innings. Fatigue may be setting in for the right-hander who has battled injuries over the years. In his last seven starts, he has been saddled with a 5.87 ERA along with a 1.49 WHIP. And while he has a 3.54 ERA in 12 starts at home, that mark rises to a 4.65 ERA in his 10 starts on the road. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.52 and 4.43 moving forward. He faces a Mariners lineup that has improved since acquiring Randy Arozarena and Justin Turner. After languishing near the bottom of the league all season, Seattle ranks 17th and 14th in MLB since July 11th (the last month) in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created. Even better, the team activated Julio Rodriguez from the injured list earlier today so they get their best player back for tonight’s game. He’s batting cleanup.
FINAL TAKE: The Mariners have won 7 of their last 10 games against the Mets — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games against them when playing at home. 10* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Special with the money-line on the Seattle Mariners (926) versus the New York Mets (925) listing both starting pitchers Luis Castillo and Luis Severino. Best of luck for us — Frank.
