by Team Del Genio
Sunday, Mar 29, 2026The Elite Eight is a dangerous round for the number one seeds on the brink of reaching the final four. Higher seeds in the Elite Eight are 41-57-4 against the spread, even after both Arizona and Illinois won and covered the point spreads yesterday in their games in the Elite Eight. Number one seeds in the elite eight are 29-31-4 against the spread after the Wildcats pulled away to beat the Boilermakers. When number one seeds are playing number two seeds in the elite eight, they only have a 28-24 straight-up record. Duke’s advancement to the final four is not a foregone conclusion, despite the oddsmakers installing them as a 5.5-point favorite against the Connecticut Huskies.
UConn appeared to be flying under the radar in their Elite Eight showdown with Duke, despite being the second seed in the East region. Bettors may had grown frustrated with their only covering the point spread in fourteen of their thirty-six games this year. Yet the Huskies are only two years removed from winning back-to-back national championships. UConn has only lost five games this year. Their 67-63 victory against Michigan State on Friday added to their resume another signature win that also includes Illinois (in the final four) and Florida (the defending national champion).
The experience and expertise of head coach Dan Hurley should not be dismissed too quickly. Under his leadership, the Huskies had covered the point spread in thirteen games in a row from the second round of the NCAA tournament through the championship game. UConn had covered the point spread in sixteen of their previous nineteen games in a postseason tournament with Hurley on the sidelines.
The Duke Blue Devils were back to full strength after Caleb Foster returned from his fractured right foot on Friday in their game against St. John’s. Patrick Ngongba had played in the last two games after coming back from his injury in round two of the NCAA tournament in their game against TCU. Head coach Jon Scheyer needed both players in the Blue Devils’ narrow 80-75 victory against St. John’s as a 6.5-point favorite. Duke moves on to the elite eight on a fourteen-game winning streak.
Foster scored 11 points and played 19 minutes in his improbable quick return from an injury that often takes over two months to recover. Yet with only a two-day turnaround, he may struggle to overcome that injury.
If there was a weakness to this team, it is that they are not a great 3-point shooting squad. They ranked 142nd in the country with a 3-point shooting percentage of 34.2%. The Blue Devils have demonstrated some vulnerabilities in spots like this. They had covered the point spread in just three of their eight tournament games this year. They had covered the point spread in three of their previous ten games against opponents with a winning percentage at 80% or higher.
Bettors who became skeptical about UConn had to be feeling very confident when Duke took a 19-point lead in the first half. Yet despite trailing by 15 points at halftime, Hurley proclaimed the way his team could get back in the game was to start making baskets. At one point, they had only made one of their 17 shots from 3-point land. Yet in the middle of the second half, they had cut their deficit to just nine points. If the Huskies had made three more 3-pointers for a 4 of 17 clip from 3-point, the game would have been tied.
Finally, UConn started seeing some 3s land. They converted four of their final six games from the 3-point line, including Braylon Mullins’ heave with under a second left to give the Huskies a 73-72 upset victory.
It was yet another big blown lead for the Blue Devils since Jon Scheyer became their head coach. In the national semifinals last year, Duke had a 59-45 lead against Houston with 8:17 left in the second half before the Cougars outscored them the rest of the way, 25-8, in a 70-67 loss. The Blue Devils' other two losses this season came after they took leads of 13 or more points. Against Texas Tech early in the year, they had a 58-41 lead with 16:30 minutes left in the second half before losing that game by one point, 82-81. Then against North Carolina, they opened the game on an 18-5 run before eventually losing to their arch rivals, 71-68.
Foster struggled to contribute 48 hours after his initial return from his fractured foot. He played 14 minutes off the bench, yet did not score. Despite UConn’s struggles to make 3s, Duke’s five made 3-pointers were only one more than what the Huskies made by the end of the game. The Blue Devils' lack of productivity from 3-point range, along with three fewer offensive rebounds and an -8 net turnover margin, explains how they lost this game (and Team Del Genio won our NCAA-B Elite Eight Game of the Year).
Now, number one seeds playing number two seeds in the Elite Eight only have a 28-25 straight-up record heading into 2027.
Good luck - TDG.
UConn appeared to be flying under the radar in their Elite Eight showdown with Duke, despite being the second seed in the East region. Bettors may had grown frustrated with their only covering the point spread in fourteen of their thirty-six games this year. Yet the Huskies are only two years removed from winning back-to-back national championships. UConn has only lost five games this year. Their 67-63 victory against Michigan State on Friday added to their resume another signature win that also includes Illinois (in the final four) and Florida (the defending national champion).
The experience and expertise of head coach Dan Hurley should not be dismissed too quickly. Under his leadership, the Huskies had covered the point spread in thirteen games in a row from the second round of the NCAA tournament through the championship game. UConn had covered the point spread in sixteen of their previous nineteen games in a postseason tournament with Hurley on the sidelines.
The Duke Blue Devils were back to full strength after Caleb Foster returned from his fractured right foot on Friday in their game against St. John’s. Patrick Ngongba had played in the last two games after coming back from his injury in round two of the NCAA tournament in their game against TCU. Head coach Jon Scheyer needed both players in the Blue Devils’ narrow 80-75 victory against St. John’s as a 6.5-point favorite. Duke moves on to the elite eight on a fourteen-game winning streak.
Foster scored 11 points and played 19 minutes in his improbable quick return from an injury that often takes over two months to recover. Yet with only a two-day turnaround, he may struggle to overcome that injury.
If there was a weakness to this team, it is that they are not a great 3-point shooting squad. They ranked 142nd in the country with a 3-point shooting percentage of 34.2%. The Blue Devils have demonstrated some vulnerabilities in spots like this. They had covered the point spread in just three of their eight tournament games this year. They had covered the point spread in three of their previous ten games against opponents with a winning percentage at 80% or higher.
Bettors who became skeptical about UConn had to be feeling very confident when Duke took a 19-point lead in the first half. Yet despite trailing by 15 points at halftime, Hurley proclaimed the way his team could get back in the game was to start making baskets. At one point, they had only made one of their 17 shots from 3-point land. Yet in the middle of the second half, they had cut their deficit to just nine points. If the Huskies had made three more 3-pointers for a 4 of 17 clip from 3-point, the game would have been tied.
Finally, UConn started seeing some 3s land. They converted four of their final six games from the 3-point line, including Braylon Mullins’ heave with under a second left to give the Huskies a 73-72 upset victory.
It was yet another big blown lead for the Blue Devils since Jon Scheyer became their head coach. In the national semifinals last year, Duke had a 59-45 lead against Houston with 8:17 left in the second half before the Cougars outscored them the rest of the way, 25-8, in a 70-67 loss. The Blue Devils' other two losses this season came after they took leads of 13 or more points. Against Texas Tech early in the year, they had a 58-41 lead with 16:30 minutes left in the second half before losing that game by one point, 82-81. Then against North Carolina, they opened the game on an 18-5 run before eventually losing to their arch rivals, 71-68.
Foster struggled to contribute 48 hours after his initial return from his fractured foot. He played 14 minutes off the bench, yet did not score. Despite UConn’s struggles to make 3s, Duke’s five made 3-pointers were only one more than what the Huskies made by the end of the game. The Blue Devils' lack of productivity from 3-point range, along with three fewer offensive rebounds and an -8 net turnover margin, explains how they lost this game (and Team Del Genio won our NCAA-B Elite Eight Game of the Year).
Now, number one seeds playing number two seeds in the Elite Eight only have a 28-25 straight-up record heading into 2027.
Good luck - TDG.
