by Chuck Sommers
Tuesday, Dec 21, 2021
Time: 7 p.m. ET
Venue: Finneran Pavillion, Villanova, PA
Where to watch: FS1
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Villanova -5.5
BetMGM: Villanova -5.5
Caesars: Villanova -5.5
Season record
No. 18 Xavier: 11-1 (1-0 Big East)
No. 23 Villanova: 7-4 (0-1 Big East)
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Xavier - Villanova preview and analysis
Recent form
Xavier: won 80-71 vs. Marquette on Saturday
Villanova: lost 79-59 at Creighton on Friday
The Villanova Wildcats are back home, but they're in big trouble.
Somehow still ranked in the top 25, Villanova is bound to find its way out of it with one more loss this week, and that's highly likely with the No. 18 Xavier Musketeers coming to town on Tuesday.
Villanova is in a really bad spot. It's not season-shattering, because that's what the Big East tournament is for, but the 'Cats have gone from winning four straight to dropping two straight on the road; and not just by a couple of points. Villanova got decimated by the No. 1 Baylor Bears on Dec. 12 in Waco, and then by 20 at the Creighton Bluejays in a decent upset.
Creighton was 7.5-point dogs on Saturday.
Take all of that of what you know at this point and now ask how is Villanova 5-point favorites against an 11-1 Xavier team? The Wildcats are coming off a night where they shots 33. 3 percent in the loss to Creighton, one game after putting up only 36 points against the defending national champions.
Collin Gillespie had a team-high 16 points and Eric Dixon had 15, but three of the five starters played at least 35 minutes and Villanova got no contribution from its bench; five players played eight minutes or less.
"We're struggling," Villanova coach Jay Wright said. "Every guy individually is trying to get us going and we're kind of losing our rhythm offensively. We have to learn from this and we're going to have to get back."
Despite all of that, Nova is favored against a team that's won seven straight that includes wins over Cincinnati and Oklahoma State. Xavier comes into this game off an 80-71 win over the Marquette Golden Eagles in their Big East opener.
Dwon Odom scored a career-high 19 points and was named the league's player of the week for his performance in that win. Seven different players have led Xavier in scoring this season, led by Nate Johnson, Jack Nunge and Colby Jones.
Johnson had 17 points with four made 3-pointers, and Odom missed only one shot (8 of 9) in 21 minutes off the bench.
"We're 1-0. Got our first Big East win. We're a little banged up," said Xavier head coach Travis Steele. "But you have to be mentally tough at this time of year."
Prediction
I can't trust Villanova right now. A lot of talent, but not a bunch of depth. That's the difference with Xavier. There's a long way to go for the rest of the season to unfold, but give me Xavier with the upset. Xavier by 5
Betting trends
Xavier is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 after a stretch of covering four of five of the last spread.
Villanova is 30-26 ATS in its last 56 as a favorite.
Villanova is 23-3 straight up as a home favorite over the past three seasons.
Projected starting lineup
Xavier:
PG: Nate Johnson
SG: Paul Scruggs
SF: Colby Jones
PF: Jerome Hunter
C: Dieonte Miles
SF: Colby Jones
PF: Jerome Hunter
C: Dieonte Miles
Villanova:
PG: Collin Gillespie
SG: Justin Moore
SF: Brandon Slater
PF: Jermaine Samuels
C: Eric Dixon
SF: Brandon Slater
PF: Jermaine Samuels
C: Eric Dixon
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
