World Series Game 5: Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies Game Prediction, Odds and Preview - 11/03/2022

by James Q

World Series Game 5: Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies Game Prediction, Odds and Preview - 11/03/2022

Game Time: 8:03 pm ET, Thursday, November 3rd, 2022
Venue: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Where to Watch:  FOX

Opening MLB Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Moneyline:   Astros -155, Phillies +135; O/U 7.5
PointsBet:  Moneyline:    Astros -160, Phillies +135; O/U 7.5
Caesars: Moneyline:   Astros -160, Phillies +135; O/U 7.5

Season Record

Astros: 106-56, 1st AL West, 2-2 World Series
Phillies: 87-75, 3rd place NL East, 2-2 World Series

The 2022 World Series between the Houston Astros and Philadelphia Phillies has been an absolute seesaw.  The Phillies won, the Astros won, the Phillies won, the Astros won… Back and forth, back and forth.  There is no question that the Astros have clamped down on the Phillies batters in their two wins… There is no question that the Phillies batters have gone hog wild in their two wins.  So the question going forward is will the Phillies batters get off?  Is the great betting opportunity found in expectations?... At the moment everyone seems to expect this series to keep going back and forth until a dramatic Game 7.  The Astros have scored 16 runs over four games for 2 wins and 2 losses.  The Phillies have scored 15 runs in two wins and two losses.  Does that mean that this will all come down to pitching?... With Verlander on the mound for the Astros in Game 5… Verlander is 0-6 in World Series games.

The Houston Astros handled their business in game 4 to tie the series going into the last game in Philadelphia’s Citizens Bank Park.  They are assured to get back home with the series still alive. In Game 4 25 year old right handed pitcher Cristian Javier lead the charge with 6 no hit inning of spectacular play.  He was followed by Bryan Abreu, Rafael Montero, and Ryan Pressly… who all combined for a no-hitter.  It is just the second no-hitter in World Series history… Not quite Don Larsen’s perfect game… but still a great feat. Javier had 9 strikeouts and his relief added 5 more.  The Astros were not clobbering anything either… until the fifth when they rolled off 5 runs to get 4 more runs than they needed.  Neither team scored again all night.  The worry the Astros should have about Game 5 is whether Justin’s continued winless streak in World Series games is in his head or a circumstantial stat?

The Philadelphia Phillies are a true feast or famine story.  When they start hitting they tend to binge for real hits, real homers, real cluster of RBI’s… The Phillies two wins both came from an offense that scored 6 runs in Game 1 and 7 runs in Game 3.  Their two losses came from a dry 1 run in Game 2 and 0 runs in Game 4.  It’s kill or be killed in the Phillies line-up right now.  The only offense the Phillies saw in Game 4 was 1 walk to Kyle Schwarber, 1 walk to Bryce Harper, and 1 walk to Brandon Marsh… everyone was 0-4, 0-3, or 0-2 at the plate.  Starting pitcher Aaron Nola handled himself well through 4 innings, but that disastrous 5th inning came around and Aaron gave out 7 hits with 3 earned runs.Jose Alvarado was brought in to steady the ship and HE gave up 2 hits for 2 Earned runs… The next four Phillies pitchers would go the rest of the game without giving up a hit… but the damage was done.  In Game 5 the Phillies will start with Noah Syndergaard… who has wonderfully pitched 5.1 innings in this postseason so far.  He will need to give the Phillies a strong start… desperately.



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Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies Review and Analysis

Recent Form  

HOU: 113-56, +2538 ML, 63-98-8 O/U, 59-26 at home.
PHI: 96-77, +899 ML, 87-79-7 O/U, 44-43 on the road.

Offensive Analysis

The Astros finished the season 8th in scoring with 4.55 per game, 12th in batting average with .248, and 7th in OBP with .319.

The Phillies finished the season 7th in scoring with 4.61 per game, 8th in batting average with .253, and 11th in OBP with .317

Defensive Analysis

The Astros pitchers finished the season 2nd in the league in ERA with 2.90, 2nd in WHIP with 1.09, and their fielders finished 6th best in errors with 72 on the season.

The Phillies pitchers finished the season 18th in ERA with 3.97, 14th in WHIP with 1.26, and the fielder’s finished 3rd best in errors with only 69 on the season.


Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction


Our prediction for Thursday, November 3rd is…  Phillies 7 - Astros 4

The Phillies have hit well the day after every bad hitting game.  They have just one last chance in front of their raucous home crowd.  They also have shown that they can hit against Verlander.

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MLB Betting Trends

Houston is 43-17 this season when the money line is -100 to -150.
Houston is 58-22 after allowing 2 runs or less this season.
Philly is 10-3 in these playoffs (+8.8 UNITS).
Philly is 44-24 (+18.8 UNITS) after a game where the bullpen gave up no earned runs this season.


Players to Watch 

Astros: RHP Justin Verlander, 1-0, 7.20 ERA, 19 strikeouts in 15 innings pitched.  1.53 WHIP.  Justin is going to the Hall of Fame one day.  He is currently winless in 6 World Series starts.  He surely needs this game.

Phillies: RHP Noah Syndergaard, 0-0, 1.69 ERA, 4 strikeouts in 5 innings pitched.  0.75 WHIP.  Noah has been really good this postseason in just 5 innings.  he is a big arm and a famous name.  The 30 year old can write his legacy right here.

Starting Lineups

Astros: 2B Jose Altuve, SS Jeremy Pena, LF Jordan Alvarez, 3B Alex Bregman, 1B Yuli Gurriel, DH Trey Mancini, CF Chas McCormack, C Martin Maldonado

Phillies: Castellanos, 3B Alex Bohm, SS Bryson Stott, Phillies: LF Kyle Schwarber, 1B Rhys Hoskins, C JT Realmuto, DH Bryce Harper, RF Nick 2B Jean Segura, CF Brandon Marsh

Manager

Astros: Dusty “They aren’t cheating as a far as I know” Baker
Phillies: Rob “how bout them ears” Thompson

Weather Forecast 

Suny, 68* the day will recede into a downright chilly evening.  Humidity 45%, WIND 7 MPH.
     



James Q

About the Author:

James Q. has been involved with sports and gambling his entire life. A former division 1 scholarship basketball player, James understands sports (and especially basketball) inside-and-out. Following his basketball playing days, James parlayed his gambling skills into a semi-pro poker career. James resides in Los Angeles, and especially loves the Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Rams, and Los Angeles Dodgers. And when he isn't betting on sports (and writing about it), James can be found performing stand-up comedy on the Sunset Strip.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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