World Series Game 4: Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies Game Prediction, Odds and Preview - 11/02/2022

by James Q

World Series Game 4: Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies Game Prediction, Odds and Preview - 11/02/2022

Game Time: 8:03 pm ET, Wednesday, November 2nd, 2022
Venue: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Where to Watch:  FOX
Opening MLB Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Moneyline:   Astros -105, Phillies -115; O/U 7.5
PointsBet:  Moneyline:   Astros +100, Phillies -115; O/U 7.5 
Caesars: Moneyline:   Astros -105, Phillies -115; O/U 7.5

Season Record

Astros: 106-56, 1st AL West, 1-2 World Series
Phillies: 87-75, 3rd place NL East, 2-1 World Series

***  Remember because of the rain cancellation of Game 3 on Monday night which got played last night… you may see TV listings of either the wrong date or the wrong Game number.  This review is for Game 4 of the 2022 World Series…. It will be played (barring weather) on Wednesday Night, November 2nd***

Game 4 of the World Series should be the most fun one of the bunch!  We have already had some fun surprises… like the Phillies bullpen pitching out of their minds.  Or maybe the Astros lineup suddenly went cold in Game 3… Or maybe just the sheer volume of the fans in Citizens Bank Park?  Lots of fun stuff.  The outcome of Game 4 will make or break the series for both teams.  If the Phillies get another game at home?... They will be up to the magical number of 3-1… Only 5 teams in World Series history have ever come back from a 3-1 deficit.  It is not quite as rare as Haley's Comet but close…. On the other hand if the Astros get Game 4… we are again tied with 2 of the remaining 3 games to be played in Houston!  This is the game each team is drooling to get!  This is the game where you will see bunts to move the base runners, the game where you will see relievers any time the guy on the mound struggles just a bit,  this is the game where both teams will double down on first pitches.  Everyone will be tight.  As always the Philly fans will be raucous at seemingly every bit of action… until the end be it bitter or savory.

The Houston Astros got blanked in Game 4.  They put up a big goose-egg in a 7-0 loss on the road.  Of course their spirits may have been broken when Starting pitcher right-hander Lance McCullers Jr became the first pitcher in World Series history to give up 5 home runs!!  FIVE Home Runs!  McCullers was yanked after 4 ⅓ innings with the score at 7-0… Neither team would score again the rest of the game.  No tension… no pressure… just an out and out loss. The Asztros find themselves in that critical time of any postseason series where they have to simply forget the beating and start over fresh.  They had a really cold batter’s box getting just 5 hits and 0 runs.  The hero of 3 hits in Game 2 Jose Altuve went 0-4, Mr reliable Yordan Alvarez also went 0-4.  It did not matter that the Astros bullpen of Ryne Stanek and Jose Urquidy held the Phillies to 1 hit and zero runs over the last 5 innings of play… it was frankly a waste of their arms.

The Philadelphia Phillies opened the game first in line for a private offensive buffet.  Bryce Harper hit a 2-run home run… Alec Bohm and Brandon Marsh each landed solo shots over the outfield wall… The Philly lead would be 4-0 after 2 innings.  This not only dinged the Astros pitcher into the history books… It also made the Phillies the first team to ever hit 3 home runs in the first two innings of a World Series game…. Later in the 4th inning Kyle Schwarber and Rhys Hoskins landed back to back home runs to lift the lead to 7-0.  The Phillies may be feeling a case of swollen hands this morning given the sheer number of high fives required last night.  Could this sort of thing ever happen again?.  The Phillies line-up is loaded with big shot hitters… Bryce Harper may have been reborn as baseball’s most famous name (no offense ot Aaron Judge or Shohei Ohtani)... his time in baseball since he was a teenage phenom has been waiting for postseason glory and he has a bunch of those moments now.

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Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies Review and Analysis

Recent Form  

HOU: 113-56, +2538 ML, 63-98-8 O/U, 59-26 at home.
PHI: 96-77, +899 ML, 87-79-7 O/U, 44-43 on the road.

Offensive Analysis

The Astros finished the season 8th in scoring with 4.55 per game, 12th in batting average with .248, and 7th in OBP with .319.

The Phillies finished the season 7th in scoring with 4.61 per game, 8th in batting average with .253, and 11th in OBP with .317

Defensive Analysis

The Astros pitchers finished the season 2nd in the league in ERA with 2.90, 2nd in WHIP with 1.09, and their fielders finished 6th best in errors with 72 on the season.

The Phillies pitchers finished the season 18th in ERA with 3.97, 14th in WHIP with 1.26, and the fielder’s finished 3rd best in errors with only 69 on the season.

Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Our prediction for Wednesday, November 2nd is…  Phillies 6  - Astros 3

Bet on the Phillies.  Yes, the Astros shelled Aaron Nola the last time they saw him.  Yes, the Astros are a tough as nails team.  However… It does not seem like anything will slow down this runaway offensive train the Phillies are on on their home field in front of their home crowd.  

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MLB Betting Trends

Houston is 43-17 this season when the money line is -100 to -150.
Houston is 58-22 after allowing 2 runs or less this season.
Philly is 10-3 in these playoffs (+8.8 UNITS).
Philly is 44-24 (+18.8 UNITS) after a game where the bullpen gave up no earned runs this season.

Players to Watch 

Astros: RHP, Christian Javier, 1-0, 1.35 ERA, 7 strikeouts in 6 innings pitched.  0.75 WHIP. Christian is a strong pitcher with good career numbers and good postseason numbers… BUT he is 25 and has very little experience since his July 2020 debut!  This may be too big of a moment for a kid to be piloting the ship.  Good numbers or not?... He only has 26 postseason innings total under his belt… for a team that is always in the postseason.

Phillies: RHP Aaron Nola, 2-1, 4.57 ERA, 23 strikeouts in 21 innings pitched, 1.25 WHIP.  Nola has been a rock for the Phillies all season and through a couple postseason starts… Then he got hammered in Game 1 of this very series! In game 1 he gave up 6 hits (2 homers) and 5 runs before getting yanked.  It took a herculean offensive effort for the Phillies to dig out the win.

Starting Lineups

Astros: 2B Jose Altuve, SS Jeremy Pena, LF Jordan Alvarez, 3B Alex Bregman, 1B Yuli Gurriel, DH Trey Mancini, CF Chas McCormack, C Martin Maldonado

Phillies: Castellanos, 3B Alex Bohm, SS Bryson Stott, Phillies: LF Kyle Schwarber, 1B Rhys Hoskins, C JT Realmuto, DH Bryce Harper, RF Nick 2B Jean Segura, CF Brandon Marsh


Astros: Dusty “They aren’t cheating as a far as I know” Baker
Phillies: Rob “how bout them ears” Thompson

Weather Forecast 

Suny, 70* day will recede into a mildly cool evening.  Humidity 41%, WIND 7 MPH.

James Q

About the Author:

James Q. has been involved with sports and gambling his entire life. A former division 1 scholarship basketball player, James understands sports (and especially basketball) inside-and-out. Following his basketball playing days, James parlayed his gambling skills into a semi-pro poker career. James resides in Los Angeles, and especially loves the Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Rams, and Los Angeles Dodgers. And when he isn't betting on sports (and writing about it), James can be found performing stand-up comedy on the Sunset Strip.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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