World Series Game 3: Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies Game Prediction, Odds and Preview - 10/31/2022

by James Q

World Series Game 3: Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies Game Prediction, Odds and Preview - 10/31/2022

Game Time: 8:03 pm ET, Monday, October 31st, 2022
Venue: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Where to Watch:  FOX
Opening MLB Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Moneyline:   Astros -125, Phillies +105; O/U 8
PointsBet:  Moneyline:    Astros -125, Phillies +110; O/U 8
Caesars: Moneyline:   Astros -125, Phillies +105; O/U 8

Season Record

Astros: 106-56, 1st AL West, 1-1 World Series
Phillies: 87-75, 3rd place NL East, 1-1 World Series

The 2022 World Series is tied 1-1.  The Houston Astros dropped Game 1 in their home stadium, but came through in Game 2…  The nightmare begins for Houston as they now have to go to Philly for 3 games in a row!  Citizens Bank Park has been the loudest block party in history. The fans are going nuts… the fans are having fun… the Phillies are hitting great at home.  The Astros should not be too worried as the numbers say that the Phillies starting pitching won’t be as strong as it has been during the first two… but the Philloies shouldn’t be worried because their bullpen has had some really nice innings against the Astros line-up… several scoreless innings in a row over the last two games.  It has been the Phillies starters that have given up most of all those runs.  

In Game 2 the Houston Astros got out to an early lead in the first inning with three consecutive doubles in the first 3 at bats.  The Houston lineup took advantage of Philly’s Zach Wheeler for a quick 2-0 lead.  The game was essentially won there as the Astros finished with a 5-1 win.  2B Jose Altuve nabbed 3 hits throughout the game and turned once again into the star of the night for the Astros.  But the story of the game was Astros starting pitcher Framber Valdez who went 6 ⅓ scoreless innings while only allowing 4 hits and 1 run while striking out 9.  Framber had a great showing… and most importantly built the Astros dugout a pressure free game to finish.  Game 3 will not be a pressure free environment… The Phillies fans will let every Astro hear it all night long.  This team has to keep reminding themselves that they have the better pitching numbers by far… and they have to trust that.

The Philadelphia Phillies are a feast or famine postseason team this year.  When they start hitting the go on a buffet of runs!  When they aren’t hitting… well you know.  The Phillies got the Biggest National League World Series comeback since 1956 in Game 1… they failed to get any real runs in Game 2… The trick for the Phillies going forward is figuring out how not to go down by sooooo many (or any) runs early!  It is paramount.  They simply have to start pitching around the big hitters early in the game… They have to use all the tricks in the trade to get strikeouts and grounders… because we have already seen that when a Phillies pitcher hangs a meatball… it’s getting smashed.  Comebacks are great… but totally unnecessary if you simply don’t give up soooo many runs.  Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, and Rhys Hoskins will need hits at home.  They have all performed slightly better at home, but it is time to attack the strike zone early and often.  All three spent their time in Houston letting first pitch strikes put them behind the count.

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Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies Review and Analysis

Recent Form  

HOU: 113-56, +2538 ML, 63-98-8 O/U, 59-26 at home.
PHI: 96-77, +899 ML, 87-79-7 O/U, 44-43 on the road.

Offensive Analysis

The Astros finished the season 8th in scoring with 4.55 per game, 12th in batting average with .248, and 7th in OBP with .319.

The Phillies finished the season 7th in scoring with 4.61 per game, 8th in batting average with .253, and 11th in OBP with .317

Defensive Analysis

The Astros pitchers finished the season 2nd in the league in ERA with 2.90, 2nd in WHIP with 1.09, and their fielders finished 6th best in errors with 72 on the season.

The Phillies pitchers finished the season 18th in ERA with 3.97, 14th in WHIP with 1.26, and the fielder’s finished 3rd best in errors with only 69 on the season.


Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction


Our prediction for Monday, October 31st is… Phillies 6 - Astros 4

At home.. In the loudest most raucous stadium going… on Halloween night!  The Phillies will get this game and will be in full celebration mode all night.

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MLB Betting Trends

Houston is 43-17 this season when the money line is -100 to -150.
Houston is 58-22 after allowing 2 runs or lease this season.
Philly is 10-3 in these playoffs (+8.8 UNITS).
Philly is 44-24 (+18.8 UNITS) after a game where the bullpen gave up no earned runs this season.

Players to Watch 

Astros: RHP, Lance McCullers Jr, 0-0, 2.45 ERA, 13 strikeouts in 11 innings pitched.  1.18 WHIP.  Lance has good regular season numbers in a small starting sample size.  At 29 years old a World Series start is a make or break career moment…. He will need to steady his nerves and do what he can do.

Phillies: RHP Noah Syndergaard, 1.69 ERA, 4 strikeouts in 5.1 innings pitched.  0.75 WHIP.  A World Series win would complete a redemption story for Noah.  The man was a hot item until an injury and is now trying to prove he can be a hot item again.  He has pitched well in postseason relief.

Starting Lineups

Astros: 2B Jose Altuve, SS Jeremy Pena, LF Jordan Alvarez, 3B Alex Bregman, 1B Yuli Gurriel, DH Trey Mancini, CF Chas McCormack, C Martin Maldonado

Phillies: Castellanos, 3B Alex Bohm, SS Bryson Stott, Phillies: LF Kyle Schwarber, 1B Rhys Hoskins, C JT Realmuto, DH Bryce Harper, RF Nick 2B Jean Segura, CF Brandon Marsh

Manager

Astros: Dusty “They aren’t cheating as a far as I know” Baker
Phillies: Rob “how bout them ears” Thompson

Weather Forecast 

Mostly Cloudy, 68* for the day’s high.  Humidity 67% with a chance for light rain.  Wind 6 mph.
     



James Q

About the Author:

James Q. has been involved with sports and gambling his entire life. A former division 1 scholarship basketball player, James understands sports (and especially basketball) inside-and-out. Following his basketball playing days, James parlayed his gambling skills into a semi-pro poker career. James resides in Los Angeles, and especially loves the Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Rams, and Los Angeles Dodgers. And when he isn't betting on sports (and writing about it), James can be found performing stand-up comedy on the Sunset Strip.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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