World Series Game 1 Philadelphia Phillies vs Houston Astros Game Prediction, Odds and Preview - 10/28/2022

by James Q

World Series Game 1 Philadelphia Phillies vs Houston Astros Game Prediction, Odds and Preview - 10/28/2022

Game Time: 8:03 pm ET, Friday, October 28th, 2022
Venue: Minute Maid Park, Houston, Texas
Where to Watch:  FOX

Opening MLB Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings: Moneyline:   Phillies +140, Astros -165; O/U 6.5
PointsBet:  Moneyline:   Phillies +145, Astros -175; O/U 6.5
Caesars: Moneyline:  Phillies +143, Astros -170; O/U 6.5
 

Season Record

Phillies: 87-75, 3rd place NL East, 0-0 World Series
Astros: 106-56, 1st AL West, 0-0 World Series

The 2022 World Series is here!  It is full of intrigue.  The Philadelphia Phillies were third place in their own division and they have cut a path through the National League playoffs with big hits and great feelings to land in the World Series.  The Houston Astros are the first major league baseball club to win 100+ games 4 seasons in a row… and they cut themselves a path through the American League playoffs to land in the World Series.  There are fewer great feelings about Houston.  Houston’s last World Series win came with a cheating scandal… a terrible one that was bungled by the MLB commissioner who let the players walk and hardly punished the team at all.  The world of sports HATES the Astros!  They are cheaters.  And even though they aren’t cheating now (as of press time)... Almost no one outside of Houston is rooting for them… even though the team itself has turned over 80% of the players from that cheating championship team… They are not clean in most eyes.  The Astros also will be heavily favored.  Let’s check the numbers, put our feelings aside, and make some smart bets.

The Philadelphia Phillies have been having a long, surprisingly extended block party!  The sudden winning and offensive output in these playoffs have caused raucous crowds to jam the home stadium… and spill over into the surrounding bars.  Hands are still sore from all the high-fives that erupted with each hit against the Padres in the NLCS.  Philly fan Miles Teller is often shown on the telecast having the time of his life.  Football players are showing up to chug beers… and the second hand north eastern city… a sports little brother to New York, Boston, and Chicago… has felt the sun shine on their faces brighter than most years.  If Philly wins the series the party is one you don’t want to miss.  Philly has so far beaten the St Louis Cardinals, the Atlanta Braves, and the San Diego Padres to get here.  Going 8 of ten to get to this current summit.  The Phillies have three top guys on the mound… Aaron Nola, Zach Wheeler, Ranger Suarez… after that they have to get creative with guys like Noah Syndergaard and unfortunately Bailey Falter (who gave up 4 runs before being yanked in the first inning against the Padres).  The pitching gets run support from some of the best hitters in baseball…. LF Kyle Scwharber (49 home runs this season), DH Bryce Harper (2 time MVP), 1B Rhys Hoskins (clutch hits and homers), C JT Realmuto (clutch hits and homers).  These guys can score runs and have been all postseason so far.

The Houston Astros got the first round bye and then ran through the Seattle Mariners and the New York Yankees to get here.  They have had much more rest, netting 7 wins in 7 games. A double sweep and doing it quietly.  The Astros are stacked.  The pitching rotation of Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez, and Lance McCullers Jr have not been pushed too hard.  At the plate the Astros stack the box with LF Yordan Alvarez, 2B Jose Altuve, 3B Alex Bregman… and top to bottom everyone has a decent swing.  DH Trey Mancini usually does not bat until 7th in their lineup.  You have really good hitters when the DH spot lands outside of the top 5 of the order.  The Astros are being watched closely by fans and cameras… to see if maybe they have found a new way to bang on a garbage can… over and over the officials have found nothing.  The Astros bullpen is key as it is rated several spots above the Phillies bullpen. Outfielder Michael Btantley landed on the Out For Season list back in August but he has not been sorely missed in the overall production.

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Philadelphia Phillies vs Houston Astros Review and Analysis

Recent Form  

PHI: 96-77, +899 ML, 87-79-7 O/U, 44-43 on the road.
HOU: 113-56, +2538 ML, 63-98-8 O/U, 59-26 at home.

Offensive Analysis

The Phillies finished the season 7th in scoring with 4.61 per game, 8th in batting average with .253, and 11th in OBP with .317

The Astros finished the season 8th in scoring with 4.55 per game, 12th in batting average with .248, and 7th in OBP with .319.

Defensive Analysis

The Phillies pitchers finished the season 18th in ERA with 3.97, 14th in WHIP with 1.26, and the fielder’s finished 3rd best in errors with only 69 on the season.

The Astros pitchers finished the season 2nd in the league in ERA with 2.90, 2nd in WHIP with 1.09, and their fielders finished 6th best in errors with 72 on the season.

Both teams will see an overall improvement in pitching numbers in the postseason with the tightened rotation… but still we have already seen the Phillies give up some big scoring innings to the Padres.  The Phillies will really have to buckle down to stay in these games.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Houston Astros Prediction


Our prediction for Friday, October 28th is…  Astros 5 - Phillies 4

The Astros should be good on the Ml to win Game 1… It’s an obvious choice… but it should be the right one based on rest and home field advantage.  It’s Nola vs Verlander on the mound… Verlander has a postseason advantage.

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MLB Betting Trends

Philly is 31-13 after wins by 2 runs or less.
Philly is 90-108 (-22.3 UNITS) in road games the last 3 seasons.
Houston is 38-13 after a win by 2 runs or less.
Houston is 135-69 (+11.4 UNITS) in home games the last 3 seasons.


Players to Watch 

Phillies: RHP Aaron Nola, 2-1, 3.12 ERA, 18 strikeouts in 17 innings pitched. 1.10 WHIP.  These are postseason numbers and they look really good if you take out the inning he gave up an RBI double to his own brother who plays for the Padres.

Astros: RHP Justin Verlander, 1-0, 6.30 ERA, 14 strikeouts in 10 innings pitched. 1.50 WHIP.  Verlander got yanked early in a postseason game where it was all falling apart… the team righted the ship and got the win… His numbers took a bit hit for it.  He’s still a beast.  His 39 years of age and 2005 debut will give him the experience level needed to go hard and controlled.

Starting Lineups

Phillies: Castellanos, 3B Alex Bohm, SS Bryson Stott, Phillies: LF Kyle Schwarber, 1B Rhys Hoskins, C JT Realmuto, DH Bryce Harper, RF Nick 2B Jean Segura, CF Brandon Marsh

Astros: 2B Jose Altuve, SS Jeremy Pena, LF Jordan Alvarez, 3B Alex Bregman, 1B Yuli Gurriel, DH Trey Mancini, CF Chas McCormack, C Martin Maldonado

Manager

Phillies: Rob “how bout them ears” Thompson
Astros: Dusty “They aren’t cheating as a far as I know” Baker

Weather Forecast 

100% chance of precipitation as Game 1 of the World Series is expecting rain… Thunderstorms in fact.  Wind 15 mph, 71* for the day’s high.  This one may get delays if not outright postponed.
     

 


James Q

About the Author:

James Q. has been involved with sports and gambling his entire life. A former division 1 scholarship basketball player, James understands sports (and especially basketball) inside-and-out. Following his basketball playing days, James parlayed his gambling skills into a semi-pro poker career. James resides in Los Angeles, and especially loves the Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Rams, and Los Angeles Dodgers. And when he isn't betting on sports (and writing about it), James can be found performing stand-up comedy on the Sunset Strip.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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