by Rod Pearson
Wednesday, Sep 25, 2024
Game Time: 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, September 28, 2024
Venue: LA Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, CA
Where to Watch: CBS
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Wisconsin +16, USC -16; Over/Under: 51 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Wisconsin +16, USC -16; Over/Under: 51 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Wisconsin +15.5, USC -15.5; Over/Under: 51 points
Season Record
Wisconsin Badgers: 2-1 (0-0) (14th place, Big Ten)
USC Trojans: 2-1 (0-1) (13th place, Big Ten)
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Recent Form
Wisconsin Badgers: lost their last game at home against the Alabama Crimson Tide 42-10.
USC Trojans: lost their last game on the road against the Michigan Wolverines 27-24.
Wisconsin Badgers vs USC Trojans Preview and Analysis
Wisconsin is entering this game with a 2-1 record overall and they have a 0-0 record in their conference games too. They are 2-1 in their home games, 0-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against Alabama 42-10. Tyler Van Dyke was the starting QB and he completed 5/5 passes for 16 passing yards before leaving injured and getting replaced by Braedyn Locke who completed 13/26 passes for 125 yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. Chez Mellusi led the team in rushing yards with 66. Will Pauling led the receivers with 83 receiving yards on 9 receptions and 1 TD. Leon Lowery and Aaron Witt each led the defense in that game with 4 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while Leon Lowery and Christian Alliegro each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
USC is entering this game with a 2-1 record overall and they have a 0-1 record in their conference games too. They are 1-0 in their home games, 0-1 in their road games, and they are also 1-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against Michigan 27-24. Miller Moss was the starting QB and he completed 28/51 passes for 283 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Jo'quavious Marks led the team in rushing yards with 100. Zachariah Branch led the receivers with 98 receiving yards on 6 receptions. Eric Gentry led the defense in that game with 8 solo tackles and 4 assisted tackles while Eric Gentry and Braylan Shelby each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
Wisconsin vs USC Prediction
The current betting odds have USC listed as a 16 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. USC has looked good in their games this season with their 2-1 record overall, but they are 0-1 in their conference games after losing their first ever game in the Big Ten. They are coming off a loss to Michigan in their last one and even though Michigan isn't the same team that won the National Championship last season, they are still a really tough team to beat at home and USC only lost that game by 3. They also have a solid win at a neutral site against LSU earlier this season. Meanwhile, Wisconsin has looked good in their games this season with their 2-1 record overall, but they are coming off a loss in their last one too. They lost at home against Alabama and it wasn't even close. They also lost their starting QB in that game and he is questionable to play now. This is going to be a really tough game for Wisconsin with it being their first conference game this season, and it is on the road on the other side of the country. USC already got a taste of Big Ten football last week in Michigan and they came close to winning that game. They will be looking to bounce back in their Big Ten home opener and this is a tough position for Wisconsin to be in. The best way to place a bet here is on USC to cover the spread in this game.
Wisconsin USC Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, September 28, 2024 (3:30 pm ET start time) is USC 41 Wisconsin 17.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Wisconsin Badgers: 4-1 ATS off a home loss. 7-1 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game. 5-1 ATS vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game. 4-0 OVER when the total is between 49.5 and 56. 4-1 OVER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%). 6-0 1H OVER after a 2 game home stand.
USC Trojans: 7-13 ATS against conference opponents. 2-8 ATS after playing their last game on the road. 1-5 ATS versus good defensive teams - allowing 310 yards/game or less. 22-8 OVER in all lined games. 18-6 OVER as a favorite. 15-5 OVER against conference opponents.
Key Injuries
Wisconsin Badgers: R. Booker (TE) Questionable - Undisclosed. L. Nelson (OL) Questionable - Undisclosed. T. Heiberger (OLB) Questionable - Undisclosed. T. Van Dyke (QB) Questionable - Leg. B. Nelson (OL) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Griffin (WR) Out - Undisclosed. J. Thompson (DL) Out - Upper Body.
USC Trojans: W. Matthews (TE) Questionable - Undisclosed. M. Cobb (LB) Questionable - Undisclosed.
Notable Quotes
“We'll get a little more clarity hopefully here soon, get an MRI and things like that. I don't think it looks real good for us, for him.” - Luke Fickell on Tyler Van Dyke after his team’s loss against Alabama in their last game.
“I think it was just a classic, back-and-forth fight.” - Lincoln Riley after his team’s loss against Michigan in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Wisconsin Badgers
WR Green, Bryson
WR Anthony II, Vinny
WR Pauling, Will
TE Nowakowski, Riley
QB Van Dyke, Tyler
RB Walker, Tawee
USC Trojans
WR Hudson, Kyron
WR Lane, Ja'Kobi
WR Lemon, Makai
WR Branch, Zachariah
TE McRee, Lake
QB Moss, Miller
RB Marks, Woody
Statistical Leaders
Wisconsin Badgers
Passing: T. Van Dyke (422)
Rushing: C. Mellusi (200)
Receiving: W. Pauling (191)
Touchdowns: C. Mellusi (3)
USC Trojans
Passing: M. Moss (890)
Rushing: W. Marks (271)
Receiving: Z. Branch (173)
Touchdowns: W. Marks (3)
Coaches:
Wisconsin Badgers: Luke Fickell (3rd season)
USC Trojans: Lincoln Riley (3rd season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
