by ASA, Inc.
The Tennessee Titans finished last season with an 11-5 overall record winning the AFC South. However, we feel they might just be a .500 type team in 2021. Despite finishing with 11 wins in the regular season, the Titans point differential was just +52 which ranked them 7th in the AFC and 12th in the NFL. Over half of their wins last year (6) were by 3 points or less or in overtime. Tennessee was -13 YPG last season and right around dead even in their yards per play differential (+0.1 YPP differential).
The defense is not championship caliber as they allowed nearly 28 PPG last season and ranked 29th in YPG allowed and 25th in YPP allowed. Offensively they were very good but can we expect QB Ryan Tannehill to duplicate his 33 TD performance from last season? His previous high was 27 TD’s back in 2014. He also threw just 7 picks in 2020 after averaging 11.5 interceptions through his first 7 seasons. He did add WR Julio Jones to his weaponry, however, Jones has been in the league 10+ seasons and missed 7 games last year in Atlanta. He may not make as big of an impact as some might think. They obviously rely heavily on RB Derrick Henry but will his heavy workload (almost 700 carries the last 2 seasons) start wearing on him? It’s highly possible. On top of that, 7 of Tennessee’s 16 regular season games they will be facing a defense that finished in the top 10 last year in yards per carry allowed.
Their schedule is tough with 5 games vs division winners this season (KC, Seattle, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, & New Orleans). That doesn’t include their 2 games vs AFC South rival Indianapolis who tied the Titans for the division title last year but lost the tie breaker. Much can change as the season progresses, however with the full season lines already posted, the Titans are slated to be favored in only half of their games this year. We think this team struggles to get to double digit wins in 2021.