by Chuck Sommers
Wednesday, Aug 31, 2022
Game time: 7 p.m. ET
Venue: Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, MI
Where to watch: ESPN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Michigan State -22; total 54.5
FanDuel: Michigan State -21.5
BetMGM: Michigan State -19.5
Caesars: Michigan State -22; total 54.5
2021 season record
Western Michigan:
No. 15 Michigan State:
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Western Michigan - Michigan State preview, analysis and prediction
I've got this weird hunch we're about to find out a lot about the Michigan State Spartans within the first little bit of the season.
When you lose the best running back in the country, that can certainly create some questions. There's no denying what Kenneth Walker III brought to that school, and now the uncertainty within the Michigan State backfield makes me wonder how much more can Payton Thorne do after a solid 2021 campaign.
We'll find out quickly when No. 15 Michigan State opens its season against the Western Michigan Broncos.
The Spartans are coming off what I would consider an over-achieving year in 2021. It was a group that started 8-0 and included a shocking home victory against Michigan, but then got trounced by Ohio State three weeks later. The Spartans made the Peach Bowl, a worthy accomplishment, but defeated a Pittsburgh team that didn't have Kenny Pickett throwing to Jordan Addison.
So how much stock can we really put into this Michigan State club this year? For starters, Thorne returns for his junior year after a strong 27-touchdown, 10-interception season. But the case can be made that if Michigan State wants to stay competitive with the big boys of the Big Ten, Thorne needs to become that guy in the echelon of CJ Stroud.
We're not even sure if he's really that guy, and that's not to say it's a bad thing. But there's just too much uncertainty with the running back situation that it might need a Heisman-caliber season from Thorne in his junior year for those hopes and aspirations to come to fruition.
The good news for Thorne is he's not short on talent to throw the ball to. Even though Jalen Nailor is now in the NFL, leading receiver Jayden Reed returns after a 1,000-yard season with 10 touchdown receptions on just 59 catches. Tre Mosley enters his junior year more than capable of filling in for Nailor's production. Mosley had 530 yards and three touchdowns on just 35 receptions.
The Spartans, for the moment, are relying on the transfer portal to carry them in the running game. Former Wisconsin tailback Jalen Berger appears to be the starter going into this season, with Jarek Broussard and Harold Joiner -- a redshirt junior and senior, respectively -- likely filling in when needed.
Berger will be tasked with trying to come close to replicating what Walker did, and that's a tall ask for anyone. Walker broke games open and changed games with one run on so many occasions. It's why Michigan State got off to that hot start last year. I think it's pretty daunting to ask anyone to fill the shoes of Walker, but however Michigan State handles that will be interesting to see.
Western Michigan wasn't one of the teams occupying the logjam at the top of the MAC last year, but still won seven games and reached a bowl game. The Broncos got off to a 4-1 start highlighted by a 44-41 win over Pittsburgh at Heinz Field. The up-and-down season was capped off with a win in the Quick Lane Bowl against Nevada-Reno.
But the Broncos will need to figure out how to replace the production left behind from leading receiver Skyy Moore, taken in the second round by the Kansas City Chiefs this past NFL Draft. Quarterback Kaleb Eleby is also gone after graduating. Jack Salopek and Mareyohn Hrabowski are the two quarterbacks left from last year that saw playing time.
When you lose the best running back in the country, that can certainly create some questions. There's no denying what Kenneth Walker III brought to that school, and now the uncertainty within the Michigan State backfield makes me wonder how much more can Payton Thorne do after a solid 2021 campaign.
We'll find out quickly when No. 15 Michigan State opens its season against the Western Michigan Broncos.
The Spartans are coming off what I would consider an over-achieving year in 2021. It was a group that started 8-0 and included a shocking home victory against Michigan, but then got trounced by Ohio State three weeks later. The Spartans made the Peach Bowl, a worthy accomplishment, but defeated a Pittsburgh team that didn't have Kenny Pickett throwing to Jordan Addison.
So how much stock can we really put into this Michigan State club this year? For starters, Thorne returns for his junior year after a strong 27-touchdown, 10-interception season. But the case can be made that if Michigan State wants to stay competitive with the big boys of the Big Ten, Thorne needs to become that guy in the echelon of CJ Stroud.
We're not even sure if he's really that guy, and that's not to say it's a bad thing. But there's just too much uncertainty with the running back situation that it might need a Heisman-caliber season from Thorne in his junior year for those hopes and aspirations to come to fruition.
The good news for Thorne is he's not short on talent to throw the ball to. Even though Jalen Nailor is now in the NFL, leading receiver Jayden Reed returns after a 1,000-yard season with 10 touchdown receptions on just 59 catches. Tre Mosley enters his junior year more than capable of filling in for Nailor's production. Mosley had 530 yards and three touchdowns on just 35 receptions.
The Spartans, for the moment, are relying on the transfer portal to carry them in the running game. Former Wisconsin tailback Jalen Berger appears to be the starter going into this season, with Jarek Broussard and Harold Joiner -- a redshirt junior and senior, respectively -- likely filling in when needed.
Berger will be tasked with trying to come close to replicating what Walker did, and that's a tall ask for anyone. Walker broke games open and changed games with one run on so many occasions. It's why Michigan State got off to that hot start last year. I think it's pretty daunting to ask anyone to fill the shoes of Walker, but however Michigan State handles that will be interesting to see.
Western Michigan wasn't one of the teams occupying the logjam at the top of the MAC last year, but still won seven games and reached a bowl game. The Broncos got off to a 4-1 start highlighted by a 44-41 win over Pittsburgh at Heinz Field. The up-and-down season was capped off with a win in the Quick Lane Bowl against Nevada-Reno.
But the Broncos will need to figure out how to replace the production left behind from leading receiver Skyy Moore, taken in the second round by the Kansas City Chiefs this past NFL Draft. Quarterback Kaleb Eleby is also gone after graduating. Jack Salopek and Mareyohn Hrabowski are the two quarterbacks left from last year that saw playing time.
Prediction
Michigan State will play the usual card of not overlooking the opponent, but with so many unknowns facing Western Michigan going into this matchup, it's hard not to think even with the questions with the Spartans that this shouldn't be an issue.
Betting trends
Western Michigan is 71-74 ATS in road games since 1992.
Western Michigan is 55-67 ATS as an underdog since 1992.
Michigan State is 90-99 ATS at home since 1992.
Michigan State is 15-10 against MAC opponents since 1992.
2021 statistical leaders
Western Michigan:
Passing: Kaleb Eleby -- 3,277 yards, 23 TD, 6 INT
Rushing: Sean Tyler -- 1,150 yards, 9 TD
Receiving: Skyy Moore -- 1,292 yards, 10 TD
Michigan State:
Passing: Payton Thorne -- 3,240 yards, 27 TD, 10 INT
Rushing: Kenneth Walker III --- 1,636 yards, 18 TD
Receiving: Jayden Reed -- 1,026 yards, 10 TD
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
