by Chuck Sommers
Tuesday, Nov 30, 2021Conference USA Championship Game
Game time: 7 p.m. ET; Dec. 3, 2021
Venue: Alamodome, San Antonio, TX
Where to watch: CBS Sports Network
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Western Kentucky -1
BetMGM: Western Kentucky -1.5
Caesars: Western Kentucky -1
Season record
Western Kentucky: 8-4 (7-1 C-USA)
UTSA: 11-1 (7-1 C-USA)
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Western Kentucky - UTSA preview and analysis
Last week
Western Kentucky: won 53-21 at Marshall
UTSA: lost 45-23 at North Texas
The Cinderella-like perfect season is over for the UTSA Roadrunners and there will be no last-second chance at a high profile bowl game this postseason.
But the Roadrunners still have a potential 13-win season in sight and can at least set themselves up for a strong finish, starting with the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers in the Conference USA title game on Friday in the Alamodome.
Things couldn’t have gone any better through the first 11 games for UTSA, coming off a thrilling 34-31 win against the UAB Blazers and cementing a spot as a top-15 team in the country. That might have drained everything out of UTSA after getting steamrolled by 22 against the suddenly-surging North Texas Mean Green.
The Roadrunners lost three fumbles in the first half in rainy conditions, and UTSA fell behind 31-13 at halftime and ultimately 45-13 heading into the fourth quarter. Quarterback Frank Harris went only 7 of 14 for 59 yards but did rush for 97 and a touchdown. The usually explosive UTSA offense was held to just 366 total yards and got only 60 from leading rusher Sincere McCormick.
UTSA’s defense, which has been a strong component this season, fell flat at the worst time. UTSA allowed six rushing touchdowns from North Texas’ run game that also averaged 5.7 yards per carry on 60 attempts.
“I think human nature is we probably weren’t as juiced up as we were last week,” said UTSA coach Jeff Traylor. “But it wasn’t like a bad effort. They were at a 10 and we probably played at an eight. And you turn it over three times in the weather, you're going to get embarrassed, which we did today.”
The 340 rushing yards were far and away the most UTSA has allowed this year. It’s a unit that has only given up 121.6 on the ground all season while holding passing attacks to just 225.
But Western Kentucky won’t run the ball, as UTSA knows all to well from their Oct. 9 matchup in which the Roadrunners won 52-46 at WKU. In perhaps the best quarterback battle in the conference this season, Harris (349 yards, 6 TDs) narrowly outdueled senior gunslinger Bailey Zappe (523 yards, 5 TDs).
While UTSA’s loss will hold more magnitude, Western Kentucky’s second half dominance against the Marshall Thundering Herd in the de facto East Division title game might have been the most shocking component of the weekend. Western Kentucky trailed 14-6 at halftime against a very good Marshall defense, then proceeded to outscore the Herd 47-7 in the second half.
The Western Kentucky offense outgained Marshall 485-325 and got 328 yards and four touchdowns from Zappe. The senior quarterback is closing in on 5,000 yards and is two games away from completing what might be one of the most prolific passing seasons in college football history.
The Hilltoppers started 1-4 with some very tough games in the process; they lost to Michigan State, Army and even UTSA in those first five games. WKU ended on a seven-game winning streak and scored at least 40 points in six of those games.
Prediction
It’s almost a pick-em at this rate, with the books buying high on Western Kentucky taking advantage of a wounded UTSA team. WKU has covered the last five with four of them as double-digit favorites. UTSA, meanwhile, has not covered in the last three and has appeared to run out of gas even at home. UTSA’s pass defense was in for a wild ride in the first meeting. A red-hot club coming off its most impressive performance this season, Western Kentucky has UTSA right where it wants it. Western Kentucky by 7
Betting trends
Western Kentucky is 4-0 ATS following an ATS win.
Western Kentucky is 4-0 ATS in its past four after scoring more than 40 in the last game.
UTSA is 8-1 in its last nine following an outright loss.
The under is 6-1 in UTSA’s last seven games.
Statistical leaders
Western Kentucky:
Passing: Bailey Zappe -- 4,958 yards, 52 TD, 9 INT
Rushing: Noah Wittington -- 452 yards, 1 TD
Receiving: Jerreth Sterns -- 1,539 yards, 12 TD
UTSA:
Passing: Frank Harris -- 2,688 yards, 23 TD, 5 INT
Rushing: Sincere McCormick -- 1,275 yards, 12 TD
Receiving: Zakhari Franklin -- 871 yards, 10 TD
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
