West Virginia Mountaineers vs TCU Horned Frogs Picks, Spread and Trends to Watch - 10/23/2021

by James Q

West Virginia Mountaineers vs TCU Horned Frogs Picks, Spread and Trends to Watch - 10/23/2021

 
Game Time: 7:30 pm ET, Saturday, October 23st, 2021
Venue:  Amon G Carter Stadium, Ft Worth, Texas
Where to Watch:  ESPNU
 

Opening NCAAF Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Spread: TCU -4.5; Over/Under:  56.5 points
Circa:  Spread: TCU -4.5; Over/Under:  56 points
Caesars:  Spread: TCU -4.5;  Over/Under:  56.5 points
 

Season Record

West Virginia: 0-3 conf, 1-5 overall (Big-12 conference)
Texas Christian University: 1-2 conf, 3-3 overall (Big 12 Conference)


 
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West Virginia vs TCU Preview and Analysis

 
Recent Form
West Virginia has won two games this season.  They beat Long Island University 66-0 and Virginia Tech 27-21.  They have been beaten by the Maryland Terrapins 30-24, the Oklahoma Sooners 16-13, the Texas Tech Red Raiders 23-20, and the Baylor Bears 45-20.  They do not have a winning record, but they played Maryland, Oklahoma, and Texas Tech real tough.  They made a game of the losses.
 
TCU has made a game of it too.  Sitting at .500, they can really hold their head high when reflecting on the 3 losses to really good teams.  TCU lost to the SMU Mustangs 42-34, the Texas Longhorns 32-27, and the #4 ranked Oklahoma Sooners 52-31.  The three wins were Duquesne 45-3, Cal 34-32, and Texas Tech 52-31. 
 
The games in common are Oklahoma and Texas Tech… TCU scored more but allowed more scoring in both those games.  WVU scored less but allowed less scoring in those games.  TCU got the only win.
 

Offensive Analysis

West Virginia has the 85th ranked offense in the FBS.  They have scored 19 touchdowns on an average of 374.2 yards per game.  They aren’t winning but they are moving the ball and scoring points.  Of course the 66-0 beat down of Long Island University (barely an opponent) is tilting these stats about 20 spots higher than they should be on the list.
 
TCU is ranked 20th on offense in the FBS.  They have scored 28 touchdowns on 460 yards per game.  TCU dropped 52 on Texas Tech.. WVU got only 20 points against them.
 
 

Defensive Analysis

WVU is ranked 46th in the FBS on defense.  They have allowed only 15 touchdowns on 350.2 yards per game.  WVU doesn’t win (at least yet) this year, but they play hard-nosed defensive football.

TCU is ranked 112th on defense in the FBS.  They have allowed 25 touchdowns on 445.2 yards per game.  They have a .500 record only because they can outscore some teams while stopping almost no one.

This is a classic matchup of one team (WVU) who is better on defense against another team (TCU) who is better on offense.  It will be strength against strength when TCU is on offense and Weakness against weakness when WVU is on offense.

 
 

West Virginia Mountaineers vs TCU Horned Frogs Prediction

Our prediction for Saturday, October 23rd is….   TCU 32 - WVU 24
 
I would skip the Over/Under on this one as WVU has been shown to hold the score down but still  lose games, while TCU can run the score up while still winning or losing.  It could break either way.  Yet because TCU is at home in the Texas sun with still plenty of avenues to reach a bowl game invite…. TCU will win and cover.
 
 
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NCAAF Betting Trends

WVU is 2-4 ATS when playing after a bye week.
TCU is 1-4 ATS this season.
TCU is 1-4 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 - 10 pts the last 3 seasons.
TCU is 1-2 ATS as a favorite this season.

 
 

Starting Lineups

WVU:  QB Jarret Doege, RB Leddie Brown, TE Mike O’laughlin, WR Bryce Ford-Wheaton, WR Isaiah Esdale, WR Sam James, WR Winston Wright Jr, LT Brandon Yates, LG James Gmiter, C Zach Frazier, RG Doug Nestor, RT Parker Moorer

TCU:  QB Max Duggan, RB Zach Evans, TE Carter Ware, WR Savion Williams, WR Quentin Johnson, WR Derius Davis, WR Blair Conwright, LT Obinna Eze, LG John Lanz, OC Steve Avila, RG Wes Harris, RT Andrew Coker

 

Statistical Leaders

WVU:
Passing Yards: Jarrett Doege 1,444
Rushing Yards: Leddie Brown 422
Receiving Yards: Winston Wright Jr 364
Tackles: Josh Chandler Semedo 49
Interceptions: Sean Mahone 1

TCU:
Passing Yards: Max Duggan 1,349
Rushing Yards: Zach Evans 586
Receiving Yards: Quentin Johnson 355
Tackles: T.J. Carter 37
Interception: T. Hodges-Tomlinson 2


COACHES:
West Virginia:  Neal Brown was announced as the West Virginia head coach January 5th 2019.  As of today his record is 13-15 overall… with a dismal 7-13 in conference.  He makes 3 million dollars a year.  
 
TCU: Gary Patterson is the winningest coach in TCU Horned Frogs history.  He has had the job since the year 2000.  His record is 181-77.  He is 11-6 in bowl games.  He makes 5.1 million dollars a year.
 

Weather Forecast

Mostly Sunny.  88-90 degrees at game time. Humidity 58%.  Wind 16 mph.


James Q

About the Author:

James Q. has been involved with sports and gambling his entire life. A former division 1 scholarship basketball player, James understands sports (and especially basketball) inside-and-out. Following his basketball playing days, James parlayed his gambling skills into a semi-pro poker career. James resides in Los Angeles, and especially loves the Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Rams, and Los Angeles Dodgers. And when he isn't betting on sports (and writing about it), James can be found performing stand-up comedy on the Sunset Strip.

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