by Chuck Sommers
Saturday, Nov 27, 2021
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
Venue: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
Where to watch: Bally Sports Southwest-Dallas, NBC Sports Washington
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Mavericks -7.5
BetMGM: Mavericks -7.5
Caesars: NL
Season record
Wizards: 12-7
Mavericks: 10-7
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Wizards - Mavericks preview and analysis
Recent form
Wizards: won 101-99 at Thunder on Friday
Mavericks: won 112-104 (OT) on Tuesday
The Dallas Mavericks will try to build off what might be their best win this season when they host the Washington Wizards at American Airlines Center on Saturday.
The Mavericks ended a three-game losing streak on Tuesday, a 112-104 overtime victory against the Los Angeles Clippers in a game they likely should have lost.
It was the same old Mavs showing up late in the fourth quarter, having a comfortable lead only for Paul George to beat the buzzer in regulation with a miraculous three to send it to OT.
But behind a 26-9-9 line from Luka Doncic and a very strong 30-point night from Kristaps Porzingis, Dallas fans got their first look at the LD-KP duo in all its glory.
"For a second you are disappointed because we should have finished them off (in regulation), but I think we are growing mentally as a team," said Porzingis. "We realized it was five more minutes and we went out there and proved we are the superior team."
Doncic missed the previous three games with an ankle/knee sprain, leaving Porzingis to carry the load offensively during that time. Even prior to that, the 7-foot-3 big man has done more than that. His streak of seven straight 20-point games are a career-high and he's averaging 24 points and 9 rebounds on 51 percent shooting over his last 10.
When those two are on and playing at an elite level, it's almost impossible for teams to matchup with the Mavs. Even though moral victories without Doncic aren't allowed, it's been a great look on the books for Dallas, covering five of its last six with three coming by a margin of five points.
The same can't be said for the Wizards, who have cooled off recently and are playing the second night of a back to back after winning by 2 at the Oklahoma City Thunder on Friday.
Washington committed 15 turnovers but was able to hang on behind Bradley Beal's 20 points on 8 of 18 shooting, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope also added 20 with four 3-pointers for the Wizards' first win in three games.
"Lucky," Washington coach Wes Unseld Jr. said. "We got enough stops late in the fourth to come away with it, but there was a lot of coverage confusion during that stretch … We've got to be better."
Washington has lost five of six ATS but has been favored in the last three. Two of those losses were against the Charlotte Hornets and bizarre 25-point loss to the New Orleans Pelicans.
Prediction
The Mavs have covered their last four against winning teams and this will be a strong test against a very good team. Doncic and Porzingis need more than one game of evidence to show they can be formidable in the Western Conference. A game against a strong Washington team can do that. Mavericks by 10
Betting trends
The Wizards are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games facing a team with a winning home record.
The over is 4-0 in the last four Mavs games when the opponent scores 100 or more the previous game.
The Wizards are 4-1 ATS in the last five.
Projected starting lineup
Wizards:
PG: Spencer Dinwiddie
SG: Bradley Beal
SF: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
PF: Kyle Kuzma
C: Daniel Gafford
SF: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
PF: Kyle Kuzma
C: Daniel Gafford
Mavericks:
PG: Luka Doncic
SG: Tim Hardaway Jr.
SF: Dorian Finney-Smith
PF: Kristaps Porzingis
C: Willie Cauley-Stein
SF: Dorian Finney-Smith
PF: Kristaps Porzingis
C: Willie Cauley-Stein
Key injuries
Wizards: Thomas Bryant (knee, out)
Mavericks: Jalen Brunson (foot, day-to-day), Frank Ntilikina (calf, out)
Statistical leaders
Wizards:
Points: Bradley Beal -- 23.3
Rebounds: Kyle Kuzma -- 9.2
Assists: Bradley Beal -- 5.8
Mavericks:
Points: Luka Doncic -- 25.0
Rebounds: Luka Doncic -- 8.4
Assists: Luka Doncic -- 8.0
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
