Game Time: 4:10 pm ET, Sunday, August 21st, 2022 

Venue: Petco Park, San Diego, California

Where to Watch:  MLB.tv, MLBN Alt (JIP)

DraftKings: Nationals +215, Padres -256; O/U 8.5

Caesars:  

PointsBet: 

 

Nationals: 41-80, 5th place (last in division and conference) NL East

Padres: 66-56, 2nd place NL West

The idea that the Padres are done… is correct.  They keep losing and they are losing to a bad team.  I picked the Padres twice in this series and both times have failed. The prediction for Game 3 is out already and that game will be played Saturday night.  That prediction stands that you should bet the Padres on the moneyline.  This prediction is for Game 4 of the series which will be played Sunday afternoon.  I get the feeling several Padres’ season ticket holders will be giving away their tickets because of a renewed lack of interest in the team.  Still we have to check the numbers and rely on the pitching matchup… so check the prediction below.

Going into this series (Thursday Game 1) the Padres won their last game against someone else and the Padres lost their last game against someone else.  That is true to form with how the series will be viewed and how the betting lines will be landed.  I do not recommend this too often, but if you can get a bet in today (Thursday)... go ahead and bet on the Padres to win every game of this series in a SWEEP…. Otherwise this prediction is for Friday Night’s game 2… check the prediction below and make that bet.  

A National League matchup between two teams that are seriously hurting.  The Washington Nationals are the worst thing going in the National League.  They are a billboard for “allowing it all to slip away”!  They won the 2019 World Series for Criminey Sake!  They had a stacked roster… then like the slow motion memory of an instant car crash… The Nationals lost key guys, made trades for the future, and now find themselves at the bottom of a well.  Some of it may have something to do with pitchers getting huge contracts and then falling apart physically… but some of the horribleness is simple bad faith team building.  If they end up a winning team 5 years from now it will be a miracle.  The San Diego Padres recently got kicked where the sun don’t shine very hard and very suddenly.  The San Diego Padres made a great trade to land Juan Soto from the Nationals and pair him with Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis JR (just as Fernando was supposed to return from injury.  It was a smart move… The Padres could have finished the season with the only top-three in the batting line-up that would have rivaled the Dodgers top-three.  Then the noticeably swollen Fernando Tatis Jr tested positive for steroids… steroids he needed to kill ringworm… but steroids nonetheless.  Fernando is done for the season.  The Padres now have to make a 400-500 million dollar decade long commitment to Juan Soto without ever knowing if the three guys will fit together enough to make MLB magic happen.    The Padres still have Machado and Soto playing together… but they don’t and won’t have the complete pipe dream until next season. The Padres are 17 games behind the Dodgers… There are plenty of games left, but not a lot of momentum in the Padres favor.

The Washington Nationals have won only 3 of their last 10 games.  Their batting ain’t good and their pitching is the worst… so 3 wins over 10 could be seen as a successful stretch.  No one believes the Nationals will do anything other than simple experimentation with the rest of the season. Guys will get called up, random guys will rest for no reason… The bullpen will be full of no names looking to secure a spot on the team.  And if any of the starters display any real talent… they will be traded away in the off-season.  They went 1-1 versus the Chicago Cubs, They went 1-2 against THESE San Diego Padres, 1-2 against the Chicago Cubs again, and 0-2 against the Philadelphia Phillies.

The San Diego Padres have won only 4 of their last 10 games.  That is not a good pace for a team mired in 2nd place in the NL West behind the league leading Los Angeles Dodgers.  Although the Padres have Machado and Soto, two of the league’s best batters, they are barely above average on offense.  The Padres pitchers however are top-ten in multiple categories.  This team won’t get it done this season, but can have a bright future if they are willing to kick the spending into a higher gear next season.  They went 0-2 against the Miami Marlins, 2-1 against THESE Washington Nationals, 2-1 against the San Francisco Giants, and 0-2 against the Los Angeles Dodgers (⅔ of a Dodgers SWEEP).

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The Nationals are 26th in scoring with 3.80 runs per game, 12th in batting average with .249, and 14th in OBP with .315.

The Padres are 15th in scoring with 4.43, 16th in batting average with .242, and 9th in OBP with .319.

The Nationals pitching is 30th in ERA with 5.28 (the entire team averages what would be the worst starting pitcher on most teams), 30th in WHIP with 1.48, and the fielders are 28th in errors with 76 on the season so far.

The Padres pitching is 10th in ERA with 3.78, 7th in WHIP with 1.21, and the fielders are 5th in errors with 52 on the season so far.

 

Our prediction for Sunday, August 21st is…  Padres 5 - Nationals 3

 

The Padres took lumps in the first two games of this series… killing my personal betting prediction record for August (It’s still above 70%, but it isn’t in personal best territory.  The Nationals challenge will be that they are running out of quality pitching (as if they had any to start)... The Padres still have the advantage in every statistical category… So, this prediction is to either skip this game if you believe the Padres have a tumor that is slowly killing them… or to bet the Padres on the moneyline knowing that they (and no one else) will get SWEPT by the Nationals.  So the prediction is for the Padres on the moneyline.  

 

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The Nationals are 78-160 as an underdog of +100 or higher (-38.1 UNITS) the last 3 seasons.

The Nationals are 130-211 in all games (-54.6 UNITS) the last 3 seasons.

The Padres are 31-14 as a favorite of +150 or higher this season (+4 UNITS).

Nationals: SS L. Garcia (groin) Out, SS C. Kieboom (elbow) Out ** Plus 5 guts considered starting pitchers… including the most infamous Stephen Strasburgh.

Padres: SS Fernando Tatis JR (steroids/suspension) Out ** and 5 relief pitchers.

Nationals: LHP Patrick Corbin, 4-16, 6.96 ERA, 105 strikeouts in 116 innings pitched.  1.80 WHIP.  Patrick has terrible numbers this season which are demonstrably worse than his bad numbers for his career.  The 33 year old may need extensive rehab work as a middle reliever in the minors.  He also has a long retirement looming.

Padres: LHP Sean Manaea, 6-6, 4.83 ERA, 128 strikeouts in 123 innings pitched.  1.33 WHIP.  The Manealator has been slowly declining as the summer goes on.  The 30 year old needs a shot in his arm for his numbers.  The Nationals are the perfect team to get better numbers against.

Nationals: CF Victor Robles, RF Joey Meneses, 1B Luke Voit, DH Nelson Cruz, LF Lane Thomas, 2B Cesar Hernandez, SS CJ Abrams, C Tres Barrere, 3B Ildemaro Vargas

Padres:  LF Jurickson Profar, RF Juan Soto, 3B Manny Machado, DH Josh Bell, 2B Jake Cronenworth, 1B Wil Myers, CF Trent Grisham, SS Ha-Seong Kim, C Jorge Alfaro, 

Nationals: Dave Martinez

Padres: Bob “ringworm is a real problem” Melvin

Partly Cloudy. 76*, Humidity 73%, Wind 9 mph.  Precipitation 10% chance… though not likely.