Game Time: 10:10 pm ET, Tuesday, July 26th, 2022 

Venue: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, California

Where to Watch: MLBN, MLB.tv

DraftKings: Nationals +210, Dodgers -250; O/U

Caesars:  

PointsBet: 

 

Nationals: 32-65, 5th place NL East

Dodgers: 64-30, 1st place NL West

Juan Soto is coming to Los Angeles.  It’s a National League battle between the Worst in the East and the best in the West.  The reason I bring up Juan Soto at the top of the article is that the rumors are flying fast and frenzied.  Juan (best young hitter in baseball) Soto recently turned down a $444 million dollar 15 season contract from the Nationals.  The rumor mill naturally shifted to “where will he be traded?”... The Candidates are the New York Yankees, the New York Mets, the Houston Astros, and the Los Angeles Dodgers… all teams that are willing to immediately offer Juan the same money for 13 seasons (the San Francisco Giants are a dark horse candidate in their sudden rebuild mode). The leading rumored name is of course the Dodgers.  Juan’s best friend in baseball is former teammate Trea Turner, who plays for the Dodgers… plus the Dodgers are ridiculously deep with both batters and pitchers and can spare lots of names from their minor league system as they have no positions to call those guys up to.  Plus the Dodgers have a rise in back-up OF Trace Thompson as both a hitter and fielder (he single-handedly won their last game with a 2 run homer and a great outfield catch to steal a homer)... That means that a name like Cody Bellinger, Justin Turner, Max Muncy, Gavin Smith could be thrown into the deal.  The Dodgers lost Joc Pederson to the Giants this last off-season and he is currently the Giants best hitter and All-Star… something that would have never happened to Joc if he were still on the Dodgers.  If the Nationals want a guy and a fully loaded minor league system they can simply say “yes”. On the Dodgers side of it… They have proven over and over that they do not care what the team salary will land at… They will pay it for World Series opportunities.  Also It would be a defensive play to keep Soto off of the Yankees and Mets… the Dodgers could not pass up making a huge offer… or risk facing Soto at a key time in the off-season.  So with that out of the way… Let’s check the numbers.

The Washington Nationals have won only 2 of their last 10 games… That is how any team gets to be a last place team… enough weeks like that and the whole world writes you off… They have been written off.  They went 1-2 against the lowly Arizona Diamondbacks, 1-3 against the Atlanta Braves, 0-1 against the Seattle Mariners, and 0-2 against the Atlanta Braves (again).  A lot of losing with an All-Star break wedged in between.  If I were Juan Soto, I would put the heat on the Nationals to move me also… There is no chance… no matter what Juan makes per year… that he could be happy being the best hitter on one of the worst teams in the league with no chance of ever winning anything of substance.  I would like to go to any of the top-4 teams… I would even take similar if not a little less money (he won’t have to).  Juan leads the Nationals in home runs (20), batting average (.305), and OPS (.886)... If he finds himself on a quality team in the next couple of weeks… opposing batters will not be able to pitch around him… His HOF yellow brick road will take him as far as his body can handle.

The Los Angeles Dodgers can not stop winning.  Not that they have tried… but even in games when they have been pushed to the limits of ninth inning heroics… They still win! The Dodgers have won 9 of their last ten games… They are on an 8-game winning streak… with six of those coming against the 2 most hated teams in Dodger fans’ hearts.  They went 4-0 against the San Francisco Giants (hated #1),  2-0 against the Los Angeles Angels (hated #2), 2-1 against the St Louis Cardinals, and 1-0 against the Chicago Cubs.  Everything is working at the moment.  The batting line-up offers Mookie Betts, Trea Turner, Freddie Freeman as 1,2,3… That is a formula for success at any time in baseball history.  The pitching offers a steady rotation of Kershaw, Gonsolin, and Anderson… The scary part is that the Dodgers have 5 starting pitchers on the injury list… 4 of them returning soon or kinda soon… while the 5th, Trevor Bauer, will never throw a MLB pitch again… not to mention the half dozen relief pitchers returning soon from the injury list (sounds like a lot of names to offer the Nationals for Soto).   

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The Nationals are 27th in scoring with 3.82 runs per game, 13th in batting average with .246, and 16th in OBP with .315.

The Dodgers are 2nd in scoring with 5.13 runs per game, 5th in batting average with .255, 1st in OBP .333

The Nationals pitching is 29th in team ERA with 5.17, 29th in WHIP with 1.46, and 28th in errors with 64 on the season so far.  The Nationals are one of the worst 2 teams in all these defensive categories and they have been all season.

The Dodgers pitching is 1st in team ERA with 2.96, 1st in WHIP, and 7th in errors with 41 on the season so far.

 

Our prediction for Tuesday July 26th is… Dodgers 9 - Nationals 1

 

These two teams are not remotely close in any statistical category.  The Dodgers are top-3 in most categories… The Nationals are bottom 2 in most categories… This will be an opening game route.  An absolute spanking.  If you are worried about Juan Soto going yard to prove to LA that they need to up their offer?... I’ve already factored that in!  The moneyline is wacky with the Dodger - 250… That is a hard gambling pill to swallow.  However, it is so high because it is most likely.  I will be betting on the Dodgers on the moneyline… I will also add a bet on the Dodgers ATS… Seriously… this is the type of game where it is worth giving up a couple runs to get even money returns (only it will be a smaller bet than my moneyline bet).

 

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The Nationals are 7-17 as an underdog of +175 - +250.

The Dodgers are 250-73 as a home favorite of -200 or more since 1997.

The Dodgers are 324-106 as a favorite of  -200 or more since 1997. 

Nationals: SS C. Kieboom (elbow) ** Plus 4 starting pitchers and 6 relief pitchers… Of course those are Nationals pitchers so we aren’t missing much.

Dodgers: LF Chris Taylor (Foot) Out ** 3B Edwin Rios (hamstring) Out

Nationals: RHP Josiah Gray, 7-6, 4.46 ERA, 106 strikeouts in 92 innings pitched.  1.27 WHIP.  Josiah is a great young pitcher with a strong young arm.  He can throw that speed ball by ya… Make you look like a fool boy.  However… He does not get enough run support or relief innings to translate that into enough winning.  He has a great smile and a bog arm and is easy to root for.

Dodgers: RHP Mitch White, 1-2, 3.78 ERA, 43 strikeouts in 50 innings pitched. 1.22 WHIP.  Mitch starts games when the Dodgers have determined the matchup a cake walk.  He will help by giving the Starters a break and Mitch will give way to the bullpen early.  His ERA is better than Josiah Gray’s… even if his talent is a notch below.  I fully expect Mitch will give up a lone run to the Nationals (most likely a Soto RBI) before he is pulled.  Still it will be 3 innings of relief right at the start.  

Nationals: 2B Cesar Hernandez, RF Juan Soto, 1B Josh Bell, DH Nelson Cruz, LF Yadiel Hernandez, SS Luis Garcia, C Keibert Ruiz, 3B Ehire, Adianza, CF Victor Robles

Dodgers: RF Mookie Betts, SS Trea Turner, 1B Freddie Freeman, DH Will Smith, 2B Max Muncy, 3B Justin Turner,. C Austin Barnes, LF Gavin Lux, CF Cody Bellinger

 

Nationals: Dave “we did win recently… right?’ Martinez

Dodgers: Dave “ get me more rings, Mookie” Roberts

Partly Cloudy, 79*, Humidity 63%, Wind 8 mph.  Precipitation chance 10%.  Good baseball weather whether there is good baseball in the forecast or not.  The high humidity might hold some homers down to fly-outs… but there will be plenty of big hits.