by Chuck Sommers
Friday, Sep 24, 2021
Game time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Venue: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, OH
Where to watch: MASN 2, Bally Sports Ohio
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Reds -150, Nationals +130
BetMGM: Reds -143, Nationals +120
Caesars: Reds -140, Nationals +130
Season record
Nationals: 64-90 (Last place, NL East)
Reds: 79-75 (3rd place, NL Central)
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Nationals - Reds preview and analysis
Recent form
Nationals: 5-5 in last 10
Reds: 4-6 in last 10
Time may be running out for the Cincinnati Reds, but what a run it was.
From the depths of obscurity to almost making the playoffs, there was a lot to like from what the Reds accomplished up until September. It’s not their fault the St. Louis Cardinals went full God mode and decided to obliterate everything in its wake the past few weeks.
But the Reds can still put a positive finish to this season, and will continue a four-game series at home against the Washington Nationals on Saturday.
After losing the first game 3-2 on Thursday, the Reds responded with an 8-7 victory in 11 innings. Nick Castellanos hit his 30th home run of the season while going 2-for-5, and Aristides Aquino drove in the game-winning run with a walk-off single.
“He continues to work and work and work and not get any results,” Reds manager David Bell said of Aquino. “So to come through, not only get a hit, but to get a game-winner -- those don’t come around very often for any player.”
The last outing wasn’t kind to Reds starter Sonny Gray (4 IP, 4 ER, 4 BB, 3 strikeouts), but it was just about as good as what Paolo Espino could do in five innings of work and only allowing three runs. Washington’s three-game winning streak came to an end, while the Reds avoided a fifth loss in six games.
The underdogs from Washington are near the end of a tumultuous season that will be remembered for trading to stars and leaving one to fend for himself. With Trea Turner and Max Scherzer now with the Los Angeles Dodgers, it’s Juan Soto’s ship now. Soto went 0-for-2 on Friday but drew four walks in the loss, but his batting average continues to creep toward .330 on the season. He’s been the mainstay in how inconsistent Washington’s lineup has been.
The Cincinnati relievers were taxed plenty from the seventh inning on, which may not bode well heading into Saturday as Cincinnati’s weak bullpen should ultimately cost them. Vladimir Gutierrez is getting the start as the Reds continue to look up at the Milwaukee Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals in the NL Central.
Prediction
Look for the Reds to have a better game on the mound. While Nationals starter Erick Fedde has done better as of late, the Reds seem determined to finish this one off strong, and I like them in this instance. Reds win 7-2
Betting trends
The Nationals are 17-39 (-18 net games on the moneyline) when an underdog between +100 and +150 this season.
The Reds are 27-22 (-5.6 net games) when a favorite of -125 to -175.
Players to watch
Nationals: Soto had a nine-game hitting streak end on Friday, but he was stellar in that run with a .567 batting average and four home runs.
Reds: Votto is batting .360 in his last nine games to go with three homers and five RBI.
Projected lineup
Nationals:
Lane Thomas (R) CF
Alcides Escobar (R) SS
Juan Soto (L) RF
Josh Bell (S) 1B
Luis Garcia (L) 2B
Keibert Ruiz (S) C
Jordy Mercer (R) 3B
Andrew Stevenson (L) LF
Erick Fedde (R) P
Reds:
Jonathan India (R) 2B
Max Schrock (L) LF
Nick Castellanos (R) RF
Joey Votto (L) 1B
Kyle Farmer (R) SS
Eugenio Suarez (R) 3B
Tucker Barnhart (L) C
TJ Friedl (L) CF
Vladimir Gutierrez (R) P
Statistical leaders
Nationals:
Batting average: Juan Soto (.324)
Hits: Juan Soto (154)
Home runs: Juan Soto (29)
RBI: Juan Soto (92)
Stolen bases: Juan Soto (9)
Wins: Patrick Corbin (9)
Saves: Brad Hand (21)
ERA: Patrick Corbin (5.92)
Reds:
Batting average: Nick Castellanos (.308)
Hits: Nick Castellanos (157)
Home runs: Joey Votto (33)
RBI: Joey Votto (92)
Stolen bases: Jonathan India (11)
Wins: Wade Miley & Tyler Mahle (12)
Saves: Mychal Givens (8)
ERA: Wade Miley (3.37)
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
