by Rod Pearson
Wednesday, Nov 01, 2023
Game Time: 1:00 pm ET, Sunday, November 5, 2023
Venue: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
Where to Watch: FOX
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Commanders +3, Patriots -3; Over/Under: 40 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Commanders +3, Patriots -3; Over/Under: 40 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Commanders +3, Patriots -3; Over/Under: 40 points
Season Record
Washington Commanders: 3-5 (3rd place, NFC East)
New England Patriots: 2-6 (4th place, AFC East)
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Recent Form
Washington Commanders: lost their last game at home against the Philadelphia Eagles 38-31.
New England Patriots: lost their last game on the road against the Miami Dolphins 31-17.
Washington Commanders vs New England Patriots Preview and Analysis
The Commanders are entering this game with a 3-5 record overall and they have a 0-3 record in their divisional games too. They are 1-3 in their home games, 2-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against the Philadelphia Eagles 38-31. Sam Howell was the starting QB and he completed 39/52 passes for 397 passing yards, 4 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Brian Robinson Jr. led the team in rushing yards with 59. Jahan Dotson led the receivers with 108 receiving yards on 8 receptions and 1 TD. David Mayo led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while Montez Sweat and Casey Toohill each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that game.
The Patriots are entering this game with a 2-6 record overall and they have a 2-2 record in their divisional games too. They are 1-3 in their home games, 1-3 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against the Miami Dolphins 31-17. Mac Jones was the starting QB and he completed 19/29 passes for 161 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Rhamondre Stevenson led the team in rushing yards with 39. Kendrick Bourne led the receivers with 36 receiving yards on 3 receptions and 1 TD. Kyle Dugger led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Kyle Dugger and Christian Barmore each led the defense in sacks with 1. Kyle Dugger came away with the only interception for them in that game.
Commanders vs Patriots Prediction
The current betting odds have the Patriots listed as a 3 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Patriots are only 2-6 this season and they have looked terrible in their games with a lot of blow out losses. They lost again last week in their road game against the Dolphins but now they are back at home and the Commanders haven't really been any better this year. The Commanders are only 3-5 this season and they haven't looked good in their games lately. Their defense has been a mess all season with the number of points they have been giving up and they just traded away 2 key players on defense too. The Patriots haven't been that good this season but they are at home and will be looking to bounce back, especially now that they are getting a weakened Commanders team after the trade deadline. The best way to place a bet here is on the Patriots to cover the spread in this game.
Commanders Patriots Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Sunday, November 5, 2023 (1:00 pm ET start time) is Patriots 24 Commanders 16.
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NFL Betting Trends
Washington Commanders: 9-22 ATS against AFC East division opponents. 5-10 ATS after a game with 50 or more pass attempts. 9-16 ATS off 2 straight losses against division rivals. 25-16 UNDER in all games. 12-5 UNDER in games where the line is +3 to -3.
New England Patriots: 8-2 ATS after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 5 straight games. 53-28 ATS after allowing 30 points or more last game. 15-7 UNDER in games where the line is +3 to -3. 26-14 UNDER off a road loss against a division rival.
Key Injuries
Washington Commanders: C. Holmes (CB) day-to-day - Hamstring. C. Hodges (TE) day-to-day - Illness. C. Turner (TE) day-to-day - Ankle. C. Samuel (WR) day-to-day - Toe. S. Charles (G) Out indefinitely - Calf. C. Barton (LB) Out indefinitely - Ankle. J. Reaves (S) I-R - Knee. D. Forrest (S) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. D. Milne (WR) Out indefinitely - Groin. B. Dillon (TE) I-R - Undisclosed. B. Daniels (OL) I-R - Shoulder. C. Brooks (DT) I-R - Undisclosed. T. Apke (CB) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. D. Bada (DT) I-R - Tricep. A. Rogers (TE) I-R - Achilles.
New England Patriots: K. Bourne (WR) out for season - Knee. D. Parker (WR) day-to-day - Concussion. J. Uche (LB) day-to-day - Foot. C. Anderson (OL) day-to-day - Illness. R. Reiff (OL) Out indefinitely - Knee. K. Boutte (WR) Out indefinitely - Hamstring. T. Wheatley Jr. (OT) Out indefinitely - Knee. M. Judon (LB) Early Dec - Bicep. C. Gonzalez (CB) I-R - Shoulder. D. Ekuale (DL) Out indefinitely - Bicep. M. Jones (DB) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. I. Bolden (CB) I-R - Neck. R. McMillan (LB) I-R - Achilles.
Notable Quotes
“Those are tough plays that I have to make. When you’ve got a young quarterback, you’ve got to find a way to make those plays, so I definitely own that and take accountability.” - Terry McLaurin after their loss against the Eagles in their last game.
“We all need to play better. We all just need to coach and play better.” - Bill Belichick after his team’s loss against the Dolphins in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Washington Commanders
WR McLaurin, Terry
WR Dotson, Jahan
WR Samuel, Curtis
TE THOMAS, LOGAN
QB Howell, Sam
RB Robinson Jr., Brian
FB Armah, Alex
New England Patriots
WR PARKER, DEVANTE
WR Bourne, Kendrick
WR Douglas, Demario
TE Henry, Hunter
QB Jones, Mac
RB Stevenson, Rhamondre
Statistical Leaders
Washington Commanders
Passing: S. Howell (2146)
Rushing: B. Robinson (384)
Receiving: T. McLaurin (495)
Touchdowns: B. Robinson (6)
New England Patriots
Passing: M. Jones (1641)
Rushing: R. Stevenson (307)
Receiving: K. Bourne (406)
Touchdowns: K. Bourne (4)
Coaches:
Washington Commanders: Ron Rivera (4th season)
New England Patriots: Bill Belichick (24th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
