by Rod Pearson
Tuesday, Nov 11, 2025
Game Time: 9:30 am ET, Sunday, November 16, 2025
Venue: Bernabéu, Madrid, Spain
Where to Watch: NFL Network, NFL+
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Commanders +2.5, Dolphins -2.5; Over/Under: 47.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Commanders +2.5, Dolphins -2.5; Over/Under: 47.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Commanders +2.5, Dolphins -2.5; Over/Under: 47.5 points
Season Record
Washington Commanders: 3-7 (3rd place, NFC East)
Miami Dolphins: 3-7 (3rd place, AFC East)
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Recent Form
Washington Commanders: lost their last game at home against the Detroit Lions 44-22.
Miami Dolphins: won their last game at home against the Buffalo Bills 30-13.
Washington Commanders vs Miami Dolphins Preview and Analysis
The Commanders are entering this game with a 3-7 record overall and they have a 1-1 record in their divisional games too. They are 2-3 in their home games, 1-4 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at a neutral site for this game. They lost their last game against the Detroit Lions 44-22. Marcus Mariota was the starting QB and he completed 16/22 passes for 213 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Jacory Croskey-Merritt led the team in rushing yards with 30. Treylon Burks led the receivers with 58 receiving yards on 3 receptions. Bobby Wagner led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while no one on the defense recorded a sack for them. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
The Dolphins are entering this game with a 3-7 record overall and they have a 2-2 record in their divisional games too. They are 2-3 in their home games, 1-4 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at a neutral site for this game. They won their last game against the Buffalo Bills 30-13. Tua Tagovailoa was the starting QB and he completed 15/21 passes for 173 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. De’Von Achane led the team in rushing yards with 174 and 2 TDs. Jaylen Waddle led the receivers with 84 receiving yards on 5 receptions and 1 TD. Jordyn Brooks led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 6 assisted tackles while Bradley Chubb, Willie Gay Jr., and Zach Sieler each led the defense in sacks with 1. Ifeatu Melifonwu came away with the only interception for them in that one.
Commanders vs Dolphins Prediction
The current betting odds have the Dolphins listed as a 2.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Dolphins have looked terrible in their games this season with their 3-7 record overall which has them right near the bottom of the AFC East. Their season has been a disaster and is pretty much over for them with 7 losses already and the firing of their GM the other week, but they are still off a big 30-13 win over the Bills in their last one and haven't shown any signs of quitting just yet. Meanwhile, the Commanders haven't looked good in their games this season with their 3-7 record overall which has them right near the bottom of the NFC East. They are off a 44-22 loss at home to the Lions in their last one and they have been dealing with a ton of injuries. They are missing key players on both offense and defense, including their starting QB Jayden Daniels. The offense hasn't looked the same without him in the lineup and the defense has looked terrible all year. They have also lost 5 games in a row now and this is going to be a tough game in Spain to bounce back with the Dolphins showing some life again. The Dolphins haven't had a great defense this year either, but they definitely have the more stable offense at the moment and that will give them the edge here. The best way to place a bet here is on the Dolphins to cover the spread in this game.
Commanders Dolphins Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Sunday, November 16, 2025 (9:30 am ET start time) is Dolphins 20 Commanders 13.
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NFL Betting Trends
Washington Commanders: 3-6 ATS after a loss by 14 or more points. 3-8 ATS vs. bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game. 2-7 ATS versus poor rushing defenses - allowing 130 rushing yards/game or more. 28-19 OVER in all games. 20-12 OVER in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points.
Miami Dolphins: 6-3 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 7 or more passing yards/att. 7-3 ATS versus poor rushing defenses - allowing 130 rushing yards/game or more. 9-5 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.65 yards/play or more. 15-5 OVER when playing against a team with a losing record. 9-4 OVER vs. bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game.
Key Injuries
Washington Commanders: Z. Ertz (TE) Injured - Rest. B. Wagner (LB) Injured - Thumb. L. Tunsil (OT) Injured - Rest. W. Harris (S) Injured - Ankle. F. Luvu (LB) Injured - Shoulder. T. McLaurin (WR) Injured - Quad. C. Rodriguez Jr. (RB) Injured - Shoulder. Q. Martin (S) Injured - Shoulder. T. Burks (WR) Out - Finger. J. Daniels (QB) Out - Left Elbow. A. Kaho (LB) Out - Concussion.
Miami Dolphins: R. Douglas (CB) Injured - Foot. A. Jackson (OG) Injured - Toe. A. Brewer (OG) Injured - Foot. I. Melifonwu (S) Injured - Thumb. D. Eskridge (WR) Injured - Shoulder. A. Davis (S) Injured - Quadricep. J. Hill (TE) Injured - Ankle. C. Robinson (LB) Injured - Concussion. O. Gordon II (RB) Injured - Ankle.
Notable Quotes
"When something's not working, we shift from the question of why isn't it working to what do we need to do to get it right. Joe took the news like the pro he is. We're all consumed by getting it right. That's what we intend to do." - Dan Quinn on taking over the DC duties.
“I think it's pretty obvious from the play they didn't believe that their season was over. That's difficult to do when everyone's talking to you about the season being over.” - Mike McDaniel after his team’s win against the Bills in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Washington Commanders
WR Burks, Treylon
WR Moore, Chris
WR Samuel, Deebo
TE Ertz, Zach
QB Mariota, Marcus
RB Croskey-Merritt, Jacory
Miami Dolphins
WR Waddle, Jaylen
WR Westbrook-Ikhine, Nick
WR Washington, Malik
TE Dulcich, Greg
QB Tagovailoa, Tua
RB Achane, De'Von
FB Ingold, Alec
Statistical Leaders
Washington Commanders
Passing: Jayden Daniels (1,184)
Rushing: Jacory Croskey-Merritt (470)
Receiving: Deebo Samuel (396)
Touchdowns: Deebo Samuel (5)
Miami Dolphins
Passing: Tua Tagovailoa (1,952)
Rushing: De'Von Achane (780)
Receiving: Jaylen Waddle (670)
Touchdowns: De'Von Achane (9)
Coaches:
Washington Commanders: Dan Quinn (2nd season)
Miami Dolphins: Mike McDaniel (4th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
