by Rod Pearson
Saturday, Dec 16, 2023
Game Time: 4:05 pm ET, Sunday, December 17, 2023
Venue: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
Where to Watch: CBS
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Commanders +6.5, Rams -6.5; Over/Under: 50.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Commanders +6.5, Rams -6.5; Over/Under: 50.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Commanders +6.5, Rams -6.5; Over/Under: 50.5 points
Season Record
Washington Commanders: 4-9 (4th place, NFC East)
Los Angeles Rams: 6-7 (2nd place, NFC West)
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Recent Form
Washington Commanders: lost their last game at home against the Miami Dolphins 45-15.
Los Angeles Rams: lost their last game on the road against the Baltimore Ravens in overtime 37-31.
Washington Commanders vs Los Angeles Rams Preview and Analysis
The Commanders are entering this game with a 4-9 record overall and they have a 0-5 record in their divisional games too. They are 1-5 in their home games, 3-4 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against the Miami Dolphins 45-15. Sam Howell was the starting QB and he completed 12/23 passes for 127 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Brian Robinson Jr. led the team in rushing yards with 53. Curtis Samuel led the receivers with 65 receiving yards on 4 receptions. Cody Barton led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 6 assisted tackles while no one on the defense recorded a sack in that one. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that game.
The Rams are entering this game with a 6-7 record overall and they have a 4-1 record in their divisional games too. They are 3-3 in their home games, 3-4 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against the Baltimore Ravens 37-31 in OT. Matthew Stafford was the starting QB and he completed 23/41 passes for 294 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Kyren Williams led the team in rushing yards with 114. Cooper Kupp led the receivers with 115 receiving yards on 8 receptions and 1 TD. John Johnson III led the defense in that game with 7 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while Ernest Jones IV and Byron Young each led the defense in sacks with 1. Ahkello Witherspoon came away with the only interception for them in that game.
Commanders vs Rams Prediction
The current betting odds have the Rams listed as a 6.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Rams haven't looked great this season with their 6-7 record overall but that has them right in the conversation for a Wild Card spot in the NFC. The Rams have looked a lot better in their games lately with their team getting healthier now and they looked really good last week as they almost won in Baltimore. Meanwhile, the Commanders have looked terrible this season with their 4-9 record overall and they have been worse in their home games this season, going 1-5 at home. They are coming out of their bye week here but they really have nothing left to play for, especially since they were blown out in their last 2 games by double digits. The Rams have a lot more motivation here with the Wild Card still in front of them and they are going to have the motivation to win this game as they look to get hot going into the playoffs if they can run the table. The best way to place a bet here is on the Rams to cover the spread in this game.
Commanders Rams Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Sunday, December 17, 2023 (4:05 pm ET start time) is Rams 31 Commanders 17.
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NFL Betting Trends
Washington Commanders: 5-1 ATS as a road underdog. 6-3 ATS after scoring 17 points or less in 2 straight games. 15-7 UNDER off 4 or more consecutive overs. 14-7 UNDER off a home blowout loss by 21 points or more. 44-19 UNDER after 3 or more consecutive losses against the spread.
Los Angeles Rams: 4-10 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less. 20-32 ATS after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. 11-5 UNDER in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5. 12-4 UNDER after playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored.
Key Injuries
Washington Commanders: T. Larsen (C) Prob Sun - Knee. J. Smith-Williams (DE) Out Sun - Hamstring. C. Hodges (TE) I-R - Back. S. Charles (G) Prob Sun - Calf. C. Leno Jr. (OT) Prob Sun - Hip. E. Forbes (CB) Prob Sun - Elbow. B. Robinson (RB) Out Sun - Hamstring. J. Davis (LB) I-R - Shoulder. A. Armah (RB) Ques Sun - Hamstring. D. Harris (LB) Out indefinitely - Quadricep. E. Obada (DE) Out indefinitely - Leg. R. Stromberg (C) Out indefinitely - Knee. J. Reaves (S) I-R - Knee. D. Forrest (S) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. D. Milne (WR) Out indefinitely - Groin. B. Dillon (TE) I-R - Undisclosed. B. Daniels (OL) I-R - Shoulder. C. Brooks (DT) I-R - Undisclosed. D. Bada (DT) I-R - Tricep. A. Rogers (TE) I-R - Achilles.
Los Angeles Rams: A. Donald (DT) Ques Sun - Groin. B. Skowronek (WR) Prob Sun - Ankle. M. Hoecht (LB) Prob Sun - Knee. T. Atwell (WR) Prob Sun - Concussion. R. Havenstein (OL) Ques Sun - Groin. Q. Lake (DB) Prob Sun - Hamstring. T. Higbee (TE) Prob Sun - Neck. A. Ward (LS) Out indefinitely - Neck. H. Long (TE) I-R - Knee. R. Rivers (RB) Late Dec - Knee. D. Shelley (DB) Out indefinitely - Hamstring. S. Bennett (QB) Out indefinitely - Illness.
Notable Quotes
"We can’t do the things we did and expect to win. We didn’t really give ourselves a chance.” - Ron Rivera after his team’s loss against the Dolphins in their last game.
“Give the Ravens credit for finding a way. There were some opportunities, but we made a lot of plays to stay in that game and there will be some opportunities for us as a team.” - Sean McVay after his team’s loss against the Ravens in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Washington Commanders
WR McLaurin, Terry
WR Dotson, Jahan
WR Samuel, Curtis
TE Thomas, Logan
QB Howell, Sam
RB Robinson Jr., Brian
FB Armah, Alex
Los Angeles Rams
WR Robinson, Demarcus
WR Nacua, Puka
WR Kupp, Cooper
TE Higbee, Tyler
QB Stafford, Matthew
RB Williams, Kyren
Statistical Leaders
Washington Commanders
Passing: S. Howell (3466)
Rushing: B. Robinson (664)
Receiving: T. McLaurin (694)
Touchdowns: B. Robinson (8)
Los Angeles Rams
Passing: M. Stafford (3062)
Rushing: K. Williams (801)
Receiving: P. Nacua (1113)
Touchdowns: K. Williams (10)
Coaches:
Washington Commanders: Ron Rivera (4th season)
Los Angeles Rams: Sean McVay (7th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
