by Rod Pearson
Tuesday, Sep 12, 2023
Game Time: 4:25 pm ET, Sunday, September 17, 2023
Venue: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
Where to Watch: CBS
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Commanders +3.5, Broncos -3.5; Over/Under: 39 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Commanders +3.5, Broncos -3.5; Over/Under: 39 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Commanders +3.5, Broncos -3.5; Over/Under: 38.5 points
Season Record
Washington Commanders: 1-0 (2nd place, NFC East)
Denver Broncos: 0-1 (4th place, AFC West)
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Recent Form
Washington Commanders: won their last game at home against the Arizona Cardinals 20-16.
Denver Broncos: lost their last game at home against the Las Vegas Raiders 17-16.
Washington Commanders vs Denver Broncos Preview and Analysis
The Commanders are entering this game with a 1-0 record overall and they have a 0-0 record in their divisional games too. They are 1-0 in their home games, 0-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against the Arizona Cardinals 20-16. Sam Howell was the starting QB and he completed 19/31 passes for 202 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. Brian Robinson Jr. led the team in rushing yards with 59. Curtis Samuel led the receivers with 54 receiving yards on 5 receptions. Kamren Curl led the defense in that game with 8 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Montez Sweat led the defense in sacks with 1.5. No one on the defense came away with an interception in that game.
The Broncos are entering this game with a 0-1 record overall and they have a 0-1 record in their divisional games too. They are 0-1 in their home games, 0-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against the Las Vegas Raiders 17-16. Russell Wilson was the starting QB and he completed 27/34 passes for 177 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Javonte Williams led the team in rushing yards with 177 and 2 TDs. Samaje Perine led the receivers with 37 receiving yards on 4 receptions. Damarri Mathis led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 0 assisted tackles while no one on the defense recorded a sack in that one. Kareem Jackson came away with the only interception for them in that game.
Commanders vs Broncos Prediction
The current betting odds have the Broncos listed as a 3.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Broncos lost their season opener at home to the Raiders in a really close game but now they are at home again and will be looking to bounce back here. The defense played great in that game and now that the offense has a game under their belt with Sean Payton, Wilson will definitely be a lot better in this 2nd home game. The Commanders won their season opener at home but now they are going on the road in the altitude and they barely beat a bad team like the Cardinals at home in their last game. The Commanders offense was stifled by the Cardinals defense and the Broncos have an even better defense to worry about in this game. Sam Howell also made a lot of mistakes in that game and the Broncos will take advantage of those mistakes here by forcing turnovers and putting points on the board. The Broncos also have the better offense with a more experienced QB and they will be looking to bounce back in a big way against a lesser team they can beat here. The best way to place a bet here is on the Broncos to cover the spread in this game.
Commanders Broncos Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Sunday, September 17, 2023 (4:25 pm ET start time) is Broncos 20 Commanders 6.
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NFL Betting Trends
Washington Commanders: 4-8 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. 5-12 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread. 22-12 UNDER in all games. 8-2 UNDER in non-conference games. 12-6 UNDER after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread.
Denver Broncos: 22-14 ATS against NFC East division opponents. 17-9 ATS off a home loss against a division rival. 18-5 UNDER off 1 or more consecutive unders. 24-11 UNDER in all games.
Key Injuries
Washington Commanders: C. Young (DE) Ques Sun - Neck. D. Milne (WR) Out indefinitely - Groin. E. Obada (DE) Out indefinitely - Knee. P. Mathis (DT) Out indefinitely - Calf. K. Smith (TE) I-R - Undisclosed. B. Dillon (TE) I-R - Undisclosed. B. Daniels (OL) I-R - Shoulder. C. Brooks (DT) I-R - Undisclosed. T. Apke (CB) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. D. Bada (DT) I-R - Tricep. A. Rogers (TE) I-R - Achilles.
Denver Broncos: R. Moss (CB) Ques Sun - Abdominal. J. Jeudy (WR) Ques Sun - Hamstring. G. Dulcich (TE) Out indefinitely - Hamstring. C. Sterns (S) out for season - Knee. A. Palczewski (OT) Out indefinitely - Hand. P. Locke (S) Out indefinitely - Leg. B. Browning (LB) Out indefinitely - Knee. K. Williams (CB) Out indefinitely - Ankle. J. Virgil (WR) I-R - Knee. J. Griffith (LB) I-R - Knee. T. Patrick (WR) I-R - Achilles. E. Uwazurike (DL) out for season - Suspension.
Notable Quotes
“Offensively, we could’ve played a lot better. Turnovers, penalties, sacks — just a lot of things I think I can do better. Definitely a lot to clean up on the offensive side of the ball.” - Sam Howell after their win against the Cardinals in their last game.
“I feel great. The only thing that's disappointing is we didn't come up with a win tonight.” - Russell Wilson after their loss against the Raiders in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Washington Commanders
WR McLaurin, Terry
WR Dotson, Jahan
WR Samuel, Curtis
TE THOMAS, LOGAN
QB Howell, Sam
RB Robinson Jr., Brian
Denver Broncos
WR Sutton, Courtland
WR Johnson, Brandon
WR Jeudy, Jerry
TE Trautman, Adam
QB WILSON, RUSSELL
RB Williams, Javonte
FB BURTON, MICHAEL
Statistical Leaders
Washington Commanders
Passing: S. Howell (202)
Rushing: B. Robinson (59)
Receiving: C. Samuel (54)
Touchdowns: B. Robinson (1)
Denver Broncos
Passing: R. Wilson (177)
Rushing: J. Williams (52)
Receiving: S. Perine (37)
Touchdowns: C. Sutton (1)
Coaches:
Washington Commanders: Ron Rivera (4th season)
Denver Broncos: Sean Payton (1st season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
