by Rod Pearson
Tuesday, Nov 21, 2023
Game Time: 4:30 pm ET, Thursday, November 23, 2023
Venue: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
Where to Watch: CBS
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Commanders +11, Cowboys -11; Over/Under: 48.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Commanders +11, Cowboys -11; Over/Under: 48.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Commanders +11, Cowboys -11; Over/Under: 48.5 points
Season Record
Washington Commanders: 4-7 (3rd place, NFC East)
Dallas Cowboys: 7-3 (2nd place, NFC East)
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Recent Form
Washington Commanders: lost their last game at home against the New York Giants 31-19.
Dallas Cowboys: won their last game on the road against the Carolina Panthers 33-10.
Washington Commanders vs Dallas Cowboys Preview and Analysis
The Commanders are entering this game with a 4-7 record overall and they have a 0-4 record in their divisional games too. They are 1-4 in their home games, 3-3 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against the New York Giants 31-19. Sam Howell was the starting QB and he completed 31/45 passes for 255 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 3 interceptions. Brian Robinson Jr. led the team in rushing yards with 73. Brian Robinson Jr. led the receivers with 58 receiving yards on 7 receptions. Jamin Davis and Percy Butler each led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while David Mayo led the defense in sacks with 2. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that game.
The Cowboys are entering this game with a 7-3 record overall and they have a 2-1 record in their divisional games too. They are 4-0 in their home games, 3-3 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against the Carolina Panthers 33-10. Dak Prescott was the starting QB and he completed 25/38 passes for 189 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Tony Pollard led the team in rushing yards with 61 and 1 TD. Brandin Cooks led the receivers with 42 receiving yards on 3 receptions. Markquese Bell led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 4 assisted tackles while Micah Parsons led the defense in sacks with 2.5. Daron Bland came away with the only interception for them in that game.
Commanders vs Cowboys Prediction
The current betting odds have the Cowboys listed as an 11 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Cowboys have looked really good this season with their 7-3 record overall and they have looked even better in their games against weaker opponents with a lot of double digit wins under their belt already. They are 4-0 in their home games this year and they just won another game on the road in Carolina last week by over 20 points. The Commanders haven't looked great at all with their 4-7 record overall and they are coming off a loss against the Giants in their last game. That was an embarrassing loss to the Giants at home last week and this has been an ongoing issue with Ron Rivera all season as he is now on the hot seat. The Cowboys have the home advantage in this game and not only have they looked great in their home games but they have been blowing out teams there all season. The Commanders won't be able to keep pace with the Cowboys on the road while the Cowboys are looking to put on a Thanksgiving show at home. The best way to place a bet here is on the Cowboys to cover the spread in this game.
Commanders Cowboys Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Thursday, November 23, 2023 (4:30 pm ET start time) is Cowboys 45 Commanders 17.
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NFL Betting Trends
Washington Commanders: 5-9 ATS versus division opponents. 16-24 ATS in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points. 5-9 ATS after playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. 24-15 OVER in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points. 4-1 OVER as a road underdog of 7.5 to 14 points.
Dallas Cowboys: 31-16 ATS in all games. 25-10 ATS as a favorite. 15-7 ATS in home games. 13-7 OVER as a home favorite. 7-1 OVER in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points. 9-5 OVER versus division opponents.
Key Injuries
Washington Commanders: E. Obada (DE) Out indefinitely - Leg. C. Barton (LB) Ques Thurs - Ankle. P. Butler (S) Ques Thurs - Back. A. Gibson (RB) Ques Thurs - Toe. A. Armah (RB) Ques Thurs - Hamstring. J. Smith-Williams (DE) Ques Thurs - Hamstring. R. Stromberg (C) Out indefinitely - Knee. S. Charles (G) Out indefinitely - Calf. J. Reaves (S) I-R - Knee. D. Forrest (S) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. D. Milne (WR) Out indefinitely - Groin. B. Dillon (TE) I-R - Undisclosed. B. Daniels (OL) I-R - Shoulder. C. Brooks (DT) I-R - Undisclosed. D. Bada (DT) I-R - Tricep. A. Rogers (TE) I-R - Achilles.
Dallas Cowboys: P. Hendershot (TE) Ques Thurs - Ankle. V. Fehoko Jr. (DE) Out indefinitely - Knee. L. Vander Esch (LB) I-R - Neck. C. Goodwin (CB) I-R - Pectoral. T. Diggs (CB) I-R - Knee. M. Waletzko (OT) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. J. Stephens Jr. (WR) I-R - Knee. D. Durden (WR) I-R - Knee. D. Overshown (LB) I-R - Knee. J. Ball (OT) I-R - Hip.
Notable Quotes
“It is a low point, that’s for sure. Any time you’ve got an opportunity to win a football game and you put the numbers up you did and you get a chance, you’ve got to come through.” - Ron Rivera after his team’s loss against the Giants in their last game.
“We felt confident we’d get a pass rush going." - Mike McCarthy after his team’s win against the Panthers in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Washington Commanders
WR McLaurin, Terry
WR Dotson, Jahan
WR Samuel, Curtis
TE Thomas, Logan
QB Howell, Sam
RB Robinson Jr., Brian
FB Armah, Alex
Dallas Cowboys
WR Gallup, Michael
WR Cooks, Brandin
WR Lamb, CeeDee
TE Ferguson, Jake
QB Prescott, Dak
RB Pollard, Tony
FB Luepke, Hunter
Statistical Leaders
Washington Commanders
Passing: S. Howell (3038)
Rushing: B. Robinson (558)
Receiving: T. McLaurin (644)
Touchdowns: B. Robinson (8)
Dallas Cowboys
Passing: D. Prescott (2604)
Rushing: T. Pollard (590)
Receiving: C. Lamb (1013)
Touchdowns: C. Lamb (6)
Coaches:
Washington Commanders: Ron Rivera (4th season)
Dallas Cowboys: Mike McCarthy (4th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
