Game Time: 1:00 pm ET, Sunday, January 5, 2025
Venue: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
Where to Watch: FOX
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Commanders -4.5, Cowboys +4.5; Over/Under: 44 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Commanders -4.5, Cowboys +4.5; Over/Under: 43.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Commanders -5, Cowboys +5; Over/Under: 44 points
Season Record
Washington Commanders: 11-5 (2nd place, NFC East)
Dallas Cowboys: 7-9 (3rd place, NFC East)
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Washington Commanders: won their last game at home against the Atlanta Falcons 30-24 in overtime.
Dallas Cowboys: lost their last game on the road against the Philadelphia Eagles 41-7.
Washington Commanders vs Dallas Cowboys Preview and Analysis
The Commanders are entering this game with an 11-5 record overall and they have a 3-2 record in their divisional games too. They are 7-2 in their home games, 4-3 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against the Atlanta Falcons 30-24 in OT. Jayden Daniels was the starting QB and he completed 24/36 passes for 227 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Jayden Daniels led the team in rushing yards with 127. Olamide Zaccheaus led the receivers with 85 receiving yards on 8 receptions and 1 TD. Quan Martin led the defense in that game with 7 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while Dorance Armstrong and Dante Fowler Jr. each led the defense in sacks with 1. Quan Martin came away with the only interception for them in that one.
The Cowboys are entering this game with a 7-9 record overall and they have a 3-2 record in their divisional games too. They are 2-6 in their home games, 5-3 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against the Philadelphia Eagles 41-7. Cooper Rush was the starting QB and he completed 15/28 passes for 147 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions. Rico Dowdle led the team in rushing yards with 104. Brandin Cooks led the receivers with 52 receiving yards on 4 receptions. Malik Hooker led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while no one on the defense recorded a sack for them. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
Commanders vs Cowboys Prediction
The current betting odds have the Cowboys listed as a 4.5 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Cowboys haven't looked good in their games this season with their 7-9 record overall which has them in 3rd place of the NFC East and eliminated from playoff contention. They were eliminated a few weeks ago, but they have looked good over the last month as they have still been fighting hard in their games. They are coming off a terrible 41-7 loss in Philadelphia last week, but they will be looking to bounce back at home and end the regular season with a nice win. Meanwhile, the Commanders have looked really good in their games this season with their 11-5 record overall which has them in 2nd place of the NFC East and in a Wild Card spot. They have looked a lot better in their games lately with 4 wins in a row now and they are coming off a nice OT win over the Falcons last week, but that win also clinched their playoff spot so this could be a let down game for them. They are still playing for seeding with the Packers in this game, but it isn't a huge deal if they lose as they have already locked up their playoff spot in Dan Quinn's first season as head coach with a rookie QB. This team wasn't really expected to do anything this year either so they are playing with house money and could use this game as an opportunity to rest players if the game starts to get away from them. The Cowboys also beat them earlier in the season so this isn't going to be an easy game for them to win on the road. The Cowboys have looked a lot better since getting eliminated from playoff contention and McCarthy will want to erase last week's loss with a win in their final game of the regular season. The best way to place a bet here is on the Cowboys to cover the spread in this game.
Commanders Cowboys Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Sunday, January 5, 2025 (1:00 pm ET start time) is Cowboys 28 Commanders 24.
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NFL Betting Trends
Washington Commanders: 9-4 ATS after a win by 6 or less points. 8-3 1H ATS in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points. 8-3 OVER in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points. 6-3 OVER off a home win. 10-3 OVER after a win by 6 or less points.
Dallas Cowboys: 3-9 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. 4-13 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. 6-15 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record. 17-9 OVER in home games. 11-2 OVER in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points. 11-5 OVER versus poor rushing defenses - allowing 4.5 rushing yards/carry or more.
Key Injuries
Washington Commanders: M. Mariota (QB) Questionable - NIR - Personal. D. Fowler (LB) Injured - Groin. Z. Ertz (TE) Injured - NIR - Rest. A. Wylie (OL) Out - Groin. M. Lattimore (CB) Out - Hamstring. J. Allen (DT) Questionable - Pectoral. T. McLaurin (WR) Injured - Ankle. C. Ferrell (DE) Injured - NIR - Rest. D. Brown (WR) Out - Hamstring. J. Magee (LB) Out - Hamstring. T. Owens (SAF) Out - Ankle.
Dallas Cowboys: D. Wilson (SAF) Questionable - Knee. M. Hooker (SAF) Injured - Rest. A. Oruwariye (CB) Out - Foot. C. Edoga (G) Questionable - Toe. J. Lewis (CB) Injured - Elbow. E. Kendricks (MLB) Questionable - Calf. N. Vigil (LB) Questionable - Foot. C. Lamb (WR) Out - Shoulder. J. Tolbert (WR) Questionable - Finger. K. Hall (CB) Out - Hamstring. M. Smith (DT) Injured - Back. A. Richards (OL) Questionable - Ankle. T. Bass (G) Doubtful - Thigh. J. Brooks (WR) Questionable - Knee. M. Waletzko (OT) Injured - Knee. J. Thomas (SAF) Injured - Knee.
Notable Quotes
“The fan base waited a long time for this. I really can’t put into words how much it means to them and how much it means to me to be able to go out there and lead this franchise and this team to opportunities like that.” - Jayden Daniels after their win against the Falcons in their last game.
“We knew it was going to be a different game with the plan this week. To be honest with you, we didn’t really get to some of the things we’d hope to get to.” - Mike McCarthy after his team’s loss against the Eagles in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Washington Commanders
WR McLaurin, Terry
WR Zaccheaus, Olamide
WR Crowder, Jamison
TE Ertz, Zach
QB Daniels, Jayden
RB Robinson Jr., Brian
Dallas Cowboys
WR Tolbert, Jalen
WR Cooks, Brandin
WR Turpin, KaVontae
TE Ferguson, Jake
QB Rush, Cooper
RB Dowdle, Rico
FB Luepke, Hunter
Statistical Leaders
Washington Commanders
Passing: J. Daniels (3530)
Rushing: J. Daniels (864)
Receiving: T. McLaurin (1034)
Touchdowns: T. McLaurin (12)
Dallas Cowboys
Passing: D. Prescott (1978)
Rushing: R. Dowdle (1007)
Receiving: C. Lamb (1194)
Touchdowns: J. Tolbert (7)
Coaches:
Washington Commanders: Dan Quinn (1st season)
Dallas Cowboys: Mike McCarthy (5th season)