Washington Commanders vs Atlanta Falcons Prediction, Preview and Odds - 10/15/2023

Game Time: 1:00 pm ET, Sunday, October 15, 2023

Venue:  Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA

Where to Watch:  CBS

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Commanders +2.5, Falcons -2.5; Over/Under:  42.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Commanders +2.5, Falcons -2.5; Over/Under:  42 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Commanders +2.5, Falcons -2.5; Over/Under:  42 points

Washington Commanders:  2-3 (3rd place, NFC East)

Atlanta Falcons:  3-2 (2nd place, NFC South)

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Washington Commanders:  lost their last game at home against the Chicago Bears 40-20.

Atlanta Falcons:  won their last game at home against the Houston Texans 21-19.

The Commanders are entering this game with a 2-3 record overall and they have a 0-1 record in their divisional games too. They are 1-2 in their home games, 1-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against the Chicago Bears 40-20. Sam Howell was the starting QB and he completed 37/51 passes for 388 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Sam Howell led the team in rushing yards with 19. Logan Thomas led the receivers with 77 receiving yards on 9 receptions and 1 TD. Darrick Forrest led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while Montez Sweat led the defense in sacks with 1.5. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that game.

 

 

 

The Falcons are entering this game with a 3-2 record overall and they have a 1-0 record in their divisional games too. They are 3-0 in their home games, 0-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-1 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against the Houston Texans 21-19. Desmond Ridder was the starting QB and he completed 28/37 passes for 329 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. Bijan Robinson led the team in rushing yards with 46. Kyle Pitts led the receivers with 87 receiving yards on 7 receptions. Jeff Okudah led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while no one on the defense recorded a sack in that one. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that game.

The current betting odds have the Commanders listed as a 2.5 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Commanders just lost on Thursday night in prime time to the Bears who have been terrible this season. The Commanders gave the Bears their 1st win of the season but now they are going to be looking to bounce back here and they haven't been bad in their road games this year. They also played last Thursday so they have had extra time to prepare for this game and the Falcons haven't been that great either. The Falcons are 3-2 this season with an undefeated 3-0 record in their home games but despite winning all 3 of their home games, only 1 of their wins was by 3 points or more. The Commanders don't have the best defense so the Falcons are going to move the ball here but the Commanders have a lot more talent on offense and they have shown they can score quickly when needed. The Commanders have also played in some really close games themselves so there is a very good chance that this could end up being a whacky game where the Falcons win at home once again but only by 1 or 2 points and don't cover. The Falcons have been inconsistent on offense though so there is also a good chance that the Commanders can win this game outright. The best way to place a bet here is on the Commanders to cover the spread in this game. 

Commanders Falcons Prediction:  Our NFL Pick for Sunday, October 15, 2023 (1:00 pm ET start time) is Commanders 27 Falcons 24.

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Washington Commanders: 6-3 ATS after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored. 5-2 ATS after 3 or more consecutive losses. 7-0 UNDER after 3 or more consecutive losses. 8-2 UNDER off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a home favorite. 23-15 UNDER in all games.

Atlanta Falcons: 21-37 ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or less. 6-13 ATS in home games. 3-8 ATS in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points. 24-15 UNDER in all games. 8-3 UNDER off a non-conference game. 8-2 UNDER after a win by 6 or less points.

Washington Commanders:  C. Rodriguez Jr. (RB) day-to-day - Illness. C. Holmes (CB) day-to-day - Hamstring. J. Reaves (S) day-to-day - Knee. D. Milne (WR) Out indefinitely - Groin. E. Obada (DE) Out indefinitely - Knee. P. Mathis (DT) Out indefinitely - Calf. K. Smith (TE) I-R - Undisclosed. B. Dillon (TE) I-R - Undisclosed. B. Daniels (OL) I-R - Shoulder. C. Brooks (DT) I-R - Undisclosed. T. Apke (CB) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. D. Bada (DT) I-R - Tricep. A. Rogers (TE) I-R - Achilles.

Atlanta Falcons:  J. Ali (WR) Out indefinitely - Ankle. T. Andersen (LB) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. M. Hennessy (OL) I-R - Knee. A. Ogundeji (LB) I-R - Ankle. F. Franks (TE) I-R - Lower Body. E. Greenidge (OL) I-R - Leg. I. Enechukwu (DL) I-R - Undisclosed. A. Williams (RB) I-R - Knee.

“It starts at the top. That’s on me.” - Ron Rivera after his team’s loss against the Bears in their last game. 

“Now he’s got evidence, a great fourth-quarter comeback.” - Arthur Smith on Desmond Ridder after his team’s win against the Texans in their last game.

WR McLaurin, Terry 

WR Dotson, Jahan 

WR Samuel, Curtis 

TE THOMAS, LOGAN 

QB Howell, Sam 

RB Robinson Jr., Brian

WR London, Drake 

WR Hollins, Mack 

TE Pitts, Kyle

TE Smith, Jonnu 

QB Ridder, Desmond 

RB Robinson, Bijan 

FB SMITH, KEITH

Passing: S. Howell (1349)

Rushing: B. Robinson (271)

Receiving: T. McLaurin (261)

Touchdowns: B. Robinson (4)

Passing: D. Ridder (1073)

Rushing: B. Robinson (364)

Receiving: J. Smith (246)

Touchdowns: T. Allgeier (2)

Coaches:

Washington Commanders: Ron Rivera (4th season)

Atlanta Falcons: Arthur Smith (3rd season)