by Chuck Sommers
Wednesday, Jan 11, 2023
Time: 7 p.m. ET
Venue: Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA
Where to watch: NBCSP, NBCSWA+
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Capitals -170, Flyers +145; O/U 6
FanDuel: Capitals -184, Flyers +152; O/U 6
BetMGM: Capitals -165, Flyers +140; O/U 6
Caesars: Capitals -169, Flyers +143; O/U 6
Season record
Capitals: 23-14-6
Flyers: 16-18-7
We’ve hit the halfway mark in the NHL season. Yes, you read that right. We’re really hit that halfway mark that quickly. If you blinked, you probably missed a lot of good things happen in the hockey world. And with football about to be out of the way, look for our champion handicappers to get back on the rink. Oskeim Sports is on a 13-5-0 run in the NHL over the last 30 days, as is Will Rogers. Sean Murphy has also cashed in with a 16-10-0 run in the last month. Make sure you’re following our champion handicappers at bigal.com to get on this winning action!
Capitals - Flyers preview, prediction and analysis
Recent results
Capitals: won 1-0 vs. Blue Jackets
Flyers: won 4-0 at Sabres
You’re not going to find many times seeing the Philadelphia Flyers as low as +145 against a more dangerous team than the Washington Capitals, but this is going to be a weird situation for it to happen.
The two teams meet in Philadelphia on Wednesday with the suddenly surging Flyers coming in having won five of their last six, the latest being a 4-0 shocking win over the red-hot Buffalo Sabres. The Flyers were +194 in that one (ironically not their highest cover, they had a +195 against the Los Angeles Kings on Dec. 31).
What’s even more impressive with the Flyers is how they’ve been able to get their production at 5-on-5. The power play has gone 3 for 16 during this stretch, just under 20 percent, and has been able to shut down teams with hot goaltending from Carter Hart and 23-year-old Samuel Ersson. The latter has won his last four starts with a .947 save percentage while Hart was nursing an injury. Ersson recorded his first shutout in that win over Buffalo.
"I got three games there in a row, so it's nice. I kind of got a feel of things and got into a little flow," he said. "Now taking a couple of games rest here, so it's a little bit different, but it feels good. You always want to help the team win games and contribute."
The problem with the Flyers is John Tortorella is going to run this group into the ground at some point. There’s a run brewing where Philadelphia feels good, only to completely shut down in a few more games. But there is a likelihood they’re going to score: The Flyers have seen the over cash in four straight home games and five of their last six against conference opponents. If their goaltending is that good, they won’t be that stretched for offense.
But the Caps are also on a fun run of their own, going 7-1-2 in their last 10 with the latest a 1-0 win at home against Columbus. While the score wasn’t impressive, what was welcoming for the surging Caps was the season debuts of Nicklas Backstrom and Tom Wilson.
"I thought it was great to have them back out there," Capitals coach Peter Laviolette said. "That is a lot, jumping into that game. I thought they did fine. Every day from today as they move forward, they will get more confident and just feel better about it. I'm sure they are both glad to have it behind them and in the rearview mirror."
The Caps were winning games, and Alex Ovechkin was scoring goals, without those two in the lineup. Getting them back is going to help them further as they continue to push to contention in the Eastern Conference. Get strong goaltending from Darcy Kuemper like they have in this run, things are going to look positive.
Prediction
The Capitals have won six of the last seven meetings in Philadelphia and have won the last four of five overall. Given how Washington has played over the last little bit, I like that way it’s trending. Capitals 4, Flyers 2
Betting trends
Capitals are 112-97 on the road when playing with two days of rest since 1996.
Flyers are 2-18 when playing their second game in three days the last 2 seasons.
Flyers are 3-17 after allowing one goal or less in the last game the last 2 seasons.
Projected lines
Capitals:
Alex Ovechkin -- Nicklas Backstrom -- Tom Wilson
Dylan Strome -- Evgeny Kuznetsov -- T.J. Oshie
Sonny Milano -- Lars Eller -- Marcus Johansson
Conor Sheary -- Nic Dowd -- Garnet Hathaway
Erik Gustafsson -- Trevor van Riemsdyk
Dmitry Orlov -- Nick Jensen
Martin Fehervary -- Matt Irwin
Darcy Kuemper
Flyers:
James van Riemsdyk -- Morgan Frost -- Owen Tippett
Joel Farabee -- Noah Cates -- Travis Konecny
Kevin Hayes -- Scott Laughton -- Wade Allison
Nicolas Deslauriers -- Patrick Brown -- Zack MacEwen
Ivan Provorov -- Cam York
Travis Sanheim -- Tony DeAngelo
Nick Seeler -- Rasmus Ristolainen
Carter Hart
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
