Washington Capitals vs Montreal Canadiens Prediction, Preview and Odds - 04/27/2025

Game Time: 6:30 pm ET, Sunday, April 27, 2025

Venue:  Centre Bell, Montréal, QC

Where to Watch:  TBS, MAX, truTV

DraftKings:  Moneyline:  Capitals -118, Canadiens -102; Over/Under:  6.5 goals

Bet365:  Moneyline:  Capitals -115, Canadiens -105; Over/Under:  6 goals

BetMGM:  Moneyline:  Capitals -115, Canadiens -105; Over/Under:  6 goals

Washington Capitals:  51-22-9 (1st place, Metropolitan Division)

Montreal Canadiens:  40-31-11 (5th place, Atlantic Division)

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Washington Capitals:  5-5-0 last 10

Montreal Canadiens:  5-2-3 last 10

The Capitals are entering the playoffs with 111 points, a 51-22-9 record overall, and they were 25-13-3 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a loss against the Montreal Canadiens in their last game, losing that one on the road 6-3. Jakob Chychrun, Connor McMichael, and Alexander Ovechkin each scored 1 goal for them in that one. Anthony Beauvillier, Lars Eller, Andrew Mangiapane, Matt Roy, Rasmus Sandin, and Dylan Strome each led the team in assists with 1 while Jakob Chychrun led the team in shots on net in that game with 3. Logan Thompson was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 5 goals on 35 shots with 30 saves and a .857 sv percentage before getting replaced by Charlie Lindgren who allowed 1 goal on the 5 shots he faced. Their offense has scored 288 goals this season averaging 3.5 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 232 goals against them allowing 2.8 goals per game.

The Canadiens are entering the playoffs with 91 points, a 40-31-11 record overall, and they were 23-12-6 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a win against the Washington Capitals in their last game, winning that one at home 6-3. Cole Caufield, Alex Newhook, Alexandre Carrier, Christian Dvorak, Juraj Slafkovský, and Nick Suzuki each scored 1 goal for them in that one. Cole Caufield, Alex Newhook, Joel Armia, Jake Evans, Brendan Gallagher, Lane Hutson, Mike Matheson, and David Savard each led the team in assists with 1 while Cole Caufield led the team in shots on net in that game with 11. Sam Montembeault was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 2 goals on 13 shots with 11 saves and a .846 save percentage before getting replaced by Jakub Dobeš who gave up 1 goal on the 8 shots he faced. Their offense has scored 245 goals this season averaging 3 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 265 goals against them allowing 3.2 goals per game.

The current betting odds have the Canadiens listed as a slight underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 4 of a 7 game series between the 1st seeded Capitals from the Metropolitan Division and the 2nd Wild Card seeded Canadiens from the Atlantic Division for the 1st round of the NHL playoffs. The Capitals are leading this series 2-1 after the Canadiens won game 3 at home. The Canadiens made it a 2-1 series with a 6-3 win over the Caps in the 3rd game of this series and they are back in the series now. They were down 2-0 after losing the first 2 games on the road, but they didn't look bad in those games. They lost the first game of this series in OT and lost the 2nd game 3-1, but the Capitals scored a very late empty netter so that game was a much tighter 2-1 game where the Canadiens were right in it. The Canadiens have also looked a lot better on home ice though, going 23-12-6 in their home games this year, and they had an explosion of offense in that 6-3 win. That win is going to give them a lot of momentum with the way they were putting pucks in the net, and that was a game that they were always leading in too. The Capitals have been the best team in the East all season and they haven't been a bad road team either, but they weren't playing well coming into the playoffs and a lot of those bad games they played were in their road games. The Canadiens have some momentum on their side and they can take advantage of the Capitals who haven't really been dominant in this series. The best way to place a bet here is on the Canadiens to win this game. 

Capitals Canadiens Prediction:  Our NHL Pick for Sunday, April 27, 2025 (6:30 pm ET start time) is Canadiens 5 Capitals 4.

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Washington Capitals: 20-27 (-12.1 units) on the moneyline off a road blowout loss by 3 goals or more. 63-49 (-10.1 units) on the moneyline when playing against a team with a losing record. 90-96 (-19.6 units) on the moneyline against poor power play killing teams - opp score on over 17.5% of chances. 38-23 OVER at home against poor defensive teams - 29 shots on goal or more, convert 17% pp or more. 

Montreal Canadiens: 57-67 (+7.9 units) on the moneyline in home games. 22-34 (+10.3 units) on the moneyline when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%). 80-109 (+7.8 units) on the moneyline against poor power play killing teams - opp score on over 17.5% of chances. 15-6 OVER off a home blowout win by 3 goals or more.

Washington Capitals:  L. Thompson (G) Day To Day - Lower body. M. Fehervary (D) Out For Season - Meniscus. A. Protas (C) Day To Day - Foot. S. Milano (LW) Out - Upper-body. N. Backstrom (C) Out For Season - Hip. T. Oshie (RW) Out For Season - Back.

Montreal Canadiens:  P. Laine (LW) Day To Day - Upper Body. S. Montembeault (G) Day To Day - Lower-body. K. Dach (C) Out For Season - Lower Body.

“I haven’t talked to the trainers yet, so we’ll get an update and go from there.” - Spencer Carbery on the injury to Logan Thompson after his team’s loss against the Canadiens in game 3 of this series on Friday.

“To their credit, it’s a hard building to play in and they kept coming back, and we’re going to expect a hungry team on Sunday.” - Lane Hutson after their win against the Capitals in game 3 of this series on Friday.

LW Alex Ovechkin

C Dylan Strome

RW Anthony Beauvillier

LD Jakob Chychrun

RD John Carlson

G Logan Thompson

LW Cole Caufield

C Nick Suzuki

RW Juraj Slafkovský

LD Mike Matheson

RD Alexandre Carrier

G Sam Montembeault

Points: D. Strome (82)

Goals: A. Ovechkin (44)

Assists: D. Strome (53)

GAA: L. Thompson (2.49)

Points: N. Suzuki (89)

Goals: C. Caufield (37)

Assists: L. Hutson (60)

GAA: J. Dobes (2.74)

Coaches:

Washington Capitals: Spencer Carbery (2nd season)

Montreal Canadiens: Martin St. Louis (3rd season)