Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs North Carolina Tar Heels Prediction Spread and Trends to Watch - 11/06/2021

by James Q

Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs North Carolina Tar Heels Prediction Spread and Trends to Watch - 11/06/2021

 
Game Time: 12:01 ET, Saturday, November 6th, 2021
Venue: Kenan Memorial Stadium, Chapel Hill, NC 
Where to Watch: ABC
 

Opening MLB Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings Sportsbook:  Spread: N Carolina -2.5; Over/Under: 77 points
Circa:  Spread: North Carolina -2.5; Over/Under:  76.5 points
VegasInsider:  Spread:  North Carolina -2.5; Over/Under: 76.5 points
 

Season Record

Wake Forest: 5-0 conf, 8-0 overall, 1st place ACC, #10 in the nation
UNC: 3-3 conf, 4-4 overall

A matchup of conference opponents.  A battle of offense.  The Nov schedule brings a big game into Kenan Stadium.  The 76.5 to 77 point spread is signaling that there is hardly any defense expected to be played.  No Wake Forest Demon Deacons football game has ended in a loss this season… yet they are 2-3 point underdogs… Tar Heel fans will get the best seats in all UNC home games… but isn’t it a head scratcher that a .500 team is favored over an undefeated team?... Home field advantage isn’t enough.  Time to check the defensive numbers and the injury report…. And then you should still put a yard of USD on Wake Forest.
 
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Wake Forest vs UNC Preview and Analysis

RECENT FORM

Wake Forest has won 8 games in a row. They have beaten five of their 8 opponents by 20+ points.  Wake Forest players are used to resting starters early and working out the second units… and still FanDuel Sportsbook doesn’t think they have the Best Odds in a matchup with UNC.

UNC is favored because they have played a harder schedule.  They have a potent offense. They have won four and lost four games.  Sure they have lost to Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Florida State, and #8 Notre Dame… but didn’t Wake Forest beat Florida State?  Still UNC is a good team and we will have to look closely at the numbers to figure out if this spread makes any sense to you.

Offensive Analysis

Wake Forest has the 9th ranked offense in the FBS.  They have scored 42 touchdowns on 495.4 yards per game over 8 games of play.  They are 8th in the FBS in Passing yards per completion 260 completions at 15.1 yards per.  They aren’t perfectly balanced though, they drop to the 46th ranked offense in rushing yards with 183.9 yards per game on 4.58 yards per carry.  Still, 46th is top third in the FBS… and who has time to run the ball when you are pulling down 15 yards per completion in the passing game?

UNC is the 12th ranked offense in the FBS.  They have scored 37 touchdowns on 482.8 yards per game.  They are 12th in passing yards per attempt with 14.49 yards per attempt, which signals an air raid game on both sides.  North Carolina scores slightly better than Wake in the rushing game with 29th in the FBS on 202 yards per game.  The line in this game has been set where it is from the offensive perspective as UNC is the best offense Wake has faced.

Defensive Analysis

Wake Forest is ranked 100th in the FBS on defense.  They give up 421.5 yards per game and 25 touchdowns so far.  They have been winning shootouts all year.  They have bombed away to an unbeaten 8-0 record.  The one quality defensive stat they have is being tied for 38th in the FBS in tackles for loss… this does signal that they get decent penetration.  In a wild, high scoring, passing game… penetration will be needed to win a close game at the end.

UNC has the 78th ranked defense in the FBS.  They have given up 30 touchdowns on 396.6 yards per game.  They have fared better on D and played a slightly stronger schedule… but still 4 losses must mean this below average D wears out. 

Wake Forest vs UNC Prediction

Our prediction for Saturday, November 1st, is…  WF 42 - UNC 35
Wake Forest and an OVER.  The numbers aren’t all that different to merit UNC will all of a sudden start winning games against the last undefeated team in the conference.  Plus look at the Florida State game.  Wake beat FSU by 21.  UNC lost to FSU by 10.  Take Wake and you get 2.5 pts to play with.

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NCAAF Betting Trends

Wake Forest is 4-2 ATS after 2 or more consecutive SU wins.
Wake Forest is 2-0 ATS in games where the total is set at 70 pts or more over the last 3 seasons.
UNC is 2-4 ATS against Conference opponents this season.
UNC is 6-13 as a home favorite of 3 pts or less since 1993.



Key Injuries

Wake: DB Evan Slocun (undisclosed) Quest ** DB Chelan Garnes (leg) Quest ** DB Tyriq Hardimon (undisclosed) Quest
UNC: WR Tylee Craft (lower body) Quest ** DB Strom Duck (lower body) Quest ** DL Kristian Varner (undisclosed) Quest ** RB British Brooks (undisclosed) Quest ** RB Caleb Hood (upper body) Quest ** RB Josh Henderson (quit the team to transfer) (oh it's personal)


Starting Lineups

WF: QB Sam Hartman, RB Christian Beal-Smith, TE Brandon Chapman, WR Jaquarii Roberson, WR Taylor Morin, LT Zach Tom, LG Sean Maginn, OC Michael Jurgens, RG Loic Nya Ngassam, RT DeVonte Gordon

UNC: QB Sam Howell, RB Ty Chandler, TE Garrett Wilson, WR Justin Olson, WR Antoine Green, WR Josh Downs, LT Asim Richards, LG Joshua Ezeudu, OC Brian Anderson, RG Marcus McKethan, RT Jordan Tucker

Coaches

WF: Dave Clawson
UNC: Mack Brown… Isn’t this the last season for Mack especially if they don’t beat Wake?

Weather Forecast

Partly Cloudy. 54* Humidity 57%. Wind 10 mph. A beautiful, cool, fall day. Perfect football weather unless it drizzles from a 20% chance of precipitation.



James Q

About the Author:

James Q. has been involved with sports and gambling his entire life. A former division 1 scholarship basketball player, James understands sports (and especially basketball) inside-and-out. Following his basketball playing days, James parlayed his gambling skills into a semi-pro poker career. James resides in Los Angeles, and especially loves the Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Rams, and Los Angeles Dodgers. And when he isn't betting on sports (and writing about it), James can be found performing stand-up comedy on the Sunset Strip.

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