by Chuck Sommers
Wednesday, Dec 21, 2022Gasparilla Bowl
Time: 9:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
Where to watch: ESPN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Wake Forest -2; Wake Forest -125, Missouri +105; O/U 59
FanDuel: Wake Forest -1.5; Wake Forest -125, Missouri +105; O/U 58.5
BetMGM: Wake Forest -2; Wake Forest -125, Missouri +105; O/U 58.5
Caesars: Wake Forest -2; Wake Forest -125, Missouri +105; O/U 58.5
Season record
Wake Forest: 7-5
Missouri: 6-6
Bowl season is here! There are 42 games that are going to be determining how this season ends. We appreciate you for hanging with us during this college football season, and you know it’s not over yet. We’re going to keep on rolling and giving your our best picks over the course of the next month. All the way up until the College Football Playoff, which is going to have some incredible games. Do you have the right idea when you head to the books for these important games? Our champion handicappers surely have you covered. Will Rogers is running an impressive 24-11-0 in the last month. Al McMordie has also been cashing in heavily with a 40-29-1 mark in college football over the last 30 days. Our guys here have you ready to go for what should be an exciting week. Be tuned to bigal.com for everything!
Wake Forest - Missouri preview, analysis and prediction
Wake Forest analysis
This is absolutely not the Wake Forest Demon Deacons that shocked the college football world last year. This is a team that somehow found a way into a bowl game after a late-season collapse of epic proportions. This team was 6-1 heading into an Oct. 29 game against Louisville with a star quarterback healthy and everything going their way.
Then everything fell apart. We can’t really pinpoint how, nor does it make sense to try and figure it out, but Wake Forest went 1-4 down the stretch both outright and against the spread. Whatever got into Sam Hartman and this offense, it completely fell apart down the stretch the likes of which we’ve never seen from a championship contender.
Wake Forest was favored in all of its final five games and failed to cover in all but one of them. That one they did cover? It was the 45-35 win against Syracuse in which Wake Forest was favored by 9.5. Do the math. That’s a horrible way to go.
Hartman has thrown 14 touchdowns to eight interceptions in his last five starts. He’s eclipsed 300 yards in four of those and completed 60 percent of his passes in three of them. Again, this is a run that doesn’t make sense. We know this Wake Forest defense is going to give up a lot of big plays.
Missouri analysis
The Missouri Tigers needed to win their last two games in order to make a bowl game. Winning against New Mexico State was one thing. Doing it against Arkansas as 3-point underdogs was another situation entirely. But Mizzou is back in postseason contention and it’s already a weird situation to consider that a reality.
But the Tigers are not the team of old that had dynamic playmakers everywhere. This is a team that is considered a middle-of-the-pack SEC team. That’s not necessarily a good thing, all things considered. Brady Cook is an average quarterback at best, they don’t have anyone dangerous to take the pressure off with the running game, and Dominic Lovett is really the only true threat they have at receiver.
Missouri is a true 6-6 team. They average 25 points per game and give up 25. The offense puts up 371 yards per game and still gives up 337. There’s nothing about this team that stands out and says they are a legit threat to win this game.
If there was ever a time for Wake Forest to take some frustration out on a team, this would be the time.
Prediction
This would be the most ultimate disappointing result that Wake Forest could have if it doesn’t come through. The fact they’re only favored by 1 point is truly a problem that can’t be fixed with normal comprehension. Wake Forest by 10
Betting trends
Wake Forest is 38-22 ATS on the road after losing 2 of 3 since 1992.
Wake Forest is 16-6 ATS on the road after failling to cover in 4 or 5 of the last 6 since 1992.
Missouri is 4-15 ATS in December games since 1992.
Statistical leaders
Wake Forest:
Passing: Sam Hartman – 3,421 yards, 35 TD, 11 INT
Rushing: Justice Ellison – 643 yards, 5 TD
Receiving: A.T. Perry – 980 yards, 11 TD
Missouri:
Passing: Brady Cook – 2,509 yards, 13 TD, 7 INT
Rushing: Cody Schrader – 691 yards, 8 TD
Receiving: Dominic Lovett – 846 yards, 3 TD
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
