Virginia Cavaliers vs Missouri Tigers Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 12/27/2025

Game Time: 7:30 pm ET, Saturday, December 27, 2025

Venue:  EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL 

Where to Watch:  ABC

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  UVA +4, Mizzou -4; Over/Under:  44.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  UVA +4, Mizzou -4; Over/Under:  45 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  UVA +4.5, Mizzou -4.5; Over/Under:  44.5 points

Virginia Cavaliers:  10-3 (7-1) (2nd place, ACC)

Missouri Tigers:  8-4 (4-4) (8th place, SEC)

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Virginia Cavaliers:  lost their last game at a neutral site against the Duke Blue Devils 27-20 in overtime. 

Missouri Tigers:  won their last game on the road against the Arkansas Razorbacks 31-17.

Virginia is entering this game with a 10-3 record overall and they have a 7-1 record in their conference games too. They are 6-1 in their home games, 4-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-1 in their neutral site games this season, and they will be at a neutral site for this game. They lost their last game against Duke 27-20 in OT. Chandler Morris was the starting QB and he completed 21/40 passes for 216 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. Harrison Waylee led the team in rushing yards with 66. Cameron Ross led the receivers with 59 receiving yards on 5 receptions. James Jackson led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Daniel Rickert led the defense in sacks with 1. Corey Costner came away with the only interception for them in that one.

 

 

 

Missouri is entering this game with an 8-4 record overall and they have a 4-4 record in their conference games too. They are 6-2 in their home games, 2-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at a neutral site for this game. They won their last game against Arkansas 31-17. Beau Pribula was the starting QB and he completed 4/7 passes for 25 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Ahmad Hardy led the team in rushing yards with 157 and 1 TD. Brett Norfleet led the receivers with 13 receiving yards on 2 receptions. Josiah Trotter led the defense in that game with 7 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while Chris McClellan led the defense in sacks with 2. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.

The current betting odds have Virginia listed as a 4 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Virginia has looked great in their games this season with their 10-3 record overall and their 7-1 conference record which had them right at the top of the ACC. They are 0-1 in their neutral site games though. Meanwhile, Missouri has looked good in their games this season with their 8-4 record overall, but their 4-4 conference record had them right in the middle of the SEC. They haven't played in any neutral site games this year so this will be their first, playing in the Gator Bowl. Mizzou is off a 31-17 win over Arkansas in their last one and they had a good year overall, but they struggled against some of the better opponents they had to face in the SEC. They had a great offense with one of the best running backs in the nation, but their defense did give up a ton of points in their games. They also had an injury to their starting QB midway through the season which really derailed their hopes at making some noise in the conference. Virginia had a great year in the ACC and were the best team in the conference during the regular season, but they blew a chance to go to the CFP this year. The ACC was a mess this season so Virginia ended up playing Duke in the ACC Championship and all they had to do was beat a Duke team with 5 losses to go to the CFP, but they lost to Duke in the ACC Championship 27-20. Virginia's season ended in disappointment, but they still had a great year overall and will be looking to finish the season on a positive note. Their defense wasn't great this year which could be an issue against this Missouri offense, but Missouri's defense hasn't been any better and Virginia has the talent to put up points and stay in this game. The best way to place a bet here is on Virginia to cover the spread in this game. 

Virginia Missouri Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, December 27, 2025 (7:30 pm ET start time) is Virginia 38 Missouri 34.

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Virginia Cavaliers: 22-13 ATS in all lined games. 8-1 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. 13-3 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record. 11-5 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record. 9-5 UNDER vs. good offensive  teams - scoring 31 or more points/game.

Missouri Tigers: 1-6 1H ATS after a bye week. 5-9 1H ATS off a win against a conference rival. 6-12 1H ATS when playing against a team with a winning record. 8-4 UNDER after playing their last game on the road. 5-1 UNDER off a road win.

Virginia Cavaliers:  T. Harris (WR) Questionable - Knee. T. Ladd (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. T. Wyatt (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. M. Thomas (OG) Doubtful - Foot. A. Jones (S) Questionable - Undisclosed. N. Vaughn (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. G. Brosterhous (QB) Doubtful - Foot. D. Twitty (TE) Doubtful - Leg. M. Boley (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Thomas (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. T. Simmons (DL) Out - Undisclosed. A. Greene Jr. (WR) Out - Undisclosed. K. Robinson (LB) Out - Knee. X. Brown (RB) Out - Knee. J. Morris (CB) Out - Knee. M. Mills (OG) Out - Knee.

Missouri Tigers:  Z. Young (DL) Questionable - Personal. E. Williams (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. D. Fowlkes (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. S. Horn (QB) Out - Leg. B. Craig (K) Out - Undisclosed.

“We’re grateful for another opportunity to finish what has been such a special season for this program, the players, staff, alumni, donors and UVA fans. We want to send off our seniors, who have given everything to this program, the right way and that will be our focus going into this final game.” - Tony Elliott on his team playing in the Gator Bowl.

"We are excited to have the opportunity to be part of the TaxSlayer Gator Bowl and look forward to playing an outstanding Virginia team on ABC. Jacksonville is the perfect bowl game for our team to finish the season against one of the best teams in the Atlantic Coast Conference. I want to challenge our fans and alumni to come and support us in Florida as we try to become the first team in Mizzou history to win nine games in three straight seasons. This is a special team that has worked very hard to put themselves in this position and we look forward to ending the season on a high note." - Eli Drinkwitz on his team playing in the Gator Bowl.

WR Edrine, Jahmal

WR Harris, Trell

WR Ross, Cam

TE Ennis, Sage

QB Morris, Chandler

RB Taylor, J'Mari

WR Johnson, Marquis

WR Manning, Joshua

WR Coleman Jr., Kevin

TE Norfleet, Brett

QB Zollers, Matt

RB Hardy, Ahmad

Passing: Chandler Morris (2,802)

Rushing: J'Mari Taylor (1,062)

Receiving: Trell Harris (847)

Touchdowns: J'Mari Taylor (15)

Passing: Beau Pribula (1,941)

Rushing: Ahmad Hardy (1,560)

Receiving: Kevin Coleman Jr. (715)

Touchdowns: Ahmad Hardy (16)

Coaches:

Virginia Cavaliers: Tony Elliott (4th season)

Missouri Tigers: Eli Drinkwitz (6th season)