by Rod Pearson
Monday, Nov 06, 2023
Game Time: 7:30 pm ET, Thursday, November 9, 2023
Venue: L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium, Louisville, KY
Where to Watch: ESPN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: UVA +20.5, Louisville -20.5; Over/Under: 51 points
Bet365: Point Spread: UVA +19.5, Louisville -19.5; Over/Under: 52 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: UVA +20.5, Louisville -20.5; Over/Under: 51.5 points
Season Record
Virginia Cavaliers: 2-7 (1-4) (11th place, ACC)
Louisville Cardinals: 8-1 (5-1) (2nd place, ACC)
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Recent Form
Virginia Cavaliers: lost their last game at home against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 45-17.
Louisville Cardinals: won their last game at home against the Virginia Tech Hokies 34-3.
Virginia Cavaliers vs Louisville Cardinals Preview and Analysis
Virginia is entering this game with a 2-7 record overall and they have a 1-4 record in their conference games too. They are 1-3 in their home games, 1-3 in their road games, and they are also 0-1 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against Georgia Tech 45-17. Tony Muskett was the starting QB and he completed 1/2 passes for 11 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 1 interception before getting replaced by Anthony Colandrea who completed 21/37 passes for 200 yards, 2 TDs, and 1 INT. Anthony Colandrea led the team in rushing yards with 33. Malik Washington led the receivers with 109 receiving yards on 11 receptions. Coen King led the defense in that game with 8 solo tackles and 0 assisted tackles while Ben Smiley III led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that game.
Louisville is entering this game with an 8-1 record overall and they have a 5-1 record in their conference games too. They are 5-0 in their home games, 1-1 in their road games, and they are also 2-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against Virginia Tech 34-3. Jack Plummer was the starting QB and he completed 11/12 passes for 141 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. Isaac Guerendo led the team in rushing yards with 146 and 3 TDs. Jadon Thompson led the receivers with 49 receiving yards on 2 receptions and 1 TD. Storm Duck led the defense in that game with 4 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while Ramon Puryear, Mason Reiger, and Benjamin Perry each led the defense in sacks with 1. TJ Quinn came away with the only interception for them in that game.
Virginia vs Louisville Prediction
The current betting odds have Louisville listed as a 20.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Louisville has looked really good this season with their 8-1 record overall and their 5-1 conference record. Their only loss this season came against Pitt but they are 5-0 in their home games this year and they have complete control of their fate for the ACC Championship right now. Meanwhile, Virginia has been the complete opposite this year with their 2-7 record overall and their 1-4 conference record. They are only 1-3 in their road games this season and they have been getting blown out in a lot of their games too. They are also dealing with an injury to their starting QB but even with Muskett in their games they have struggled to put up points all season. Virginia doesn't really have the offense to compete with Louisville this season and their defense won't be able to stop this red hot Louisville offense either. The best way to place a bet here is on Louisville to cover the spread in this game.
Virginia Louisville Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Thursday, November 9, 2023 (7:30 pm ET start time) is Louisville 45 Virginia 13.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Virginia Cavaliers: 3-7 ATS off 1 or more straight overs. 7-13 ATS after allowing 300 or more rushing yards last game. 22-13 UNDER off an upset loss as a favorite. 45-24 UNDER after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers.
Louisville Cardinals: 10-3 ATS as a home favorite. 13-5 ATS in home games. 29-15 ATS in a home game where the total is between 49.5 and 56. 10-3 UNDER as a home favorite. 8-3 UNDER off 2 consecutive home wins by 14 points or more.
Key Injuries
Virginia Cavaliers: M. Hollins (RB) Out indefinitely - Neck. T. Muskett (QB) Ques Thurs - Foot. S. Wood Jr. (TE) Ques Thurs - Undisclosed. X. Brown (RB) Mid Nov - Arm. A. Clary (S) Mid Nov - Ankle. L. Long (LB) Out indefinitely - Foot. O. Agunloye (DT) out for season - Knee.
Louisville Cardinals: J. Brownlee Jr. (DB) Ques Thurs - Undisclosed. J. Thrash (WR) Ques Thurs - Undisclosed. R. Brown (OL) out for season - Undisclosed. M. Griffin (DB) out for season - Leg.
Notable Quotes
“For a little while, we were going back and forth and it was competitive football. And then we started making some critical mistakes and they found some answers and made some adjustments that we could not adjust back to.” - Tony Elliott after his team’s loss against GA Tech in their last game.
“You don’t want to tell the other team too much what’s going on because there was some pivotal positions. So we tried to get them ready as fast as we could which really just meant rehabbing them and they didn’t really practice." - Jeff Brohm after his team’s win against VA Tech in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Virginia Cavaliers
WR Fields, Malachi
WR Wilson, JR
WR Washington, Malik
TE Misch, Grant
QB Muskett, Tony
RB Jones, Perris
Louisville Cardinals
WR Thrash, Jamari
WR Calloway, Jimmy
WR Coleman, Kevin
TE Lifson, Josh
QB Plummer, Jack
RB Jordan, Jawhar
Statistical Leaders
Virginia Cavaliers
Passing: A. Colandrea (1123)
Rushing: P. Jones (386)
Receiving: M. Washington (1044)
Touchdowns: M. Hollins (8)
Louisville Cardinals
Passing: J. Plummer (2159)
Rushing: J. Jordan (881)
Receiving: J. Thrash (712)
Touchdowns: J. Jordan (12)
Coaches:
Virginia Cavaliers: Tony Elliott (2nd season)
Louisville Cardinals: Jeff Brohm (1st season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
