Virginia Cavaliers vs Louisville Cardinals Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 01/13/2026

Game Time: 7:00 pm ET, Tuesday, January 13, 2026

Venue:  KFC Yum! Center, Louisville, KY

Where to Watch:  ESPN2

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Virginia +3.5, Louisville -3.5; Over/Under:  155.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Virginia +3.5, Louisville -3.5; Over/Under:  154.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Virginia +3.5, Louisville -3.5; Over/Under:  154.5 points

Virginia Cavaliers:  14-2 (3-1) (4th place, ACC)

Louisville Cardinals:  12-4 (2-2) (10th place, ACC)

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Virginia Cavaliers:  4-1  last 5

Louisville Cardinals:  3-2  last 5

Virginia is entering this game with a 14-2 record overall, a 3-1 record in conference games, and they are 2-1 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a win against the Stanford Cardinal in their last game. Thijs De Ridder led the team in points in that game with 22 while Chance Mallory was next on the team with 13. Dallin Hall led the team in assists with 6 in that game while Malik Thomas led the team in rebounds with 7. They were 44% from the field, 27% from 3-point range, and 82% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 85.1 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 66.8 PPG against them. Virginia has an ATS record of 9-5-2 this season and their O/U record is 7-9.

Louisville is entering this game with a 12-4 record overall, a 2-2 conference record, and they are 9-1 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a win against the Boston College Eagles in their last game. Sananda Fru led the team in points in that game with 19 while Adrian Wooley was next on the team with 16. Adrian Wooley led the team in assists with 4 in that game while Sananda Fru led the team in rebounds with 13. They were 49% from the field, 29% from 3-point range, and 76% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 88.3 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 69.6 PPG against them. Louisville has an ATS record of 9-7 this season and their O/U record is 7-9.

The current betting odds have Virginia listed as a 3.5 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Virginia has looked good in their games this season with their 14-2 record overall and their 3-1 conference record which has them right near the top of the ACC. They have been a good road team so far too with their 2-1 road record this year. Meanwhile, Louisville has looked good in their games this season with their 12-4 record overall and their 2-2 conference record which has them right in the top half of the ACC. They have looked great on their home court with their 9-1 home record this year. Louisville looked like one of the best teams in the nation to start the season, but they have struggled more in their games against stronger opponents. They are only 3-2 in their last 5 games and they are off a bounce back win over Boston College in their last one, but 2 of those losses have come in their last 3 games and 1 of those was at home to Duke. They have been missing a key player in their lineup and that has had a negative impact on them in their last 3 games. Virginia has been quietly putting together a great start to the season in Odom's 1st year, and they have already ripped off some impressive wins too. Their only conference loss was a triple OT loss to Virginia Tech, but they have won 3 games in a row now and that Virginia defense is starting to show again. Virginia is going to muck up this game against a shorthanded Louisville team and they have the talent to pull off the upset in this game. The best way to place a bet here is on Virginia to cover the spread in this game. 

Virginia Louisville Prediction:  Our NCAAB Pick for Tuesday, January 13, 2026 (7:00 pm ET start time) is Virginia 65 Louisville 63.

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Virginia Cavaliers: 0-6 ATS after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games. 11-18 ATS as an underdog. 4-7 ATS versus up-tempo teams averaging 62 or more shots/game. 5-2 1H UNDER when the total is 150 to 159.5. 9-4 1H UNDER after game where they allowed a shooting pct. of 33% or less.

Louisville Cardinals: 7-4 ATS off a home win against a conference rival. 26-19 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins. 11-5 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 80%). 9-3 UNDER as a home favorite of 6 points or less or pick. 12-6 UNDER in a home game where the total is 150 to 159.5.

Virginia Cavaliers:  J. White (G) Questionable - Wrist.

Louisville Cardinals:  R. Conwell (G) Questionable - Undisclosed. M. Brown (G) Questionable - Back.

"The guys have gotten a little bit better at it each and every game. It's not designed to steal the ball occasionally. We got a couple the other day, but certainly we could take a couple of chances here and there when we need to. But it definitely is something that is important to our overall defense. There can be a little bit of a wear down effect when you're having to face that over and over again, and I think the guys have improved." - Ryan Odom on his team’s defense this season. 

"We fully expect him to be back out there this season at some point. When that is, I don't know right now." - Pat Kelsey on the injury to Mikel Brown Jr.

T. De Ridder 

J. Grünloh 

D. Hall 

S. Lewis 

M. Thomas

M. Brown 

R. Conwell 

S. Fru 

J. Hadley 

I. McKneely

PPG: Thijs De Ridder (16.4)

APG: Dallin Hall (4.1)

Reb/G: Johann Grunloh (6.8)

PPG: Ryan Conwell (19.9)

APG: Mikel Brown Jr. (5.1)

Reb/G: Sananda Fru (7.1)

Coaches:

Virginia Cavaliers: Ryan Odom (1st season)

Louisville Cardinals: Pat Kelsey (2nd season)