by Chuck Sommers
Thursday, Mar 17, 2022
NCAA Tournament - First Round
Time: 9:20 p.m. ET
Time: 9:20 p.m. ET
Venue: KeyBank Center, Buffalo, NY
Where to watch: TNT
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Arkansas -5
BetMGM: Arkansas -5.5
Caesars: Arkansas -5
Season record
Vermont: 28-5
Arkansas: 25-8
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Vermont - Arkansas preview and analysis
Vermont analysis
The Vermont Catamounts dominated the America East conference this season. As a result, the catamounts will be playing in the NCAA tournament in what might be one of the more intriguing matchups in the first round of this tournament.
Because when I look at Vermont, sure they are a 13 seed in this tournament going against a number four seed in the Arkansas Razorbacks that won 25 games and was one of the more under the radar teams in the SEC this season. But this is a group that has shown that if they get hot at the right time, they are bound to be a very pesky group.
And really, it's two guys that are leading the way for this Vermont group. On one hand you have center Ryan Davis, who averages 17.2 points per game this season. Normally when you're a center, you also want to dominate the battle on the rebounds. Not in Davis case. Sure he's grabbed close to six rebounds a game, but what's even more impressive is that he's shooting 59% from the field, and an astounding 42.3% from 3 point range.
There aren't many guys in the country that can be combated with that kind of shooting touch and ability to score inside and outside. And then you look at point guard Ben Shungu who is the only other Vermont player averaging double figures in scoring at 16.1 points per game. His assist may not be where he wants him to be, but he's also shooting 41.4% from 3 point range which is really a dangerous combination at point guard and center that this group possesses.
No one really looks at this conference and believes that it is a group of teams that can contend amongst the rest in the country, but when it comes to Vermont there's a lot to like with this team. It might not fully result in an upset victory over a very talented Arkansas squad but it is going to get people talking.
Arkansas analysis
When we talk about the top teams in the SEC, understandably so we have let a few slip through the cracks. Of course at the top, there's Kentucky, Auburn, and Tennessee. But surprisingly enough, the Arkansas Razorbacks, who finished the season rank 17th in the country, find themselves in a very interesting position as a team that could go very far in the NCAA tournament.
And I don't think it has anything to do with how bad Arkansas is, or with how minutely talented they are compared to the other teams in this conference. But you look at Arkansas and you notice there is a lot of balance and a lot of depth that I think has gotten them very far heading Into the NCAA tournament.
Leading the way for this group is point guard JD Notae who finished the regular season averaging 18.4 points, nearly five rebounds and almost four assists per game. And fortunately for him, he has a lot of help not just in his backcourt, but on the wing as well. Stanley Umude shot nearly 46 percent from the floor while averaging 12 points and five rebounds per game.
And then there is Au’Diese Toney and 52.8 percent shooting while averaging 11 points per game. The senior guard has been a calming presence at the small forward position but if he can develop a 3-point shot as the season ends, that’s going to be a major factor for Arkansas.
Arkansas may not have the ultimate matchup preference to go against the likes of Davis, but they have a group of guys that can break down a defense from inside out and make life a little bit more easier heading into the first round of the tournament. There's a lot to factor in this game, but you can see why the higher seed is predicted to win this game.
Prediction
I think Vermont puts up a fight but at the end of it, I can see Arkansas pulling away with the win and the late cover. I'm intrigued to see how Vermont handles the attacks against Davis and Shungu with Arkansas' own attack of Notae and Jaylin Williams. That's going to determine the winner far sooner than later. Arkansas by 10
Betting trends
Vermont is 21-27 ATS as an underdog since 1997.
The over is 38-19 for Arkansas following a conference game the last three seasons.
Projected starting lineup
Vermont:
PG: Ben Shungu
SG: Justin Mazzulla
SF: Finn Sullivan
PF: Isaiah Powell
C: Ryan Davis
Arkansas:
PG: J.D. Notae
SG: Stanley Umude
SF: Au'Diese Toney
PF: Trey Wade
C: Jaylin Williams
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
