Game Time: 7:30 PM  ET, Saturday, November, 20th, 2021

Venue:  Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, Oxford Mississippi

Where to Watch: SEC Network, 

 

DraftKings:  Spread: Ole Miss -36.5; Over/Under: 64.5 points

Circa:  Spread: Ole Miss -37; Over/Under:  64.5 points

Caesars:  Spread: Ole Miss -37;  Over/Under:  64.5 points 

 

  

Vanderbilt:  0-6 conf, 2-8 overall (SEC)

Ole Miss:  4-2 conf, 8-2 overall (SEC)

Vanderbilt is a 36.5 point underdog.  A point spread that big is usually reserved for when an SEC team is playing a Sun Belt team or a conference USA team… We don’t usually see them when an SEC team is playing an SEC team.  Vanderbilt’s games are the exception. Vanderbilt is winless in the conference.  Their only two wins all season have come against lowly UConn and lowly Colorado State. The Georgia Bulldogs and Mississippi State both beat Vandy by more than the 36.5 spread.  

Ole Miss is coming off a solid win over the Texas A&M Aggies 29-19.  They have lost to Auburn and Alabama this season and that is it.  In order to finish 10-2 the Rebels will have to collect this easy win over Vandy and take down Mississippi State in the season finale.  Ole Miss is right now ranked #10 in the nation… They would be in contention for a college football playoff spot if they had gotten just one more win in OCT.   Now they will have to win out and nab the SEC conference championship… to have a chance.

Ben Burns is 26-11 the past four Saturdays; this is the BIGGEST of them all. That's because Ben's 2021 COLLEGE GAME OF THE YEAR has arrived. As you know, this play has a history of success. Last year, we had to wait for Dec 12 for Ben's BIGGEST college bet. It resulted in a BLOWOUT WINNER with V-Tech. Ben's 2019 GOY (Ole Miss on 11/2) ALSO resulted in a DOUBLE-DIGIT COVER. The 2021 version goes Saturday afternoon. Make sure to make the most of it! Get Big Ben’s picks; they're available right now at the Shop Picks page, where you can find all of the Best Bets from our champion sports handicappers.  Also get help with all your needs in the NHL, NBA, NFL, and every game in the college football season.

Recent Form

Vandy is 2-8 on the season, 4-6 ATS.  They have logged 4 Overs and 6 Unders.  They are 1-2 in road games.  

Ole Miss is 8-2 on the season, 6-3-1 ATS.  They are an unbeaten 6-0 at home.  They are currently on a 5 game streak of Unders.

 

Vanderbilt stats are bad.  They are a team on a five game losing streak bad!  They are 122nd in total yards with 297.7 per, 112th in passing yards and 111th in rushing yards…. And an awful 128th in points scored (there are only 130 teams measured) with 15.1 per. 

Ole Miss stats are impressive across the board.  The Rebels are 15th in the FBS in points with 36.9 ppg, 3rd in yards with 522.1 ypg, 22nd in passing yards with 282.3 per, and 3rd (in the nation) in rushing yards with 239.8 per.

Defensive Analysis

Vanderbilt is rotten on defense too. The Commodores rank 119th in total yards given up 458.9 per game (161.2 yards more than they get on offense), 114th in pass defense, 105th in run defense, and 116th in points defended… they give up 35.4 ppg…. The one great stat they have is they rank 15th in takeaways.

Ole Miss isn’t nearly as strong on defense as they are on offense… of course against Vandy they may not need to be strong at all.  The Rebels rank 100th in total yards giving up 427 per game, 80th in defending the pass, 104th in defending the rush, 67th in defending scoring.  The missing part of these comparisons is of course that Ole Miss lost to Auburn and Alabama and nobody else.  They have turned a lot of these games into giant shootouts… like when they beat a much better than usual Arkansas team this season with a 52-51 final score.  That’s a lot of yards and points to give up while still getting a win.  Vandy has no comparison… In fact Vandy had a close game against UConn (who are maybe the worst team in college football not just this year, but always).

Our prediction for Saturday, November 20th is….   Ole Miss 55 - Vandy 3

 

Normally I look at 37 point spreads as a gift!  Normally I advise to take the points because a lot can happen in a game with a spread that big.  A team up by 28 points can and usually do take their foot off the gas and save starters for next week.  A team up by 30 points may even get careless with the ball and laugh off a turnover.  The most important thing that can happen is a team up by 35 will simply run out the clock and give the ball back instead of risking injury anywhere on the roster.   This is not that game.  Vandy is historically bad and Ole Miss is coached by Lane “give me some respect!” Kiffin.  Ole Miss may cover the spread before halftime, and Ole Miss’s second unit will be better than either of the two teams Vanderbilt has managed wins against this season.  

 

Don't miss our champion handicappers' Free NCAAF Picks and Premium Selections every day here at Bigal.com.  Just click on Shop Picks for our Best Bets, or click on Shop Subscriptions to join for a week or a month.  And if you enjoyed this Commodores/Rebels preview, be sure to bookmark Bigal.com for our daily Game Previews and Predictions.

 

Vanderbilt is 10-20 ATS over the last 3 seasons.

Vanderbilt is 6-13 ATS after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.

Ole Miss is 12-4 ATS as a favorite the last 3 seasons.

Ole Miss is 7-1 ATS as a favorite this season.

Ole Miss is 5-1 ATS in home games this season.

Vanderbilt

QB Mike Wright, RB Rocko Griffin, WR Will Sheppard, WR Chris Pierce JR, WR Cam Johnson, LT Tyler Steele, LG Cole Clemens, OC Julian Hernandez, RG Delfin Castillo, RT Bradley Ashmore, TE Ben Bresnahan

Ole Miss

QB Matt Corral, RB Jerrion Ealy, WR Braylon Sanders, WR Dontario Drummond, WR Jonathan Mingo, LT Nick Broeker, LG Jalen Cunningham, OC Orlando Umana, RG Caleb Warren, RT Jeremy James, TE Chase Rogers

Vandy

Passing Yards: Ken Seals 1,173

Rushing Yards: Patrick Smith 325

Receiving Yards: Chris Pierce Jr 496

Ole Miss

Passing Yards: Matt Corral 2,774

Rushing Yards: Jerrion Ealy 588

Receiving Yards: Dontario Drummond 707

Vandy: Clark Lea.  Coach Lea is not burning up the SEC or the world.  He was hired in 2020… so maybe he is just a new coach that needs a few years to build his kind of roster?

 

Ole Miss: Lane Kiffin has recovered from the horrible career stumble that was taking the USC job.  He wandered in the college football outskirts by taking the head coaching job at Florida Atlantic after being the OC for Alabama.  Then in 2020 he was asked back in to the dance with Ole Miss.  He is a head coach in the SEC, He makes 4.5 million dollars a year, and he is going to do damage before whoever coaching USC ever rights that ship.