Vanderbilt Commodores vs Florida Gators Game Preview and Prediction - 10/09/2021

by Amedeus Mastrangelo

Game Time: 12:00 pm ET, Saturday, October 9, 2021
Venue:  Steve Spurrier Field at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, FL
Where to Watch:  SEC Network 

 

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Vandy +39, Florida -39; Over/Under:  58.5 points
Bet365:  Point Spread:  Vandy +39, Florida -39; Over/Under:  58.5 points
BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Vandy +38.5, Florida -38.5; Over/Under:  58.5 points
 

Season Record

Vanderbilt Commodores:  2-3 (5th place, SEC East)
Florida Gators:  3-2 (4th place, SEC East)
 
Do not miss out on our expert handicapper analysis! Ben Burns is on a 29-16 CFB RUN (6-2 L8)! Make sure you check out his picks and many more from the expert handicappers featured in the Shop Picks section.

 

Vanderbilt Commodores vs Florida Gators Preview and Analysis

 
Recent Form
Vanderbilt Commodores:  won at home on Oct. 2 against the Connecticut Huskies 30-28.
Florida Gators:  lost on the road on Oct. 2 against the Kentucky Wildcats 20-13.
 
 
 

Vanderbilt Commodores Analysis

Vanderbilt is coming into this game with a 2-3 record overall and they are 1-3 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. This will be their 2nd conference matchup of the season and they have already fallen behind with a 0-1 record in their conference games this year. Their 3 losses came against the East Tennessee State Buccaneers, the Stanford Cardinal, and the Georgia Bulldogs while their 2 wins came against the Colorado State Rams and against UConn in their last game. UConn is a very bad team yet Vandy managed just to scrape by them at home by 2 points. Ken Seals played alright in that game as he completed 27/40 passes for 333 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception. Rocko Griffin led the team in rushing with 77 yards and 1 touchdown on 19 carries but their run game was not that explosive in that game. Their receiving corps had a very nice day though as Will Sheppard led the team in receiving with 119 yards and 2 touchdowns on 8 receptions while Chris Pierce was right behind him with 103 receiving yards on 9 receptions. Dashaun Jerkins led the defense with 7 solo tackles and 1 assisted one while Jaylen Mahoney was right behind him with 6 solo tackles and 1 assisted one along with 1 sack in that game as well. Lorenza Surgers had the only other sack for his team in that one. Max Worship and Gabe Jeudy both came away with 1 interception each for them in that game. They have scored 80 points in their first 5 games and they have allowed their opponents to score 175 points against them. Their offense is averaging 315.4 YPG while their defense is allowing 447.8 YPG.
 
 

Florida Gators Analysis

Florida is coming into this game with a 3-2 record overall and they are 2-1 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. This will be their 4th conference matchup on their schedule and they are already behind with a 1-2 record in their conference games this season. Their wins came against the FAU Owls, the USF Bulls, and the Tennessee Volunteers while their 2 losses came against the Alabama Crimson Tide and against Kentucky in their last game. Emory Jones played alright in that game but he also struggled at times as he completed 23/31 passes for 203 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception. Jones also led the team in rushing with 63 yards on 13 carries while Dameon Pierce had 54 rushing yards on 8 carries in what was a pretty quiet day for the ground game. The receiving corps did not have a big day either as Jacob Copeland led the receivers with 59 yards on 6 receptions. Mohamoud Diabate led the defense with 4 solo tackles and 7 assisted ones in that game. Zachary Carter and Daquan Newkirk both led the defense in sacks with 1 each while Tre'Vez Johnson came away with the only interception for them in that game. They have scored 157 points in their first 5 games and they have allowed their opponents to score 99 points against them. Their offense is averaging 509.2 YPG while their defense is allowing 325.6 YPG.
 

 

Vanderbilt vs Florida Prediction

Florida had been averaging over 30 points per game before their last game when they were stunted by UK. They have a really good offense that can score points and was able to keep up pace with Alabama losing that game by just 2 points. Vanderbilt is really bad as they have struggled this year a lot. Even in the games they have won they were playing the worst teams in college football and just managed to scrape by. They allowed both CSU and UConn to score over 20 points against them as their defense is just awful. Florida is going to find ways to put up a lot of points on them here as they did allow Georgia to score 62 on them in one game. Vandy will likely not be shut out here as Florida does not have an elite defense so they will get a few scores. The best bet to place in this game is on the over as Florida will likely score enough points on this bad defense to get there themselves along with a few points from Vandy as well and this one is going over.
 
Vanderbilt Florida Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, October 9, 2021 (12:00 pm ET start time) is Florida 59 Vandy 21.
Don't miss our champion handicappers free picks and expert football picks today.  And if you enjoyed this Vanderbilt Commodores Florida Gators prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our weekly NCAAF predictions and previews.
 

NCAAF Betting Trends

 
Vanderbilt Commodores: 157-165 ATS in all games. 80-64 ATS in road games. 12-27 ATS after allowing 325 or more passing yards in their last game.
Florida Gators: 187-168 ATS in all games. 149-131 ATS as a favorite. 132-113 ATS against conference opponents.
 

Key Injuries

 
Vanderbilt Commodores:  J. Ball (TE) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed injury. R. Davis (RB) out for season - Toe injury.
Florida Gators:  K. Elam (CB) day-to-day - Undisclosed injury. V. Miller (LB) out for season - Bicep injury. J. Hill (CB) out for season - Knee injury.
 

Players to Watch

 
Vanderbilt Commodores: Will Sheppard is one player to watch in this game. He is coming off of a nice game where he had over 100 yards receiving. He will want to build off of that good performance in this game so look for him to get some looks and make some plays as they will have a lot on their hands here.
 
Florida Gators: Emory Jones is one player to watch here. He is a dual-threat quarterback and leads his team in both passing and rushing yards this season. He did not play well in their last game in their loss to UK so look for him to want to make that up here and play a much better game.
 

Notable Quotes

 
"I will take an ugly win any day knowing we have a long way to go. What we needed was for (quarterback Kenny Seals) to step up and play with confidence. Going out on that drive he has a look in his eye. He was determined to get it done. He stepped up in a big moment with his offensive teammates." - Clark Lea on his team’s close win over UConn.
 
"I mean, you're not going make all the mistakes we made in the course of a game and expect to win. You're not going to win in the SEC doing that." - Dan Mullen after their loss to Kentucky in their last game.
 
 
 

Starting Lineups

 
Vanderbilt Commodores
WR Sheppard, Will 
WR Pierce Jr., Chris 
WR Johnson, Cam 
TE Bresnahan, Ben  
QB Seals, Ken 
RB Griffin, Rocko  
 
Florida Gators
WR Copeland, Jacob 
WR Shorter, Justin 
WR Whittemore, Trent 
TE Gamble, Kemore 
QB Jones, Emory 
RB Pierce, Dameon 

Statistical Leaders

 
Vanderbilt Commodores
Passing: K. Seals (894)
Rushing: R. Griffin (215)
Receiving: C. Pierce Jr. (290)
Touchdowns: C. Johnson (2)
Sacks: J. Mahoney (1)
Tackles: A. Orji (23)
 
Florida Gators
Passing: E. Jones (870)
Rushing: E. Jones (438)
Receiving: Receiving: J. Copeland (291)
Touchdowns: D. Pierce (5)
Sacks: Z. Carter (5)
Tackles: T. Dean III (13)
 
Coaches:
Vanderbilt Commodores: Clark Lea (1st season)
Florida Gators: Dan Mullen (4th season)
 

Weather Forecast

85 degrees F partly cloudy, 76% humidity, 0% chance of rain, up to 5 mph wind speeds NE.


Amedeus Mastrangelo

About the Author:

Amedeus Mastrangelo has been heavily wagering on all sports for years and plays just about everything, including sides, totals, favorites, underdogs, against the spread, alternative spreads, first half, second half, player props, and futures. The bottom line is, if Mastrangelo can see an edge in any way shape or form, then he's going to take advantage.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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