by Chuck Sommers
Wednesday, Nov 24, 2021
Game time: 2 p.m. ET, November 27, 2021
Venue: Apogee Stadium, Denton, TX
Where to watch: ESPN+
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: UTSA -10.5
BetMGM: UTSA -10.5
Caesars: UTSA -10.5
Season record
No. 15 UTSA: 11-0 (7-0 Conference USA)
North Texas: 5-6 (4-3 Conference USA)
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UTSA - UNT preview and analysis
Last week
UTSA: won 34-31 vs. UAB
UNT: won 49-7 at Florida International
Where are we on getting the UTSA Roadrunners into the College Football Playoff?
I get it. Likely not happening at this juncture. But the dreams of an undefeated season remain alive for the 15th-ranked Roadrunners and can end the regular season undefeated with a win over the North Texas Mean Green on Saturday.
UTSA is still undefeated by the hairs on their chinny chin chin. The UAB Blazers arguably played the toughest game UTSA has played to this point, coming down to the final play where Frank Harris hit Oscar Cardenas on a tipped 1-yard touchdown with 3 seconds remaining for the improbable victory.
UAB outgained UTSA by nearly 100 yards despite Harris having one of his best games of the season, throwing for 323 yards and three touchdowns. Star running back Sincere McCormick ran for 65 yards on 20 carries to go with a touchdown, while De'Corian Clark caught six receptions for 104 yards.
UTSA covered four straight before its last two games against Southern Miss and UAB. The Roadrunners were 32.5-point favorites and only won by 10 against the Golden Eagles, while UTSA had only a 3.5-point edge against the Blazers.
Given how that game turned out, I think bettors/supporters of UTSA might understand.
But the next time the Roadrunners step foot in the Alamodome, the Conference USA title will be on the line against the winner of the Western Kentucky-Marshall game that will kick off an hour and a half after UTSA's proceedings against the Mean Green get underway.
North Texas, on the heels of a four-game winning streak, can become bowl eligible for the fifth time in six seasons under coach Seth Littrell with a victory. The Mean Green were a four-win team playing in the Myrtle Beach Bowl last season, losing by four touchdowns to Appalachian State.
The Mean Green at least showed they're better than the bottom feeders of the conference. That 49-7 win over the Florida International Panthers last week was one of UNT's more dominant performances in a while. North Texas held a 611-245 edge in yards and got 219 yards and two touchdowns on six completions from quarterback Austin Aune.
The UNT run game accumulated 378 yards and five touchdowns, led by a combined 211 and three scores from DeAndre Torrey and Ikaika Ragsdale.
The Mean Green come in as high as 11-point underdogs at most books, but UNT has covered seven of its last eight games; the only loss a 28-point thrashing against the Thundering Herd.
Prediction
This is going to come down to how well North Texas can run the ball against this stingy UTSA run defense. The Roadrunners only give up 101.4 yards on the ground per game, and finding a play-action game will be tough if UNT can't run. UTSA's defense has allowed 340.8 passing yards per road game, and Aune won't be relied on to win the game with his arm. UTSA gets it done and moves on to an important bowl season. UTSA by 17
Betting trends
UTSA is 6-0 ATS in its last six after allowing more than 200 yards rushing the week prior.
UTSA is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 road games.
North Texas is 5-0 ATS in its last five.
Statistical leaders
UTSA:
Passing: Frank Harris -- 2,629 yards, 23 TD, 5 INT
Rushing: Sincere McCormick -- 1,215 yards, 12 TD
Receiving: Zakhari Franklin -- 847 yards, 10 TD
North Texas:
Passing: Austin Aune -- 1,647 yards, 9 TD, 7 INT
Rushing: Deandre Torrey -- 1,106 yards, 10 TD
Receiving: Roderic Burns -- 702 yards, 4 TD
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
