by Chuck Sommers
Saturday, Dec 11, 2021PUBG Mobile New Mexico Bowl
Game time: 2:15 p.m. ET; Dec. 18, 2021
Venue: University Stadium, Albuquerque, NM
Where to watch: ESPN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Fresno State -11
BetMGM: Fresno State -10.5
Caesars: Fresno State -11
Season record
UTEP: 7-5
Fresno State: 9-3
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UTEP - Fresno State preview and analysis
The Fresno State Bulldogs know they missed an opportunity for a bit more of a high-profile bowl game, but survey says they'll take it out on the UTEP Miners in the New Mexico Bowl.
Fresno State had just one loss too many this season en route to a 9-3 finish and falling short of a conference championship. It wasn't they were losses in general, but just when and how. The losses to Hawaii and Boise State put a wrench into those plans, thwarting one of the best passing attacks in the country.
Bulldogs quarterback Jake Haener led the way with 3,810 yards and 32 touchdowns, but those nine interceptions will proven inopportune at the worst times. Jalen Cropper was his best target, hauling in 827 yards and 11 touchdowns; no other Bulldogs receiver reeled in more than four.
For the most part, Fresno State had a solid defense that complemented Haener and the offense well. The Bulldogs allowed only 20.3 points per game this season behind a vaunted pass rush featuring David Perales and Kevin Atkins with seven sacks each. Fresno State's defense had only 10 interceptions with Evan Williams leading the way with three picks.
In short, the best way for Fresno State to impact this game is via the pass rush. The Bulldogs give up just under 343 total yards per game and have made it a priority to stop the run; they're only allowing 127 yards per game on the ground, which is good heading into a matchup with a UTEP team that averages 143.5 per game.
But the Miners scraped by into this bowl game after starting 6-1. UTEP had aspirations of a showdown with UTSA for Texas/Conference-USA supremity, but the offense has taken a huge hit since that sixth win in their first seven games. UTEP allowed at least 28 points in four of its final five games.
Miners quarterback Gavin Hardison is closing in on a 3,000-yard season, but his 12 interceptions did not help the cause. He averaged one per game in the final five games to go with only nine touchdown passes.
UTEP is more than capable of running the ball; leading tailback Ronald Awatt ran for 803 yards and five touchdowns. But the Miners need to hope their defense is good enough to slow down Fresno State'spassing attack.
Prediction
UTEP gives up only 204.5 passing yards per game, so it's going to come down to slowing down Fresno State's offense, and I can't imagine now being the time UTEP does it. Bulldogs get the win. Fresno State by 14
Betting trends
UTEP is 10-12 ATS in its last 22 as an underdog.
UTEP is 7-11 ATS in its last 18 off a straight-up loss.
Fresno State is 1-6 ATS off a road win.
Fresno State is 1-6 ATS in its last seven as a neutral field favorite.
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
