Utah Utes vs. USC Trojans: Pac-12 Championship Prediction, Preview, Picks & Odds - 12/2/2022

by Chuck Sommers

Monday, Nov 28, 2022
Pac-12 Championship Game

Time: 8 p.m. ET
Venue: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
Where to watch: FOX

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks


DraftKings: USC -3
FanDuel: USC -2.5
BetMGM: USC -2.5
Caesars: USC -2.5

Season record
No. 14 Utah: 9-3
No. 6 USC: 11-1

Conference championship week is here, and you can't tell me you don't think these games mean a little bit extra on the books. College Football Playoff implications, the balance of power in the college football landscape to be decided this weekend, starting Friday with a big game notably in Las Vegas. Do you have the right idea when you head to the books for these important games? Our champion handicappers surely have you covered. Will Rogers is running an impressive 24-11-0 in the last month. Al McMordie has also been cashing in heavily with a 40-29-1 mark in college football over the last 30 days. Our guys here have you ready to go for what should be an exciting week. Be tuned to bigal.com for everything!

Utah - USC preview, analysis and prediction


Last week
Utah: won 63-21 at Colorado
USC: won 38-27 vs. No. 15 Notre Dame

It only seems appropriate that the PAC 12 championship game would feature these two teams. For as much as we probably would have loved to enjoy Oregon after the year it had or even Washington after the stellar year that it had, I think it had to come down to this it had to be Utah and USC for all the marbles in Las Vegas on Friday. There was just no possible way it could have been done anywhere else or anyhow else. The defending champions taking on the potential dynasty in the making USC Trojans. And to spell it out normally, it doesn't take much to understand the magnitude of this game.

Basically, it goes down like this. USC by the time the College Football Playoff rankings come out, Will be in the top 4 of the College Football Playoff. That part is not debatable. Even if you look at the new AP poll that came out on Sunday, USC is right there at #4 with Georgia, Michigan, and TCU following suit. A win for the Trojans means a win for the PAC 12, which means a PAC 12 team --ironically enough that they will be moving to the big 10 very soon -- will be in the College Football Playoff later in December.

And if there's any team that can lay claim to what it is doing right now and is a legitimate threat in the College Football Playoff, it is USC. Now I will preface this by saying this. Defensively USC would get torched by any other offense. Defensively, the Trojans are not that good. Everything that we've known about USC to this point has been based on what it can do offensively. And now after a year of wide-open speculation and not knowing who would even think about taking part in the Heisman Trophy race, one quarterback stands out among the rest and that would be Caleb Williams. USC's last notable game of the year on Saturday at home against Notre Dame, Williams gave one more performance for the ages. He threw for 232 yards and a touchdown and also struck a Heisman pose after running into the end zone for another score in the 38-27 win for USC over the Fighting Irish.

It's crazy that it has come to the final part of the regular season for us to definitively say that there is a Heisman Trophy favorite residing in Southern California. Williams finished the regular season with 3712 passing yards, 34 touchdowns and only three interceptions. Called it the Lincoln Riley offense if you want call it having an abundance amount of talent around him, but the fact that the only blemish on USC's Ledger this year is one loss by one point with Williams playing as well as he has, is pretty good. Not to mention that that blemish came without Jordan Addison. USC will not have Travis die in the backfield, of course, but having his top receiver back is going to be a major proponent for Williams in this important game.

There is also one important caveat in all of this. The one loss that USC suffered this year? Against Utah. And Utah by the grace of the world that is the tiebreaker, the three-team tiebreaker to be specific, is getting the chance to defend its PAC 12 championship against the powerful USC offense. Utah is coming off a 63-21 win at Colorado on Saturday the easiest win for any of the three teams that we're still fighting for a spot. The only thing that could have made this more memorable is if cow beat UCLA last week and set the whole thing in motion but because Utah took care of business and everyone else did, Utah got the tiebreaker and will be defending its championship in Las Vegas this week.

Utah is a very well-balanced team. And USC knows that first hand given how the earlier matchup went between the two teams which ended in a 43-42 win for Utah in Salt Lake City. That game was the ultimate coming-out party for Utah quarterback Cameron rising who threw for 415 yards and two touchdowns, outdueling Williams who threw for five touchdowns and 381 yards. If there's one thing we know about this game, the points may come up plenty, and we're gonna get a very good quarterback battle. USC's defense at least to my knowledge is not good enough to game plan for a team a second time period I could be wrong but it's not going to be as easy as anyone thinks it is.

Prediction


Utah was favored by 3.5 in the first meeting. USC opens as 2.5 favorites in this one on a neutral field. The PAC 12 picked a very good venue for a conference championship game period last year wasn't that great. This one has a chance to be an all-time classic. And while the defense may not be able to figure it out right away, I am not discrediting or discounting the impact that Caleb Williams will have with a healthy Jordan Addison this time around for USC. USC by 3 

Betting trends


Utah is 69-40 ATS as an underdog since 1992.

Utah is 89-64 ATS off a win against a conference opponent since 1992.

USC is 38-20 ATS after winning 6 or 7 out of 8 since 1992.

USC is 22-10 ATS off 3 straight overs since 1992.

Statistical leaders


Utah:
Passing: Cameron Rising -- 2,629 yards, 22 TD, 7 INT
Rushing: Tavion Thomas -- 687 yards, 7 TD
Receiving: Dalton Kincaid -- 850 yards, 8 TD

USC:
Passing: Caleb Williams -- 3,712 yards, 34 TD, 3 INT
Rushing: Travis Dye -- 884  yards, 9 TD
Receiving: Jordan Addison -- 810 yards, 8 TD

Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert football picks today. And if you enjoyed this Utah Utes - USC Trojans prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily college football projections and previews.

Chuck Sommers

About the Author:

Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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