by Chuck Sommers
Thursday, Nov 17, 2022
Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Autzen Stadium, Eugene, OR
Where to watch: ESPN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Utah -2
FanDuel: Utah -1.5
BetMGM: Utah -1.5
Caesars: Utah -2
Season record
No. 10 Utah: 8-2 (6-1 Pac-12)
No. 12 Oregon: 8-2 (6-1 Pac-12)
The college football fun never stops and we're inching closer to conference championship season. A lot of big games are still to be determined in who will play whom and where, and our top-notch handicappers have been at the forefront for the last month or so providing you with the winners you need to head into December with some confidence in your pocket. How can you be so sure? Of course you have to look at the likes of Kyle Hunter going 20-8-0 over the last 30 days, as well as Will Rogers at 22-14-0 over the last month. What about Vegas Writer? He's sitting at 12-6-1 over the last 30 days since joining our team of champion handicappers that has been killing it everywhere this year. You see the success rate. You need to be on board to join our guys who can get you where you need to go for the homestretch of the college football season. Make sure you're keeping tabs here at bigal.com to find out what our champion handicappers are thinking in all sports!
Utah - Oregon preview, analysis and prediction
Last week
Utah: won 42-7 vs. Stanford
Oregon: lost 37-34 vs. No. 25 Washington
If things went the way we expected them to last week, perhaps this game wouldn’t carry much weight as it does. My math is a bit off so you’ll have to deal with this nonsense, but nevertheless, the Pac-12 might be decided this weekend in the primetime game of the week with the Utah Utes and Oregon Ducks meeting for what could be a seismic-shifting meeting in Eugene.
If things went the way we expected them to last week, perhaps this game wouldn’t carry much weight as it does. My math is a bit off so you’ll have to deal with this nonsense, but nevertheless, the Pac-12 might be decided this weekend in the primetime game of the week with the Utah Utes and Oregon Ducks meeting for what could be a seismic-shifting meeting in Eugene.
The Ducks’ 37-34 loss to the Washington Huskies certainly shook some things up, to say the least, in the Pac-12. USC sits atop the conference at 7-1 with a date against UCLA on the horizon. But right behind the Trojans sit these two teams at 6-1, with the winner all but assured a spot in the Pac-12 title game. Whomever wins would get to seven wins and would require a lot of help from the teams below.
But that loss to Washington did not help matters. The Ducks were rolling as the hottest team in the conference but finally met their match against Michael Penix Jr. and the Huskies. Penix Jr. outdueled Oregon quarterback Bo Nix to the tune of 408 yards and two touchdowns. Nix was good himself, going 19 of 27 for 280 yards and two scores, but the Oregon offense just ran out of gas and faltered at the worst time. Oregon went 3-and-out four plays after Penix launched a long touchdown pass, and then Washington went on to score a field goal for the eventual win. Peyton Henry missed a potential game-winning field goal in 2018 against Oregon, but got a second chance this time around.
"Well, certainly not the result we had hoped for. I think our guys played the entire game. They certainly didn't quit didn't throw in the towel," Oregon coach Dan Lanning said. "You have to give Washington credit, they played a complete game and we made more mistakes at the end of the game that hurt us."
It did, and it hurt Oregon’s College Football Playoff hopes when the Ducks were once sitting in the top-4. Now, they need some serious help and need to win the Pac-12. Beating the defending conference champs is one way to do it.
The Utes have won four in a row since their 42-32 loss to UCLA on Oct. 8. They’ve scored over 40 points three times and beat USC in the process. So a Utah win would leapfrog them to the top of the conference with one game to play, even if USC were to run the table.
Utah is coming off a 42-7 win over Stanford at home. Cameron Rising threw for three touchdowns, but the star was Tavion Thomas running for 180 yards and two touchdowns in a game that saw Stanford grab the opening points, and then pulling off 42 straight.
"I was just so happy to be out there with my teammates," Thomas said. "I wasn't worried about my carries, I was just worried about finishing this thing and playing with these guys."
Prediction
This is going to be one that determines the landscape of college football, for better or worse. One team is guaranteed to go to Vegas in a few weeks with this win, unless they completely fall apart down the road. I’m going with the experienced team that’s been here before and will have a defense that travels well. Utah by 7
Betting trends
Utah is 46-23 ATS as a road underdog since 1992.
Utah is 84-58 ATS after allowing 100 rushing yards or less since 1992.
Utah is 11-1 ATS after outrushing opponents by 150 yards or more in 2 straight games since 1992.
Oregon is 50-26 ATS when the line is between +3 and -3 since 1992.
Oregon is 25-9 ATS off a home loss since 1992.
Oregon is 110-76 ATS after a home game since 1992.
Statistical leaders
Utah:
Passing: Cameron Rising -- 2,225 yards, 19 TD, 4 INT
Rushing: Tavion Thomas -- 632 yards, 7 TD
Receiving: Dalton Kincaid -- 649 yards, 7 TD
Oregon:
Passing: Bo Nix -- 2,775 yards, 24 TD, 5 INT
Rushing: Bucky Irving -- 831 yards, 2 TD
Receiving: Troy Franklin -- 775 yards, 6 TD
Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert football picks today. And if you enjoyed this Utah Utes - Oregon Ducks prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily college football projections and previews.
Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
