Utah State Aggies vs UCLA Bruins Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 03/20/2025

Game Time: 9:25 pm ET, Thursday, March 20, 2025

Venue:  Rupp Arena, Lexington, KY

Where to Watch:  TNT

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  USU +5.5, UCLA -5.5; Over/Under:  144.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  USU +5.5, UCLA -5.5; Over/Under:  144.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  USU +5.5, UCLA -5.5; Over/Under:  144.5 points

Utah State Aggies:  26-7 (15-5) (3rd place, MWC)

UCLA Bruins:  22-10 (13-7) (4th place, Big Ten)

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Utah State Aggies:  2-3  last 5

UCLA Bruins:  3-2  last 5

Utah State is entering this game with a 26-7 record overall, a 15-5 record in conference games, and they are 4-1 in their neutral site games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a loss against the Colorado State Rams in their last game. Mason Falslev led the team in points in that game with 22 while Ian Martinez was next on the team with 13. Ian Martinez led the team in assists with 4 in that game while Karson Templin led the team in rebounds with 9. They were 36.5% from the field, 21.2% from 3-point range, and 63.3% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 80.9 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 70 PPG against them. Utah State has an ATS record of 16-16 this season and their O/U record is 16-15-1.

UCLA is entering this game with a 22-10 record overall, a 13-7 conference record, and they are 2-3 in their neutral site games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a loss against the Wisconsin Badgers in their last game. Sebastian Mack led the team in points in that game with 18 while Kobe Johnson was next on the team with 14. Dylan Andrews, Skyy Clark, Tyler Bilodeau, and Aday Mara each led the team in assists with 2 in that game while Tyler Bilodeau led the team in rebounds with 9. They were 32.4% from the field, 30% from 3-point range, and 65.4% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 74.8 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 65.7 PPG against them. UCLA has an ATS record of 18-13-1 this season and their O/U record is 15-17.

The current betting odds have UCLA listed as a 5.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. UCLA has looked really good in their games this season with their 22-10 record overall and their 13-7 conference record which had them in the top half of the Big Ten. They haven't looked great in neutral site games as they are 2-3 in those, but they went through a lot with it being their first season in the Big Ten and they still came out of it with a good season. Meanwhile, Utah State has looked really good in their games this season with their 26-7 record overall and their 15-5 conference record which has them in the top half of the MWC. They have also looked good in their neutral site games as they are 4-1 in those, but they played in a much weaker conference too. Utah State played in a much weaker Mountain West Conference and as good of a season they had, they still didn't win the MWC Tournament or the regular season. They are coming off a loss to Colorado State in the MWC Tournament and they haven't even looked that great lately as they are 2-3 in their last 5 games. UCLA is also coming off a loss in their conference tournament to Wisconsin, but they lost to a much better team and are still 3-2 in their last 5 games too. UCLA has had a much tougher schedule all season, with the added travel included, and that difference of strength is going to show up in this game. The best way to place a bet here is on UCLA to cover the spread in this game. 

Utah State UCLA Prediction:  Our NCAAB Pick for Thursday, March 20, 2025 (9:25 pm ET start time) is UCLA 76 Utah State 67.

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Utah State Aggies: 7-12 ATS as an underdog. 5-9 1H ATS versus good passing teams, averaging 16 assists/game or more. 18-24 1H ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%). 12-6 OVER as an underdog. 25-17 OVER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%). 

UCLA Bruins: 32-23 ATS versus good shooting teams - making 45% of their shots or more. 25-17 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%). 47-34 ATS versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 turnovers/game or less. 3-0 OVER in a postseason tournament game. 26-16 OVER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%).

Utah State Aggies:  None.

UCLA Bruins:  C. Horry (G) Questionable - Undisclosed. E. Freeny (G) Out - Redshirt. D. Williams (F) Out - Redshirt. E. Manjikian (F) Questionable - Arm. B. Williams (G) Out - Redshirt.

“We’re playing a program that has 11 National Championships, a team that was previously coached by John Wooden. When the jump ball goes up, it doesn’t matter what the jersey says. It’s a game of basketball, it’s a game of runs, you gotta have confidence and realize you’re supposed to be there, and I think our guys will be ready.” - Jerrod Calhoun on playing UCLA in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.

“In this tournament a lot of times, 90% of the games, you can shake them up and play them again, (and) it’ll be a different result, so you have to get hot at the right time.” - Mick Cronin on his team making the NCAA Tournament. 

D. Akanno 

D. Albury 

M. Falslev 

A. Gateretse 

I. Martinez

D. Andrews 

T. Bilodeau 

S. Clark 

E. Dailey 

K. Johnson

PPG: I. Martinez (16.8)

APG: D. Allen (3.9)

Reb/G: M. Falslev (6.2)

PPG: T. Bilodeau (14)

APG: D. Andrews (3.3)

Reb/G: K. Johnson (6)

Coaches:

Utah State Aggies: Jerrod Calhoun (1st season)

UCLA Bruins: Mick Cronin (6th season)