by Chuck Sommers
Tuesday, Feb 15, 2022
Time: 10 p.m. ET
Venue: Viejas Arena, San Diego, CA
Where to watch: CBSSN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: San Diego State -3.5
WynnBet: NL
Caesars: San Diego State -4
Season record
Utah State: 15-11 (6-7 Mountain West)
San Diego State: 15-6 (7-3 Mountain West)
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Utah State - San Diego State preview and analysis
Recent form
Utah State: lost two straight
San Diego State: won three straight
Utah State analysis
I remember the days from yesteryear when the Utah State Aggies had the best defense in the Mountain West Conference. That was always one way for them to at least contend for a conference title when it was all said and done.
But those days appear to be over, and the defense has been the Achilles heel over the past couple of weeks. Now with Utah State going to Viejas to take on the San Diego State Aztecs, they're going to need that complete effort in order to pull off the mild upset on Tuesday.
Utah State has dropped consecutive games after winning their previous five, which actually included a home win against these same Aztecs back on Jan. 26. That progress the Aggies have made to get to this point appears to have been halted for the moment. Utah State followed a 2-point overtime loss to Wyoming on Feb. 8 with an 85-72 loss to Nevada-Reno on Friday.
Aggies big man Brandon Horvath finished with 29 points and eight rebounds, but didn't come close to getting the supporting cast that the Wolf Pack got on Friday. Justin Bean had 16 point as he continued his conference Player of the Year campaign, but outside of that, nothing materialized for Utah State.
“We did not play our best tonight; they came in here a lot more hungry, and wanted it more than we did,” USU junior guard Rylan Jones said. “They were playing desperate. And they’re a good team, so you can’t let them get going like we did."
Horvath has led Utah State in scoring in four of the last five games, and if Utah State is going to have a chance to contend, he'll need to be this consistent No. 2 option with Bean.
“For us, just not who we want to be overall.” Utah State coach Ryan Odom said. “Defensively, we struggled at times, and I think some of it was related to the offense and missing some shots. We were kind of playing how we felt at that particular time. We weren’t the hungrier team. That’s pretty evident.”
San Diego State analysis
San Diego State will forever be a defensive-first team, and with the home portion of this year's matchup now on the docket, the Aztecs have an idea to tighten things up against Utah State.
SDSU has won three straight after losing to Colorado State on Feb. 4, with the most recent being a 76-64 home win against a normally dangerous Air Force team. The Falcons awaited San Diego State following its 10-point road win against San Jose State just three days prior.
Talk about a balanced scoring effort: The Aztecs shot 62 percent with only three players scoring in double figures, led by Nathan Mensah's 14 points. Leading scorer Matt Bradley was held to just 13, but the defense did enough to limit Air Force despite 27 points from AJ Walker.
“If you have three days, you can spend a day on yourself,” San Diego State coach Brian Dutcher said. “We have very little time to spend on ourselves. … We painstakingly try to find a game plan that will win these games. It’s harder on shorter prep. You talk about it. You only rep it a couple times. And I’ve been around long enough (to know) everything you say looks good on paper. You draw something up and think this will work, but unless you practice it, it’s not going to work."
San Diego State is not the presumptive favorites in the Mountain West at this point. It's become a 3-team race with Wyoming, Boise State and Colorado State. There's five games left for SDSU to turn it on at the end, as they tend to do, but this will be a good start in getting revenge on a team that exploited them in a rare way last time out.
Prediction
It's not easy to go into Viejas and replicate that scoring like Utah State did last month. I can't see it happening a second time. San Diego State is the much better team, and that loss to UNR has to have Utah State reeling a bit. San Diego State by 12
Betting trends
Utah State is 1-6 ATS as a road dog of six points or less.
The under is 37-17 when Utah State allows 80 points or more the previous game.
San Diego State is 243-206 ATS as a favorite since 1997.
San Diego State is 36-19 ATS after failing to cover in three straight games or more.
Projected starting lineup
Utah State:
PG: Steven Ashworth
SG: RJ Eytle-Rock
SF: Justin Bean
PF: Sean Bairstow
C: Brandon Horvath
San Diego State:
PG: LaMont Butler
SG: Trey Pulliam
SF: Matt Bradley
PF: Keshad Johnson
C: Nathan Mensah
Statistical leaders
Utah State:
Points: Justin Bean -- 18.5
Rebounds: Justin Bean -- 10.0
Assists: Rylan Jones -- 4.7
San Diego State:
Points: Matt Bradley -- 17.4
Rebounds: Nathan Mensah -- 6.8
Assists: Trey Pulliam -- 3.5
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
