Utah State Aggies vs New Mexico State Aggies Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 11/06/2021

by Amedeus Mastrangelo

Friday, Nov 05, 2021
Game Time: 4:00 pm ET, Saturday, November 6, 2021
Venue:  Aggie Memorial Stadium, Las Cruces, NM
Where to Watch:  FloSports

 

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  USU -18.5, NM State +18.5; Over/Under:  71 points
Bet365:  Point Spread:  USU -18.5, NM State +18.5; Over/Under:  71 points
BetMGM:  Point Spread:  USU -18.5, NM State +18.5; Over/Under:  71.5 points
 

Season Record

Utah State Aggies:  6-2 (1st place, MW Mountain)
New Mexico State Aggies:  1-7 (6th place, FBS Independents)
 
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Utah State Aggies vs New Mexico State Aggies Preview and Analysis

 
Recent Form
Utah State Aggies:  won at home on Oct. 30 against the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 51-31.
New Mexico State Aggies:  lost on the road on Oct. 24 against the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 48-34.
 
 
 

Utah State Aggies Analysis

USU is coming into this matchup with a 4-2 record overall and they are 3-0 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are getting a break from their conference schedule with this last non-conference game of the regular season for them. They are coming into this game on a 3 game winning streak after a win against Hawaii in their last game. Logan Bonner played a great game in that one as he completed 21/30 passes for 361 yards and 4 touchdowns. Elelyon Noa had a nice day on the ground as he led the team in rushing with 111 yards and 1 touchdown on 23 carries. Deven Thompkins had a very nice day as he led the receivers with 176 yards on 7 receptions while Justin McGriff, Derek Wright, Carson Terrell, and Brandon Bowling all caught 1 touchdown pass each in that one. Justin Rice led the defense in that game with 4 solo tackles and 4 assisted ones. Byron Vaughns led the defense in sacks in that game with 2 while Cash Gilliam and Monte McGary each had 1 interception for them. They have scored 251 points in their 8 games this season averaging 31.4 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 232 points against them allowing 29 PPG. Their offense is averaging 477.1 YPG while their defense is allowing 435.1 YPG.
 
 

New Mexico State Aggies Analysis

NM State is coming into this game with a 1-7 record overall and they are 1-2 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They have won 1 game this season and have lost 4 straight games since then coming into this one on that 4 game losing streak after another loss to Hawaii in their last game. Jonah Johnson really struggled in that game as he completed 24/54 passes for 228 yards and 2 interceptions. Juwaun Price had a great day on the ground as he led the team in rushing with 159 yards and 2 touchdowns on 17 carries while Johnson also had 84 yards and 2 touchdowns on 14 carries. Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda led the receivers with 82 yards on 6 receptions. Caleb Mills and Dylan Early both led the defense in that game with 7 solo tackles and 2 assisted ones each. Chris Ojoh recorded the only sack in that game for them while no one on the defense came away with an interception. They have scored 195 points in their 8 games this season averaging 24.4 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 308 points against them allowing 38.5 PPG. Their offense is averaging 382.5 YPG while their defense is allowing 464.1 YPG.
 

 

Utah State vs New Mexico State Prediction

NM State is coming into this game as an 18.5 point underdog with the current betting odds according to Draftkings Sportsbook. NM State has played in some bad games this season and they might be one of the worst teams in the FBS but recently they have been playing a bit better and they have actually covered the spread in their last 3 games straight. USU just beat Hawaii by 20 points in their last game but that has been just 1 of 2 wins this season by more than 18 points. NM State will play much better being at home here and this number is too large for USU to cover in a meaningless game for them. The best bet to place in this game is on NM State to cover the spread in this one.
 
Utah State New Mexico State Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, November 6, 2021 (4:00 pm ET start time) is USU 41 NM State 28.
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NCAAF Betting Trends

 
Utah State Aggies: 99-103 O/U in all games. 49-53 O/U in road games. 60-69 O/U when playing with 6 or less days rest. 57-66 O/U after playing a conference game.
New Mexico State Aggies: 114-146 ATS in all games. 92-111 ATS as an underdog. 35-40 ATS as a home underdog. 50-63 ATS in home games. 44-62 ATS In games played on turf. 27-50 ATS in November games.
 

Key Injuries

 
Utah State Aggies:  C. Tyler Jr. (RB) Mid Nov - Hand injury.
New Mexico State Aggies:  R. Downs III (WR) Ques Sat - Shoulder injury. W. Eget (QB) Out indefinitely - Knee injury. D. Gicinto (WR) out for season - Wrist injury.
 

Notable Quotes

 
“We clearly don’t want to give a game up here, but it doesn’t have the ramifications of losing a conference game. So I don’t know if it relieves some stress from guys’ shoulders for a week, I don’t know. We just talk about being 1-0 each week, anyway.” - Blake Anderson on playing a non-conference game this late in the season.
 
 
"Just getting the opportunity to play more and stuff like that, it helped me be able to be more comfortable in those moments. The experience really helped with the Nevada game and now I'm starting to be more comfortable and able to do things that I wasn't able to do before." - Juwaun Price on the experience of playing a lot of games.
 
 

Starting Lineups

 
Utah State Aggies
WR McGriff, Justin 
WR Scarver, Savon 
WR Thompkins, Deven 
TE Terrell, Carson 
QB Bonner, Logan 
RB Tyler Jr., Calvin 
 
New Mexico State Aggies
WR Wyatt, Jared 
WR Garcia-Castaneda, Isaiah 
WR Harrity, Cole 
TE Whitford, Thomaz 
QB Johnson, Jonah 
RB Samuels, O'Maury  
 

Statistical Leaders

 
Utah State Aggies
Passing: L. Bonner (2127)
Rushing: C. Tyler Jr. (477)
Receiving: D. Thompkins (1099)
Touchdowns: D. Thompkins (6)
 
New Mexico State Aggies
Passing: J. Johnson (1674)
Rushing: J. Price (429)
Receiving: I. Garcia-Castaneda (462)
Touchdowns: J. Price (5)
 
Coaches:
Utah State Aggies: Blake Anderson (1st season)
New Mexico State Aggies: Doug Martin (9th season)


Amedeus Mastrangelo

About the Author:

Amedeus Mastrangelo has been heavily wagering on all sports for years and plays just about everything, including sides, totals, favorites, underdogs, against the spread, alternative spreads, first half, second half, player props, and futures. The bottom line is, if Mastrangelo can see an edge in any way shape or form, then he's going to take advantage.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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