by Chuck Sommers
Tuesday, Nov 23, 2021
Game time: 1 p.m. ET; November 26, 2021
Venue: University Stadium, Albuquerque, NM
Where to watch: FS1
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Utah State -15.5
BetMGM: Utah State -15.5
Caesars: Utah State -15.5
Season record
Utah State: 8-3 (5-2 Mountain West)
New Mexico: 3-8 (1-6 Mountain West)
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Utah State - New Mexico preview and analysis
Last week
Utah State: lost 44-17 vs. Wyoming
New Mexico: lost 37-0 at Boise State
The Utah State Aggies can clinch a spot in the Mountain West Conference championship game if they defeat the New Mexico Lobos on Friday.
The Aggies can make the conference championship game for the second time since the program relocated to the Mountain West with a win and a Boise State loss.
The Broncos' matchup with the San Diego State Aztecs will kick off an hour prior with some major implications on its own: San Diego State needs to win to clinch its spot in the title game; a loss and a Fresno State win over San Jose State will put the Bulldogs in the title game next week.
Utah State put some pressure on itself after losing 44-17 on Senior Day last week to the Wyoming Cowboys. Not only did that 27-point disappointment end a five-game winning streak, but all three Utah State losses have come at home.
It was a 14-14 game after the first quarter and a 24-17 Wyoming lead at halftime. The Cowboys posted 604 total yards and forced three Utah State turnovers to blank them 20-0 in the second half.
Utah State quarterback Logan Bonner went 19 of 40 for 181 yards and two touchdowns, and Calvin Tyler Jr. ran for 109 yards on 18 carries. Trying to pinpoint where it went wrong is hard to do. Deven Thompkins even caught five passes for 67 yards and a touchdown.
The offense just went cold in the second half when it couldn't afford to. That lack of ball movement paved the way for a tired Utah State defense to try and stop running backs Titus Swen (169 yards, 2 TDs) and Xazavian Valladay (145 yards). Wyoming totaled 362 yards on the ground and averaged 7.4 yards per carry.
If there's any good news for the Aggies it's the fact they're 5-0 on the road and they're facing a Lobos team that has not scored more than 20 points since Week 2 against New Mexico State. During their three-game losing streak, the Lobos have totaled 24 points and have given up 102.
New Mexico is coming off a 37-0 loss at Boise State. The Lobos had 101 total yards of offense with its quarterbacks -- Connor Genal and Isaiah Chavez -- combining to go 2 of 7 for 18 yards and an interception. The Lobos had only 83 total rushing yards.
If past indication has anything to say regarding this series, it almost feels like a cakewalk for Utah State. The Aggies have not only won the past four meetings, but have done so by at least 13 points and have covered in each game; including as 20-point favorites in October 2018 when they won 61-19.
After that awful accuracy display against Wyoming, Bonner should be able to bounce back. He's thrown 14 touchdowns and only two interceptions in his last four starts. The 47.5% completion percentage was his lowest since a 54.8 clip against Colorado State in a 26-24 win on Oct. 22.
Prediction
New Mexico's offense has averaged just 12.4 points per game. That's the key number. While Utah State's defense isn't as scary as it is in years past, any program can look great facing New Mexico. Just look at UNLV. The Lobos have done well against the pass, which is where Utah State will excel, but that defense is going to run out of gas should it continue to give up almost 40 percent of 3rd downs. Aggies win, cover, and hopefully celebrate a division title. Utah State by 21
Betting trends
New Mexico is 1-10 ATS this season.
The under is 5-0 in New Mexico’s last five following an ATS loss.
Utah State is 1-5 ATS in its last six after a straight-up loss.
Statistical leaders
Utah State:
Passing: Logan Bonner -- 2,930 yards, 27 TD, 10 INT
Rushing: Calvin Tyler Jr. -- 686 yards, 5 TD
Receiving: Deven Thompkins -- 1,508 yards, 9 TD
New Mexico:
Passing: Terry Wilson -- 1,058 yards, 7 TD, 4 INT
Rushing: Aaron Dumas -- 658 yards, 2 TD
Receiving: Luke Wysong -- 224 yards
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
