by Chuck Sommers
Monday, Sep 26, 2022
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Venue: LaVell Edwards Stadium, Provo, UT
Where to watch: ESPN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: BYU -24
FanDuel: BYU -23.5
BetMGM: NL
Caesars: BYU -24
Season record
Utah State: 1-3 (0-1 Mountain West)
No. 19 BYU: 3-1
What a big week and some fun shake up in the top 25, as we enter Week 5 of the college football campaign. And what a week it was for our own Wayne Root with a 7-1-0 stint to continue what has been a strong start for our champion handicappers through the early stages of this college football season. But now things are going to get interesting with conference play underway and some big-time matchups in the coming weeks. You're going to want to follow our top-notch handicappers if you want to get on this action. Make sure you visit our Best Bets page to find out more.
Utah State - BYUpreview, analysis and prediction
Last week
Utah State: lost 34-24 vs. UNLV
BYU: won 38-24 vs. Wyoming
Utah State analysis
The Utah State Aggies are in deep trouble. The defending Mountain West Conference champions dropped their third straight game over the weekend, 34-24, against the surging UNLV Rebels at home on Saturday. Utah State, since winning 31-20 in Week 1 against Connecticut, has dropped results of 55-0 to Alabama, 35-7 to FCS Weber State, and now a 10-point loss to a team the Aggies defeated six straight times prior to Saturday.
Now, suddenly, the Aggies are in freefall in what’s now become a wide-open Mountain West. Things don’t get any easier going forward for Utah State, now 1-3 to start the year with a road trip to Provo to take on a BYU team that bounced back after a sound beating at the hands of Oregon two weeks ago. More on that later.
The biggest issue for Utah State right now is the play of their quarterback Logan Bonner. Normally a calm, poised presence in the pocket, Bonner was atrocious for the second straight week. He threw for 313 yards and three touchdowns, but a career-high five interceptions ultimately defined his day. Bonner is someone who has to be better if Utah State wants to eventually get to a bowl game, but to hold UNLV to 320 yards and lose by 10 because of six turnovers is about as embarrassing of an effort as you could have at this point.
Utah State’s skill positions are ultimately sound, but if Bonner doesn’t play well, the Aggies are going to fall out of the conference race and have to start fighting for bowl eligibility.
BYU analysis
After a wake-up call at the hands of the Oregon Ducks in Eugene a couple of weeks ago, the BYU Cougars bounced back in a big way with a 38-24 win over the Wyoming Cowboys at home on Saturday. Normally, a win over Wyoming wouldn’t mean much. But this is a Wyoming program that was coming off an upset victory over perceived Mountain West favorite Air Force the week prior, and it was the Jaren Hall show all night for BYU. Hall went 26 of 32 for 337 yards and four touchdowns – two of them to Keanu Hill of 9 and 68 yards to cap off a 160-yard day – and BYU got a big day on the ground from running back Miles Davis with 13 carries for 131 yards.
"I have a handful of plays I can think of right now where I didn't put us in a good situation," Hall said. "All I'm concerned about is getting better."
The Cougars trailed 10-7 in the second quarter but dominated in the second half, outgaining Wyoming 525-278. The BYU defense has been a strong suit for a long time, and it showed against lesser competition here. Given how the BYU defense has looked, it has to be salivating given how Bonner has looked. Being at home against what should be an inferior team that is scrambling for answers, I’d be shocked if the BYU defense didn’t come to play in this game.
Prediction
Utah State has not covered all year so far, and with BYU opening as high as 24-point favorites, this shouldn’t be too much of a challenge. A short week, on the road, this should be a dominant victory for BYU and a perfect tune-up before taking on Notre Dame in Las Vegas in a couple of weeks. Also, the Cougars have won 14 of its last 15 home games. BYU by 31
Betting trends
Utah State is 6-4 ATS in its last 10 road games.
Utah State is 5-1 ATS following two straight home losses in its last six.
BYU is 14-11 ATS as a favorite over the past three seasons.
BYU is 21-15 ATS in its last 36 against Mountain West teams.
Statistical leaders
Utah State:
Passing: Logan Bonner -- 753 yards, 6 TD, 8 INT
Rushing: Calvin Tyler Jr. -- 292 yards
Receiving: Brian Cobbs -- 241 yards, 1 TD
BYU:
Passing: Jaren Hall -- 1,164 yards, 9 TD, 1 INT
Rushing: Christopher Brooks -- 204 yards, 3 TD
Receiving: Keanu Hill -- 283 yards, 3 TD
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
