by Rod Pearson
Wednesday, Sep 30, 2026
Game Time: 7:30 pm ET, Saturday, October 3, 2026
Venue: Albertsons Stadium, Boise, ID
Where to Watch: CBSSN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Utah State +20.5, Boise State -20.5; Over/Under: 51.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Utah State +20.5, Boise State -20.5; Over/Under: 51.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Utah State +20.5, Boise State -20.5; Over/Under: 51.5 points
Season Record
Utah State Aggies: 1-3 (0-0) (6th place, Pac-12)
Boise State Broncos: 3-1 (0-0) (1st place, Pac-12)
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Recent Form
Utah State Aggies: won their last game at home against the Troy Trojans 21-10.
Boise State Broncos: won their last game on the road against the Western Michigan Broncos 32-7.
Utah State Aggies vs Boise State Broncos Preview and Analysis
Utah State is entering this game with a 1-3 record overall and they have a 0-0 record in their conference games too. They are 1-1 in their home games, 0-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against Troy 21-10. Grady Brosterhous was the starting QB and he completed 18/28 passes for 242 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Grady Brosterhous led the team in rushing yards with 89. Eli Wood led the receivers with 96 receiving yards on 7 receptions and 1 TD. Brevin Hamblin led the defense in that game with 12 tackles while no one on the defense recorded a sack for them. D'Angelo Mayes, David Kabongo, and Brevin Hamblin each came away with 1 interception for them in that one.
Boise State is entering this game with a 3-1 record overall and they have a 0-0 record in their conference games too. They are 2-0 in their home games, 1-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against Western Michigan 32-7. Maddux Madsen was the starting QB and he completed 16/23 passes for 204 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Dylan Riley led the team in rushing yards with 138 and 1 TD. Matt Wagner led the receivers with 94 receiving yards on 7 receptions and 2 TDs. Madden Soliai and Roman Tillmon each led the defense in that game with 6 tackles while Mikaio Edward led the defense in sacks with 1. Roman Tillmon came away with the only interception for them in that one.
Utah State vs Boise State Prediction
The current betting odds have Boise State listed as a 20.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Boise State has looked good in their games this season with their 3-1 record overall which has them right near the top of the Pac-12. They have looked great on their home field too with their 2-0 home record this season. Meanwhile, Utah State hasn't looked good in their games this season with their 1-3 record overall which has them right near the bottom of the Pac-12. They have been a terrible road team too with their 0-2 road record this year. Utah State is coming off a 21-10 win over Troy in their last one, but that was their 1st win of the season. They have looked terrible in their games so far and even though they had a really tight game against Washington, they also lost at home to a team from the FCS. This Utah State team doesn't have a ton of talent this season and Boise State is looking like a team with the potential to make the CFP. Boise State has been crushing opponents all year and their only loss was against a ranked Oregon team who they were leading for most of that game. That win didn't look as good when Oregon lost to Oklahoma State, but it is starting to age better now as Oregon is still ranked and starting to rebound. That was still a really good game for them against a really good program and now they are coming off a 32-7 win over Western Michigan who won the MAC last season. Boise State has already made a CFP appearance in the 12-team playoff, so they will be looking to get back there after a down year last season. This is also their 1st year of being in the Pac-12 and this is their 1st conference game in thei9r new conference, so they will be looking to make a splash in this 1st game and show that they are the team to beat. Boise State has also looked a lot better in home games over the years, so look for them to beat up on a bad Utah State team here. The best way to place a bet here is on Boise State to cover the spread in this game.
Utah State Boise State Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, October 3, 2026 (7:30 pm ET start time) is Boise State 49 Utah State 7.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Utah State Aggies: 8-19 ATS on the road vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 8 or more passing yards/att. 18-25 ATS on the road versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=5.9 yards/play. 11-6 OVER as a road underdog of 14.5 to 21 points. 26-16 OVER when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%).
Boise State Broncos: 14-5 ATS vs. good passing defenses - allowing 5.75 or less passing yards/att. 33-15 ATS when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. <=25%). 15-8 ATS vs. poor offensive teams - scoring 17 or less points/game. 26-17 OVER when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%).
Key Injuries
Utah State Aggies: None.
Boise State Broncos: S. Gaines (RB) Questionable - Upper Body.
Notable Quotes
“It’s been a long three weeks, just to be honest. To have someone just start the game like that, I think our team probably couldn’t have scripted that better.” - Bronco Mendenhall after his team’s win against Troy in their last game.
“We talked about having a complete game. And I don’t love the touchdown late. I’m a competitor, so I’ll be the first to say it. But man, our guys—in all three phases—started fast. They won the middle eight. We continued to chip away and play really good football, sound football, against a really good football team. Super proud of our players." - Spencer Danielson after his team’s win against WMU in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Utah State Aggies
WR Wood, Eli
WR Garcia, Anthony
WR Robinson, Javon
TE Kaio, Kache
QB Hillstead, McCae
RB Jacobs, Javen
Boise State Broncos
WR Wright, Akeem
WR Jones, Rasean
WR Bates, Cam
TE Wagner, Matt
QB Madsen, Maddux
RB Riley, Dylan
Statistical Leaders
Utah State Aggies
Passing: Grady Brosterhous (635)
Rushing: Grady Brosterhous (222)
Receiving: Eli Wood (286)
Touchdowns: Eli Wood (3)
Boise State Broncos
Passing: Maddux Madsen (814)
Rushing: Dylan Riley (592)
Receiving: Rasean Jones (271)
Touchdowns: Dylan Riley (3)
Coaches:
Utah State Aggies: Bronco Mendenhall (2nd season)
Boise State Broncos: Spencer Danielson (4th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
