by Chuck Sommers
Friday, Oct 07, 2022
Time: 7 p.m. ET
Venue: Maverik Stadium, Logan, UT
Where to watch: FS1
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Air Force -10.5
FanDuel: Air Force -10.5
BetMGM: Air Force -10.5
Caesars: Air Force -10.5
Season record
Air Force: 4-1 (1-1 Mountain West)
Utah State: 1-4 (0-1 Mountain West)
Another week, another crazy set of circumstances in college football! Georgia almost loss, Bryce Young left but Alabama still won, etc. All the craziness, all the drama through a month into the season. What in the world are we getting next? How about starting with a 6-1-0 run from Kyle Hunter this past weekend? Our top handicapper in the college football realm had himself a very good week. What will next week have in store with a lot of shakings in the top 25 to be expected? Make sure to follow all of our champion handicappers and their picks in our Best Bets section, where you can expect more of Kyle's and others' picks to get you on the right side of winning this week at bigal.com.
Air Force - Utah State preview, analysis and prediction
Last week
Air Force: won 13-10 vs. Navy
Utah State: lost 38-26 at No. 19 BYU
It might be time to brace for one of the bigger butt kickings of this weekend because it’s going to be a rout between the Air Force Falcons and Utah State Aggies in Logan on Saturday. Now, you’re probably thinking: “Chuck, how could you say that? You do know Utah State hung tough with BYU last week and only lost by 12?” You mean to tell me that if BYU actually cared 2% of that game that it still would’ve been a 12-point win? BYU would’ve ran all over the Aggies had they actually cared. Especially because of the fact that Logan Bonner didn’t play due to injury. Cooper Legas filled in to throw 188 yards and two touchdowns, while running for 54 and another score there, but threw two interceptions. Bonner is out for the year due to a season-ending foot injury.
It might be time to brace for one of the bigger butt kickings of this weekend because it’s going to be a rout between the Air Force Falcons and Utah State Aggies in Logan on Saturday. Now, you’re probably thinking: “Chuck, how could you say that? You do know Utah State hung tough with BYU last week and only lost by 12?” You mean to tell me that if BYU actually cared 2% of that game that it still would’ve been a 12-point win? BYU would’ve ran all over the Aggies had they actually cared. Especially because of the fact that Logan Bonner didn’t play due to injury. Cooper Legas filled in to throw 188 yards and two touchdowns, while running for 54 and another score there, but threw two interceptions. Bonner is out for the year due to a season-ending foot injury.
"He's waited for his opportunity and when it showed up, he did a phenomenal job," Aggies coach Blake Anderson said. "I'm sure like any quarterback, there's a couple of plays he'd love to have back. But, man, he gave us a chance to win."
Calvin Tyler Jr. had a great game by running for 104 yards on 18 carries, but the defense – which has been a huge problem all season – could not stop BYU quarterback Jaren Hall after throwing 274 yards and three touchdowns, while Kody Epps torched the Utah State secondary for 86 yards on five receptions and one touchdown.
I would chalk this up to Utah State just wanting it more and BYU taking its foot off the gas for longer periods of time. This has nothing to do with Utah State being any better than they were two weeks ago. Short travel north combined with comfortability in the surroundings made Utah State play like it was a home game. Even though there was nothing but BYU blue around the entire stadium. Enough said.
And if BYU blue was bad, the Aggies are going to hate thinking of Air Force blue invading their stadium on Saturday. The presumptive favorites in the Mountain West Conference right now are coming off a 13-10 win over Navy in the Commander In Chief Cup. The story was the Air Force defense holding Navy to just 10 points and holding the Midshipmen to just 243 total yards of offense. Air Force wasn’t any better with 356 total yards, but Haaziq Daniels actually made a difference with his arm as the quarterback went 6 of 8 for 156 yards and the only touchdown for the Falcons – a 67-yard pass to David Cormier. Leading running back Brad Roberts ran for 108 yards on 23 carries.
"It was tense but we wouldn't want it any other way," Cormier said. "A service academy game — that's how they go."
Air Force’s run through these first five games has been anything but a cakewalk. That lone loss to Wyoming earlier in the year has put some doubt in some minds, but Air Force can’t afford to look too far ahead. There’s a potential conference showdown next week in Las Vegas against the surprising 4-1 UNLV Rebels.
"They played their hearts out," Air Force coach Troy Calhoun said. "Our guys did, too."
Prediction
With Utah State’s defense playing like it should be in the FCS, this should be a runaway game for Air Force. They’re about to run all over the Aggies defense and make them question why in the world they didn’t schedule UConn for 12 times this year. Air Force by 24
Betting trends
Air Force is 6-3 ATS in its last nine road games.
Air Force is 13-8 ATS as a favorite over the last three seasons.
Air Force is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 after a game at home.
Utah State is 1-5 ATS as an underdog between 10.5 and 14 points since 1992.
Utah State is 3-4 ATS off a non-conference game the last three years.
Statistical leaders
Air Force:
Passing: Haaziq Daniels -- 374 yards, 4 TD
Rushing: Brad Roberts -- 573 yards, 7 TD
Receiving: David Cormier -- 209 yards, 3 TD
Utah State:
Passing: Logan Bonner -- 753 yards, 6 TD, 6 INT
Rushing: Calvin Tyler Jr. -- 396 yards
Receiving: Brian Cobbs -- 337 yards, 3 TD
Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert football picks today. And if you enjoyed this Air Force Falcons - Utah State Aggies prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily college football projections and previews.
Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
