Game Time: 8:00 PM ET, Friday, March 4th, 2022 

Venue:  Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, Pelicans

Where to Watch:  NBA League Pass

DraftKings:  Spread:  Jazz -3.5 ; O/U 228

Fanduel:  Spread:  Jazz -3.5; O/U 228.5

Caesars:  Spread: Jazz - 3.5; O/U 228

Jazz: 39-22, 4th place Western Conference

Pelicans: 26-36, 10th place Western Conference

A Western Conference matchup between the #4 team who may have hit their ceiling and the #10 team who may be very slowly climbing out of the basement.  The Utah Jazz have been good for a few years now.  They are a strong franchise with a rabid fan base and every decade they cycle back into contention.  The Jazz have never won the Championship… and they may never do it at all.  The problem in Utah is that mid-level free agents will not go there to live and play if they have any other equal or near equal options.  Salt Lake City is boring.  Salt Lake City is cold.  Salt Lake City is plain milk.  This iteration of the Jazz has two very good star players and some depth of role players at all the other positions.  The problem with SG Donovan Mitchell and C Rudy Gobert is they are great, but neither is a top five guy… or a MVP candidate… or an all-timer.  Those types of stars are found on all the teams the Jazz would have to go through to get a ring.  The New Orleans Pelicans flat out do not have star players.  They have quality players, they have young players, they have promising players… but they do not have a star in the bunch.  They are not a strong franchise with a strong fanbase… just the reverse.  They are owned by football people and rooted for by a small contingent of fun people who would rather be at a Mardi Gras parade or any football game. To make matters worse the Pelicans have the terrible drama of PF Zion Williamson the #1 pick in 2019 simply not playing because of injury, but also because he and his family want to be anywhere else… except maybe Salt Lake City.  ( Sad because if Zion were healthy, the Jazz would be the absolute best fit for him when he asks out of New Orleans ).   Still sometimes the pelicans sneak up on a team like the jazz and get a win… Let’s look at the numbers and see if there is a great betting opportunity here.

The Utah Jazz have won 9 of their last ten games… oddly enough losing only to the Los Angeles Lakers.  They went 6-4 ATS during that stretch.  With 6 Unders and 4 Overs.  The team relies heavily on the tandem of leading scorer Donovan Mitchell 26.1 ppg and leading rebounder C Rudy Gobert 14.9 rpg.  This duo are not only good at what they do, but are supported by a very interesting other 3 guys in the starting 5.  PF Royce O’Neale is a placeholder… when the team drafts next they will desperately be looking for his replacement… still though, Royce brings athleticism and a little defense to the group… his 7.5 ppg doesn’t fully represent what he brings to the table.  SF Bojan Bogdanovic is simply a good scorer.  He shoots the ball well and pulls in 17.7 ppg as a result… he needs a fire lit under him to get defensive play… but he isn’t helpless on that end.  The PG is an NBA legend, 15 year vet Mike Conley.  When Mike led the Grizzlies as a younger man he was a multiple time all-star who led the team in scoring and assists.  His pairing with Marc Gasol was the stuff of “almost legend”... since they never pushed all the way to the top.  Today Mike is a reliable PG on a good team.  His experience and court vision will keep this undersized guy in the league for another 5 seasons if he stays healthy.  

The New Orleans Pelicans have won 6 of their last 10 games.  A remarkable uptick for this team.  During this stretch they went 6-4 ATS.  What changed?... You thought these guys were terrible?.. Well they traded for Portland Trail Blazers SG CJ McCollum without giving up a whole lot.  The result is CJ has taken a world of weight off of SF Brandon Ingram’s shoulders.  CJ is now the leading scorer and assist man on the club with 26 and 6.  Brandon was the team’s leading scorer at 22.4 ppg and 5.5 apg… the team now gets both sets of stats working for them without losing any of what C Jonas Valanciunas is good at:  rebounds and blocks.  CJ McCollum may not be a star, but he is and always has been a great scorer.  His presence always this team to be good now… AND prepare for the future as they still have a few extra draft picks coming their way from the Anthony Davis and JRue Holiday trades a few seasons back.  This team could get better in a hurry… In fact they may just be one player away… Unfortunately that one player will not be Zion Williamson and the Pelicans will be stuck with Jaxson Hayes at PF.

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The Utah Jazz are 39-22 on the season, but 27-32-2 ATS.  They have logged 30 Overs, 30 Unders, and 1 Push.  They are 17-12 in road games.

The New Orleans Pelicans are 26-36 on the season, but 31-30-1 ATS.  They have notched 23 Overs, 37 Unders, and 2 Push.  They are 14-17 in home games.

The Utah Jazz are 2nd in scoring with 114.1 ppg, 5th in rebounds with 46 per game, and 26th in AST/TO ratio with 1.6.  They are 10th on defense while allowing 107.4 ppg from opponents,

The New Orleans Pelicans are 23rd in scoring with 107.1 ppg, 9th in rebounds with 45.3 per game, and 17th in AST/TO ratio 1.7. On defense they are 14th while allowing 109.9 ppg from opponents. 

Our prediction for Friday, March 4th is….  Jazz 118 - Pelicans 104

The Jazz have too much scoring going up against a softer (not soft, but softer) New Orleans defense.  The result is that if you are looking for an underdog to cover a spread?... Look elsewhere.  The Safe Bet is for Jazz to win and cover.  The bet to AVOID is UNDER.  Donovan Mitchell can really go off against a defensive backcourt made up of CJ McCollum and Herbert Jones. In reverse, CJ McCollum can get plenty of garbage buckets to cross that 30 point threshold… it won’t get the Pelicans a win but it will grow the total unexpectedly.

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Utah is 55-40 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins the last 2 seasons.
Utah is 126 Over-95 Under after a combined score of 225 or more since 1996.
New Orleans is 3-1 ATS vs Utah the last 3 seasons.

Jazz: PG Jared Butler (ankle) Out

Pelicans:  SF Larry Nance Jr (knee) Out ** PG Kira Lewis JR (knee) Out ** PF Zion Williamson (foot) Out

Jazz:  PF Royce ONeale, SF Bojan Bogdanovic, C Rudy Gobert, PG Mike Conley, SG Donovan Mitchell

Pelicans: PF Jaxson Hayes, SF Brandon Ingram, C Jonas Valanciunas, SG CJ McCollum, PG Herbert Jones

Jazz

Points: Donovan Mitchell 26.1

Assists: Mike Conley 5.3

Rebounds: Rudy Gobert 14.9

Steals: Donovan Mitchell 14.9

Blocks: Rudy Gobert 2.3

Pelicans

Points: CJ McCollum 26.6

Assists: CJ McCollum 6.0

Rebounds: Jonas Valanciunas 11.6

Steals: Herbert Jones 1.5

Blocks: Jonas Valanciunas 0.9

Jazz: Quin Snyder

Pelicans: Willie Green