Utah Jazz vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction, Spread and Trends to Watch - 04/25/2022

by James Q

Sunday, Apr 24, 2022

Utah Jazz vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction, Spread and Trends to Watch - 04/25/2022


Game Time: 9:30 PM ET, Monday, April 25th, 2022 
Venue:   American Airlines Arena, Dallas, Texas
Where to Watch: TNT

Opening NBA Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Mavs -3; O/U 213
Fanduel:  Mavs -3; O/U 213
BetMGM: Mavs -2.5; O/U 212.5

NBA Standings

Jazz: 49-33, 5th place Western Conference; 2-2 in the series
Mavs: 52-30, 4th place Western Conference; 2-2 in the series

An NBA Western Conference First round playoff series that is steeped in intrigue and indecision. This series is all knotted up at 2-2.   We are currently guaranteed 6 games and have a possibility for a 7th… and it is the 1st round!  The ups and downs of this thing are mind-boggling … The Utah Jazz won Game 1 and won ATS while PG Luka Doncic was playing for the Mavericks.  Luka hurt himself however and had to sit out two games… The Mavericks won those two games and won ATS. Luka returned for the Mavs in game 4 and the Mavs lost Game 4, but won ATS.  It is earth shattering that the best player in the series BY FAR is having a negative effect on his team!  It also could be a bunch of silly coincidences… but as my network of basketball experts keep pointing out:  Luka’s usage rate is too high.. Every Mavericks play either starts or finishes with Luka… which gives the Utah defense a single important thing to watch for and play off of. When Luka was out the Jazz had no idea what was about to hit them… and they probably didn’t even know the name of the Mavs scrub who ended up torching them.  The Jazz on the other hand have been the same old consistent Utah Jazz for years now… SG Donovan Mitchell is a great NBA player who is capable of big games… C Rudy Gobert is an amazing NBA defensive player who is capable of big defensive nights and lots of dunks and putbacks.  If the Jazz stay consistent and the Mavs keep bobbing up and down?... Where does that leave our great betting opportunity? The series is 3-1 ATS for the Mavs while 2 Over and 2 Under…. Let’s study the numbers.

The Utah Jazz are 2-2 in the series, but 1-3 ATS.  They barely won the last game 100-99 with the deciding basket being an alley-oop lob from SG Donovan Mitchell to C Rudy Gobert.  Dallas got a chance for a final shot but did not connect as the buzzer sounded.  In game 4 Jordan Clarkson, Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert did practically all the scoring for the Jazz… that is typical of most Jazz games.  Occasionally Bogdonovic or Royce O'Neale step up for a bigger than usual game… but not often enough. Pg Mike Conl;ey has started to really look his age.  Mike was the #4 overall pick in 2007 for the Memphis Grizzlies and is just shy of a Hall of Fame career… The diminishing numbers are emblematic of a 15 season vet who stands at just 6’1.  Conley is running out of time.. The Jazz have zero shot at a ring this season.

The Dallas Mavericks are 2-2, but 3-1 ATS in this series.  The odd thing about this roster is they have been constructed over the last few years entirely to support Luka Doncic.. But when Luka missed two games… the Mavs got two wins.  In game 4 Luka had 30 points, 10 rebounds and 4 assists and SG Jalen Brunson had another fine game with 23 points, 5 rbs, and 4 asts.  Three other Mavs scored in double digits… C Dwight Powell 11 points, SF Reggie Bullock 11 points, and SF Dorian Finney-Smith 11 points.  So what in the hell caused them to lose?... The Watching Effect.  The watching effect is a real thing that happens to average players when they play with selfish great players… the end up watching that guy dribble the ball around.  I know, I know… Luke gets tons of double digit assist games… But not in loses he doesn’t.  If owner Mark Cuban is going to bother having Supervillian Jason Kidd as the head coach… why not have Ason ask Luka to focus on assists and pushing the tempo.  Luka was 11-21 from the field and 4-10 from 3… and 4 turnovers.  Just pass the damn ball superstar.

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Utah Jazz vs Dallas Mavericks  Preview and Analysis

Recent Form

Utah is 51-35 on the season, but 34-48-4 ATS.  They have logged 39 Overs, 45 Unders, and 2 Push.  They are 21-22 in home games.

The Mavericks are 54-32 on the season, but 49-36-1 ATS.  They have notched 33 Overs, 52 Unders, and 1 Push.

Offensive Analysis

The Jazz are 7th in the league in scoring with 113.6 ppg, 3rd in rebounds with 46.3 per game, and 27th in AST/TO ratio with 1.6.  On defense they rank 10th while holding opponents to 107.6 ppg.

The Mavericks are 24th in scoring with 108.0 ppg,m 24th in rebounds with 43, and 9th in AST/TO ratio with 1.9.  On defense they rank 2nd with 104.7 ppg from opponents.  
 

Utah Jazz vs Dallas Mavericks Game Prediction 


Our prediction for Monday, April 25th is….. Dallas 110 - Utah 102

Dallas will win and win ATS at home.  They feel cheated from game 4 and will dig in their heels.  Hopefully Jason Kidd has a game plan that goes deeper than WATCH.  Bet the home team… avoid the O/U.

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NBA Betting Trends

Utah is 49-75 ATS off a point spread loss the last 3 seasons
Dallas is 4-2 ATS versus Utah at Dallas the last 3 seasons.
Dallas is 58-44 ATS versus Utah since 1996.
Dallas is 14-28 Under at home this season
  

Injury List

Utah: C Udoka Azubuike (foot) Out 

Mavs: SG Tim Hardaway Jr (foot) Out ** PG Frank Ntilikina (ill) Quest

Starting Lineups

Jazz: PF Royce O'Neale, SF Bojan Bogdanovic, C Rudy Gobert, PG Mike Conley, SG Donovan Mitchell

Mavs: PG Luka Doncic, SG Jalen Brunson, SF Dorian Finney Smith, PF Reggie Bullock, C Dwight Powell


Coaches

Jazz: Quin Snyder
Mavericks: Jason Kidd


James Q

About the Author:

James Q. has been involved with sports and gambling his entire life. A former division 1 scholarship basketball player, James understands sports (and especially basketball) inside-and-out. Following his basketball playing days, James parlayed his gambling skills into a semi-pro poker career. James resides in Los Angeles, and especially loves the Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Rams, and Los Angeles Dodgers. And when he isn't betting on sports (and writing about it), James can be found performing stand-up comedy on the Sunset Strip.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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