Utah Jazz vs. Dallas Mavericks: NBA Playoffs Prediction, Preview, Picks & Odds - 4/28/2022

by Chuck Sommers

Wednesday, Apr 27, 2022
Western Conference First Round, Game 6 -- Mavericks lead best-of-7 series, 3-2

Time: 10 p.m. ET
Venue: Vivint Arena, Salt Lake City, Utah
Where to watch: TNT

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks


DraftKings: Mavs -2.5
BetMGM: Mavs -2.5
Caesars: Mavs -2.5

Sean Murphy has gone an impressive 36-23-0 in the last 30 days in the NBA, reeling in a haul off $10,780. The playoffs are finally here and it's time to get excited! You don't want to miss out on these expert picks before the postseason revs up, do you? Catch Sean's plays available right now at the Shop Picks page, where you can find all of the Best Bets from our champion sports handicappers.

Mavericks - Jazz preview and analysis


Luka Doncic is fully healthy. The Utah Jazz are in trouble.

That’s why this series is not going back to Dallas, with the Mavericks ending it in six games on Thursday when this first-round series shifts back to Salt Lake City, putting the basketball universe one step closer to what will be an insane second-round series with the Phoenix Suns.

Unless, you know, they choke too up 3-2.

But in the case of the Mavs, they did exactly what they needed to do through the first three games without their superstar. Jalen Brunson not only earned himself a gigantic payday this summer, but showed he is certainly capable of being a guy that can be a star on a team, which is why it’s imperative for the Mavs to re-sign him this summer.

But the last two games have been about Doncic, coming back from his strained calf and now looking like he hasn’t missed a beat. After going over 30 in that tough Game 4 loss, Doncic went for 33 points and 13 rebounds in the Mavs’ 102-77 dominant Game 5 win in what was their most dominant defensive performance of the season.

"For his second game, it looks like he's been playing this whole series," coach Jason Kidd said. "His conditioning, his effort on the defensive end. As we talk about rebounding, he's one of the best for us and he did that tonight."

The Mavs have dominated this series, for lack of a better term, based on their small-ball lineups and showing the ability to get Rudy Gobert out of the paint. That’s worked for the most part, but it appeared the Jazz were prepared to counter that work in Game 4 after showing the ability to go small in Game 3.

With Doncic back in the lineup, not only can Dallas counter the small-ball lineup with the best all-around player they have, but Doncic’s rebounding can at least force Utah to not go entirely small because Doncic can outrebound everyone.

And when it comes to overall matchups, the fact the Mavs have proven to win in Salt Lake City makes this very much plausible that Dallas closes it out in six. I’m also thinking that while Donovan Mitchell is fine after having a hamstring issue, the fact he shot as badly as he did, I don’t know if it’s going to be healthy as he want it to be from an explosive standpoint.

The Jazz shot 38 percent from the floor and went just 3 of 30 from 3-point range. Not that I expect that to happen again back home, but the Jazz aren’t going to be so dominant if Jordan Clarkson remains their No. 1 option.

"They've scrambled extremely hard," said Mitchell, who is shooting 20% from 3-point range after being well over 40% the past two playoff years. "It's a lot to continuously run teams off the line, and they've done a good job of it. They've made us uncomfortable."

Prediction


The Mavs have not clinched a series since winning the title in 2011. It’s Luka’s time to finally get to the next round, and I firmly believe he’s going to do what he can to get it done. They were up 3-2 on the Clippers last season in that weird series. Defensively, this team is much better and will make the stops necessary to get the win and move on, with Phoenix soon to follow. Mavs by 10

Betting trends


Mavs are 71-45 ATS on the road in the past three seasons.

Mavs are 15-8 ATS against Northwest Division opponents this season.

Jazz are 5-17 ATS against Southwest Division opponents this season.

Jazz are 15-35 ATS the past three seasons off a road loss.

Jazz are 0-7 ATS this season off a road loss by 10 points or more.

Projected starting lineup


Mavs:
PG: Luka Doncic
SG: Jalen Brunson
SF: Reggie Bullock
PF: Dorian Finney-Smith
C: Dwight Powell

Jazz:
PG: Mike Conley
SG: Donovan Mitchell
SF: Bojan Bogdanovic
PF: Royce O'Neale
C: Rudy Gobert

Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert basketball picks today. And if you enjoyed this Dallas Mavericks - Utah Jazz prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily NBA projections and previews.

Chuck Sommers

About the Author:

Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

© 2024 Al McMordie's BigAl.com. All Rights Reserved.